Wizards, Predictions and Commercial Real Estate
While we can’t actually see into the future, we’ve become more adept at making predictions that pan out.
One of the characters in literature that I’ve found particularly memorable is Merlin. Assuming you didn’t get as caught up in the Arthurian legend as I did back in my college years, Merlin was a wizard and mentor to the boy who would become King Arthur (you may know him as the boy who pulled the sword from the stone). In the more whimsical version of the story, T.H. White’s The Once & Future King, Merlin lived his life backwards.
Yes, you read that right. He already knew the future because it had happened in his past. He felt limited in how he could apply this knowledge in his teachings because he got hung up on not knowing what Arthur had already done since that was in Merlin’s future, but let’s stick to the basic concept. He already knew the future.
Imagine having a mentor like that. Someone who definitely knows what’s to come and can advise you accordingly. You’d still have to figure out how to get yourself to the right outcome for you, but they could guide you knowing for sure what you’ll be dealing with. (Hopefully, they wouldn’t be as cryptic as Merlin–and you’d have to be willing to listen to their advice, of course.)
What would that be like, being taught by someone who knew the future? What would you do with that information? You could argue that we already do know what’s to come, since history tends to repeat itself, but that’s on a pretty broad basis. Having a few more specifics would be helpful. Especially in today’s particularly volatile market, where so many unexpected events and changes have impacted the economy and by extension the commercial real estate business, creating a lot of uncertainty, as our CPE Voices webinar panelists recently discussed while providing a midyear outlook.
The good news is that despite such challenges as the Iran War driving up oil prices, interest rates remaining higher for longer, prolonged slow office sector recovery and the ongoing evolution of AI, CRE seems to be continuing on a roughly predictable path. Back in December, we produced a list of top trends and issues to watch, and an assessment at midyear shows most of them moving as anticipated, with only a few surprises or ambiguities. The story for the second half is more one of nuance, Dees Stribling writes in this “CRE Trends at Midyear,” with adjustments necessary due to property sector, geographic location and other variations.
I’m pretty confident none of us has a mentor who lives backwards, and I doubt anyone has any other way of knowing the future with certainty, either. Fortunately, growth in the ability to measure and analyze data appears to be producing increasingly more accurate predictions and strategies to achieve intended outcomes. Even if it’s not as fun as having a Merlin in your life.
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