Jamie Lane

PKF Economists Ask: Should Hoteliers Worry About the Negative Fourth Quarter Change in GDP?

By Mark Woodworth and Jamie Lane The Commerce Department recently released a negative estimate of real GDP change for the fourth quarter. Given the correlation between changes in GDP and the demand for hotel rooms, is this an ominous sign for the U.S. lodging industry? We do not think so, and here’s why: First and foremost, the Commerce Department statistic represents the quarter-to-quarter change in GDP. Because of the seasonal nature of lodging demand, the GDP measure that is typically more comparable to hotels is the year-over-year change in GDP, which was up 1.5 percent. According to Smith Travel Research…

PKF Economists Ask: Should Hoteliers Worry About the Negative Fourth Quarter Change in GDP?

By Mark Woodworth and Jamie Lane The Commerce Department recently released a negative estimate of real GDP change for the fourth quarter. Given the correlation between changes in GDP and the demand for hotel rooms, is this an ominous sign for the U.S. lodging industry? We do not think so, and here’s why: First and foremost, the Commerce Department statistic represents the quarter-to-quarter change in GDP. Because of the seasonal nature of lodging demand, the GDP measure that is typically more comparable to hotels is the year-over-year change in GDP, which was up 1.5 percent. According to Smith Travel Research…