Larry Kay
The Positive Effect of 2003
By Larry Kay In 2013, about 65 percent of the year’s maturities will be from the 2003 vintage year. We expect that the 2003 vintage-year maturities will benefit from loan amortization, property appreciation and the positive spread on 10-year Treasury rates, which averaged about 4 percent in 2003. As a result, the 2003-vintage maturities will have a much more dramatic effect on this year’s maturity and delinquency performance. With our expectation that 2013 should be a good year for loan maturity payoffs, it should also be positive for CMBS delinquencies, including the underlying property-type delinquency rates and amounts. Fundamentals in…
Officed Up
By Larry Kay The CMBS delinquency rate has reached a new high at the end of each month through the first half of this year. At the end of June, the rate was 9.62 percent, up from 9.43 percent last month and 9.07 percent one year ago. The amount delinquent increased to $44.75 billion in June, although the monthly increase was less than 1 percent. The amount delinquent movements have been negligible each month this year, ranging from an increase of 2.3 percent to a decrease of 2.4 percent. Despite the fluctuations, however, the amount delinquent at mid-year was actually…


