How Will AI Reshape CRE Financing?

AI has already begun to shape commercial real estate financing, and its future effects are expected to be significant. While the anticipated benefits are manyfold, there are potential downside risks that need to be carefully considered. 

AI tools for commercial real estate are proliferating rapidly and are expected over the next few years to make CRE financing more efficient, more data-driven and more competitive.

AI can analyze borrower financials, lease rolls, expense histories, market comp data, environmental risks and property-level performance in minutes versus days, resulting in a faster, potentially more accurate underwriting process that can enable lenders to handle greater deal flow without increasing staffing. AI can also handle repetitive analytical work such as spreadsheets, rent rolls and cash-flow modeling, which will likely reduce the need for junior analysts.

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AI-driven analytic tools are beginning to integrate real-time transaction data, satellite imagery and traffic analysis, demographic shifts and competing projects. The positive impact is faster BOVs and appraisals, more transparent asset pricing and less reliance on lagging comparable data.

Soon, loan files, cash-flow models and pro formas may become more uniform, “machine-readable” and comparable across lenders, enabling borrowers to shop deals more easily while lenders will likely face more competitive pressure on pricing and terms.

Once the transaction is closed, AI can be used for continuous monitoring of property performance and market dynamics, resulting in improved risk management, more proactive asset management, early detection of potential distress and potentially lower default rates.

Yes, but…

As the industry progresses down the AI highway, there are some caution flags to consider. AI only considers all the data and information that it has previously assimilated.

AI cannot think creatively or outside the box, at least not yet. There can be no easy substitute for critical thinking when it comes to making important lending or investment decisions. Analysts and underwriters must not simply accept the AI generated results.

Even at the junior analyst level, it is important to critically analyze AI-generated responses, identify possible weaknesses and inaccuracies, and integrate new information with existing knowledge. They must be encouraged to envision new solutions, make unexpected connections, and judge when a novel concept is likely to be fruitful. Although it may sound appealing to reduce or eliminate the need for junior analysts, industry leaders need to recognize that many creative solutions come from young minds not boxed in to a particular way of thinking. 

As the industry gravitates to a more uniform, machine-readable approach, there is a danger of overreliance on the AI recommendations or systemic algorithmic bias in credit and investment decisions that don’t work in markets with rapidly shifting dynamics. And today’s markets are more volatile than ever.

Further, use of public AI platforms such as ChatGPT are not necessarily secure. Both queries and results containing confidential information or proprietary internal processes may be at risk of unwanted exposure. Therefore, it may be important to firewall AI platforms.

AI is likely to make CRE financing more efficient, more data-driven and more competitive. However, AI cannot substitute for critically needed human judgement, especially in consideration of the inherent complexity and uniqueness of every transaction.

Jay Maddox is principal/capital markets for Avison Young.