MBA now forecasts that commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers will close a record $652 billion of loans backed by income-producing properties this year.

Total commercial/multifamily debt outstanding rose to $3.46 trillion at the end of the first three months of the year.

Uncertainty surrounds strategies for managing this watershed change, as many firms wait on the sidelines for others to take the lead, writes MBA’s Jamie Woodwell.

In addition to the credit curve coming down, it has also flattened, with the spread between single‐A and triple‐A CMBS bonds tightening from 207 bps at the end of 2015 to 84 basis points at the end of 2019.

More loans closed for multifamily properties in 2018 than for any other property type—$266.4 billion, or 46 percent of total volume, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The market as a whole ended the year roughly flat compared to 2017, continuing a plateau we’ve seen in mortgage borrowing and lending since 2015.

Expect a surge in maturing loans held in CMBS, mortgage REITs, debt funds and other shorter-term capital sources, write MBA’s Jamie Woodwell and Reggie Booker.

Private funds, mortgage REITs and other investor-driven debt providers accounted for nearly 13 percent of intermediated mortgages last year.