Finance (Research Center)
Declining Delinquencies
By Deegant Pandya, Tamara Hoffman and Andy White Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services forecasts a 50 to 100 basis point decline in the U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate this year, based on historical and distressed loan data, vintage characteristics, maturity schedules and regression testing against the national unemployment rate. Given the 6.69 percent Standard & Poor’s delinquency rate in December 2014 (down 123 basis points year over year), we expect CMBS delinquency to be in the 5.6 to 6.1 percent range by the end of 2015. We derived a forward-looking delinquency rate from time series analysis calculations and the…
Q&A: Health of CRE Sectors Affecting Lending Activities
Certainly, not all commercial property sectors have recovered. Find out which ones have and have not.
Office-ially Stronger
(CMBS delinquencies by property type; $ in billions)
The Incredible Shrinking Number
(CMBS delinquencies by property type; $ in billions)
September Improvement
By Jessica Cavallero and Deegant Pandya Delinquency rates in Standard & Poor’s-rated U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) declined in September 2014. The delinquency rate dropped 14 basis points month over month to 6.79 percent, offsetting two consecutive months of increases. A decrease in newly delinquent loans and the steady pace of property liquidations contributed to the previous month’s positive performance. Overall, Standard & Poor’s CMBS delinquency levels have declined across the major CMBS property types as a result of improving commercial real estate market fundamentals and ongoing liquidity in the refinance market. We expect an uptick in loan defaults and…
