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Slow, Steady Softening Suggests Recession Nothing New

With a full-blown panic gripping global debt and equity markets, one might expect a dramatic softening in office leasing market fundamentals, featuring sharply higher vacancy rates and plunging rents. One would be wrong. The fundamentals have been softening all year, but the pace of softening has been moderate. The national office vacancy rate ended the third quarter at 14.3 percent, an increase of 130 basis points since vacancy bottomed at 13 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. By comparison, vacancy rose by 300 basis points in the opening three quarters of the prior softening cycle, in 2001 and 2002….

Corporate Rate Negotiations Tilt Toward Buyers

Room rates negotiated between hotels and corporations are likely to be much more favorable toward corporations in 2009 than they have been in any year since 2003, according to a recently released report on the corporate negotiation climate for next year.More specifically, corporate rate increases will be much lower in 2009 than this year’s increase of approximately 5 percent, according to the report’s author, Bjorn Hanson, clinical associate professor of hospitality and tourism management at New York University’s Preston Robert Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism and Sports Management.The corporate and contract travel segment represents about 20 percent of occupied room…

Opportunity Grows in Maturing Mexico

For U.S.-based industrial players seeking new horizons in lean times, nearby Mexico may present plenty of possibilities. That was the conclusion of a webcast panel produced by CB Richard Ellis Inc. executives last week. Moderated by Raymond Torto, the firm’s global chief economist, the panel also included Guillermo Sepulveda, executive managing director for Mexico; Antonio Trueba, senior vice president of capital markets and investment for Mexico; and Ray Wong, director of research for the Americas.Mexico’s emerging economy admittedly faces formidable challenges, among them credit-card debt that could pose significant problems in the near future and fallout from the global economic…

Student Housing Boasts Favorable Fundamentals, but Credit Crunch Slows Deal Flow

Occupancy rates for student housing properties have remained strong, but the credit crunch has stemmed the tide of deals.Cap rates on student housing properties have risen from 50 to 100 basis points recently, according to Patton Jones, managing director of the national student housing group for Apartment Realty Advisors. Where cap rates were typically in the 6 percent range, they are now approximately 6.5 percent for top-tier, well-located properties, and in the 7 percent range for an average property at a smaller school.While potential buyers are able to obtain debt by way of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financing, many…

Austin Submarkets Show Signs of Weakness

As the Texas state capital, the home of the University of Texas and headquarters for a significant roster of technology companies, notably Dell, Austin sports an office market that blends stability with volatility.A recent report from Commercial Texas, however, paints much more of a “tale of two cities.” Wrote Commercial Texas president Michael Kennedy: “From 2003 to 2006, all of Austin’s markets were on the rise, experiencing increasing absorption and comparable vacancy rates.” In 2007, however, the CBD rose to the top as the place to be for leading companies in Austin, while the other primary submarkets, the Southwest and…

Landlords Add Franchising to Menus as Restaurants Struggle

This year, a number of familiar restaurant brands are paying the price for consumer cutbacks in dining out. Bankruptcy filings by operators of familiar chains like Bennigan’s, Bakers Square and Mrs. Fields Cookies are closing hundreds of locations and returning space to the market. Meanwhile, other casual restaurant chains like Pizzeria Uno, Ruby Tuesday’s and Applebee’s are struggling.  Industry experts expect little relief anytime soon: Hudson Riehle, the National Restaurant Association’s chief economist, told Reuters this month that the restaurant business faces its toughest climate in nearly 30 years. One-third of operators expect their sales to drop year-over-year over the…

Foreign Tourism Keeps Hotels Afloat

As of September, hotel loan delinquencies accounted for a mere 0.23 percent of all outstanding hotel loans, according to Fitch Ratings’ latest U.S. CMBS loan delinquency index. But while foreign tourism has been a cornerstone of the U.S. lodging sector and international visitors may continue to visit travel hot spots, thanks largely to the wobbly dollar, lagging international markets may force more overseas consumers to cut back considerably on travel to the United States. The property type will also have to grapple with declining business and leisure travel. As for prospects for property subsectors in the coming year, on a…

Leasing, Absorption Get Hit in Third Quarter

The industrial market, like every other major property sector, is trying to cope with the housing slump and weak economy. Leasing activity within the sector has declined considerably, and the industrial market also realized negative absorption in the second quarter, its first drop in occupancy in five years, according to a report from Colliers International. The report, “U.S. Real Estate: Caught in the Middle of a Credit Crisis and Faltering Economy,” also notes that the vacancy rate is forecast to grow at a rate of 1 to 1.5 percent over the next year. Rental rates, which have already decreased, are…

Top 2007 Apartment Lenders Now Subject to Mergers

What a difference a year makes. Last year, 2,739 multi-family lenders provided more than $147.7 billion in financing for apartment buildings with at least five units and closed 48,577 individual loans, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association. The average loan size came in at $3 million, while the average lender provided 18 multi-family loans in 2007. Wachovia Corp., Washington Mutual Bank, Deutsche Bank Commercial Real Estate, Capmark Financial Group Inc. and Wells Fargo Bank N.A. were the top five multi-family lenders in 2007 based on total dollar volume. The report–based on data from the MBA 2007 Commercial…

Vacancies Rise in Many Southern Markets; New York City Nets Top Performance

While overall the U.S. office market’s vacancy rate experienced a 30-basis-point increase, hitting 14.3 percent for the third quarter, according to a third-quarter office market report from Grubb & Ellis Co., 47 markets saw their third-quarter vacancy rates rise while 12 realized declines, compared with 39 markets that increased and 20 that declined in the second quarter.Detroit notched the highest vacancy rate with 23 percent. Moreover, Phoenix, Austin, Las Vegas, Palm Beach County, Orange County and San Diego struggled, with each market experiencing a year-over-year jump in vacancy of at least 400 basis points, and California’s Inland Empire saw its…