17 Percent of Commercial Mortgage Balances to Mature in 2026

March 24, 2026

Trends point to a forecast of stronger years ahead for originations.

A total of 17 percent ($875 billion) of $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors is scheduled to mature in 2026, a 9 percent decrease from the $957 billion that was scheduled to mature in 2025. This is according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes.

While commercial mortgage maturities remain elevated in 2026, the 9 percent decline from 2025 suggests that the market is beginning to move past the peak of the maturity wave in recent years. The variation across investor types and property sectors underscores the importance of asset quality, capital structure and lender flexibility, as borrowers navigate refinancing decisions in changing market conditions.

The data from this survey show that 2025 was a transition year, with the maturity wall shrinking after several years where the wall of scheduled maturities had been increasing. Even though longer-term interest rates were little changed over the course of the year, lenders were no longer simply extending loan terms.

$875 billion in scheduled maturities in 2026 and $652 billion in 2027 will fuel additional lending activity, and stabilization in property values will also continue to increase transaction activity. All in, these trends lead us to forecast stronger years for origination volume, even though we are forecasting that the Federal Reserve is close to end of its current rate-cutting cycle.

Loan maturities by property and lender types

The loan maturities vary significantly depending on investor and property type groups. Among loans backed by hotel/motel properties, 30 percent will come due in 2026, as will 23 percent of industrial property loans and 17 percent of office property loans. Thirteen percent of mortgages backed by multifamily properties will mature in 2026, as will 15 percent of those backed by health-care and 17 percent back by office properties.

$396 billion (21 percent) of the outstanding balance of mortgages serviced by depositories, $200 billion (25 percent) in CMBS, CLOs or other ABS, and $163 billion (29 percent) of the mortgages held by credit companies, in warehouse or by other lenders will mature in 2026. Just $39 billion (4 percent) of the outstanding balance of multifamily and health care mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae will mature in 2026. Life insurance companies will see $76 billion (10 percent) of their outstanding mortgage balances mature in 2026.

—Posted on March 24, 2026

Mortgage Bankers Association