Look For Easier Money—But Not Too Easy

As the Federal Reserve begins a policy reset, five macro forces will shape the U.S. financial picture this year, and therefore the nation’s commercial real estate industry. That’s what real estate lender Parkview Financial stated in its new 2026 outlook.

The Fateful Five, as we’ll call them for now, are:

1. The end of quantitative tightening and the return of quantitative easing

The Fed’s halt to balance-sheet runoff and Reserve Management Purchases program are designed to have ample reserves in the banking system. “In practice, this is quantitative easing by another name,” according to the outlook.

2. A more dovish Fed and lower short-term rates

With rising unemployment, slowing wage growth and political pressure to lower borrowing costs, the Fed is likely to enact three to four rate cuts this year, adding up to a 75–100 basis point reduction, Parkview predicts. “The long-term inflation consequences will be left for another day.”

3. A steeper yield curve

“A steeper curve is historically associated with healthier credit creation and improved bank profitability—both supportive of commercial real estate lending,” Parkview commented.

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4. A disconnect between the stock market and the economy

Although equity markets have surged, the underlying economy faces, among other challenges, a deteriorating labor market “with unemployment likely to reach 5 percent or higher,” Parkview noted. For real estate, this will translate into minimal-to-none rent growth, especially in workforce-oriented sectors such as multifamily and retail.

5. Long-term rates anchored around 4 percent

Parkview predicts: “In 2026, beyond its focus on the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, we believe the Federal Reserve will place greater emphasis on its often-overlooked responsibility to promote moderate long-term interest rates—what we view as its ‘third mandate.’”

What it all means for CRE

The bottom line of these predictions for commercial real estate is that these forces will make financing more accessible for the first time since 2021. At the same time, lenders will be pushed to underwrite more conservatively around in-place income and debt yields rather than headline valuations.

Further, for developers and lenders, these changes will reshape the cost of capital, underwriting standards and the pace of new construction. More specifically, these conditions generate reduced short-term rates and higher liquidity—both of which favoring selective new development and refinancing activity.

Paul Rahimian, Parkview founder & CEO, told Commercial Property Executive that developers across all asset sectors will likely benefit from improved capital availability and better availability of construction and bridge financing.

Still, the outlook states, “Even with easier monetary policy, lenders will remain cautious about asset quality, sponsor strength and market fundamentals. The winners in 2026 will be projects with strong demand drivers, realistic rent assumptions and clear paths to stabilization.”

And despite its other predictions, Parkview calls permanent financing a wild card. “If inflation reaccelerates due to renewed stimulus, permanent loan rates could remain sticky. That’s more of a 2027 problem than a 2026 one, but it will influence underwriting today.”