Global Recession Risk Remains Low, But for How Long?

RICS Economist Tarrant Parsons weighs in on today’s fluid market conditions.

Tarrant Parsons, Economist, RICS. Image courtesy of RICS
Tarrant Parsons, Economist, RICS. Image courtesy of RICS

In the first three months of this year, real estate sentiment around the globe continued to improve, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ latest survey. The organization’s Global Commercial Property Monitor found that occupier metrics are gaining traction, with appetite for office and retail slowly returning.

Market conditions are strengthening across North America, with demand in the U.S. rising across all sectors for the first time since the pandemic outbreak. In Asia Pacific, the latest results of the quarterly survey are painting a mixed picture, with a positive tone in India, Australia and Singapore, and a more cautious one in China and Hong Kong. In the Middle East and Africa, the feedback pointed toward a solid recovery, while occupier and investment sentiment indices in European markets both saw improvements.


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Nevertheless, commercial real estate professionals across the world remain cautious, considering the geopolitical context, high inflation, and monetary tightening. In this podcast episode hosted by Commercial Property Executive Senior Editor Laura Calugar, RICS Economist Tarrant Parsons explains why he doesn’t expect a global recession at this point. However, he admits there are lots of reasons to be concerned about the near-term prospects for the global economy.

Here are the main topics Parsons covered with CPE:

  • Current challenges for the CRE industry (1:02)
  • How tenant demand differs at a regional level (2:16)
  • Appetite for offices and retail returning (4:10)
  • Valuations and monetary tightening (5:55)
  • Q1 survey results for North America, APAC, the Middle East and Africa, Europe (8:05)
  • Expectations for the remainder of the year and 2023 (14:54)

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