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Projections that fourth-quarter-2008 holiday retail sales would usher in despair not seen since the Great Depression had everyone on pins and needles. Although November reports indicated that seasonally-adjusted retail sales, excluding automobiles, were down slightly more than 4 percent from year-ago sales, recent figures from the International Council of Shopping Centers show December comparable store sales to have declined by only 1 to 1.8 percent. From some of the pre-December sales-report jitters, I would not have been surprised to see retail spending fall 10 percent as 2008 came to a close!No doubt, it is a relief that the holidays are…

Now that 2008 is mercifully behind the retail sector, the question of what should be on the radar for 2009 is front and center. Conversations with industry veterans and research suggest that consumer spending, the economic policies of the new president and Congress, and fallout from the holiday shopping season will shape the retail sector for at least the early part of the year.By early February is detailed data about how retailers fared between Thanksgiving and Jan. 1, will emerge. By some predictions, holiday sales will determine whether some retailers did well enough to avoid bankruptcy or liquidation. On Dec….

Hotel management contracts have progressed considerably over the past decade, focusing on the fair and equitable distribution of returns between owners and operators. Having pursued an asset-light strategy, operators now seek to grow by increasing RevPAR, adding additional management contracts and building brand equity.Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels conducted a review of 139 hotel management contracts globally, all executed since 2005. The overlying trend in the United States is that the length of the initial terms has increased, indicative of the strength of operators’ negotiating power. Upscale and luxury hotels tend to have a longer initial term than midscale properties.The length…

Major hotel companies have historically maintained a limited presence in Greece, which also hosts little upscale product, but the country’s hotel and tourism sector is undergoing a transformation.According to a report by Pavlos Papadimitriou and Themis Trakas, consulting and valuation professionals in HVS International’s Athens office, the 2004 Olympic Games sharpened the world’s focus on Greece, and the positive momentum seems to be continuing. Tourist arrivals have increased from 10 million in 1997 to more than 17 million in 2007, a compounded annual growth rate of 5.7 percent.International hotel companies like InterContinental Hotels Group Plc, Hilton Hotels Corp. and Marriott…

Developers are slated to deliver a significant amount of office space in 2009, just as the economy paints a continuing painful employment picture. Those factors will combine to increase the nationwide office vacancy rate, according to Grubb & Ellis Co.’s Global Real Estate Forecast.Total payroll job losses will reach 1 million to 2 million for 2009, gross domestic product falling 1 percent, predicted Grubb & Ellis senior vice president & chief economist Robert Bach. Additionally, much of the 90 million-square-foot pipeline of office projects will hit the market this year. Thus Grubb & Ellis forecasts 45 million square feet of…

Global trade is a major driver of industrial real estate demand. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Los Angeles Basin, the United States’ gateway for trade with Asia. LAX ranks third in the nation in international air cargo and first in trade with Asia. The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach comprise 35 percent of the country’s container trade, and the region accounts for more than 12 percent of the nation’s trade by volume.These strong ties to global trade and Asia’s growth markets have driven unprecedented demand for industrial real estate in recent years. Between 1997 and…

The U.S. manufacturing sector is taking a continuing hit from the contracting economy, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey of purchasing managers. A multi-front pullback in activity suggests softening demand for distribution, manufacturing and other industrial space requirements.“Manufacturers are reducing inventories and shutting down capacity to offset the slower rate of activity,” said Norbert Ore, chair of the institute’s manufacturing survey committee, in a statement. According to the organization’s monthly Purchasing Managers Index, manufacturing activity continues to contract at an accelerating pace. The Institute for Supply Management disclosed that the index plummeted to 32.4 percent, its lowest…

Government agencies continue to be the primary source of financing for multi-family assets, and though both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been consistently widening their spreads, in part to offset the plummeting indices, they remain the most consistent and competitive source of capital in the commercial real estate market.They are now acting more like market makers than government agencies, developing new programs and adjusting their rates and lending criteria frequently in reaction to the volatile markets. Freddie is pricing deals 25 or 30 basis points inside Fannie but is arguably more discriminating and wary of overbuilt markets. Both agencies…

Falling single-family home prices continued to have a negative impact on the seniors housing market, particularly in the independent-living subsector, according to a recent Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services Inc. report that measured seniors housing metrics from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2008.Seniors are reluctant to sell their homes in a declining market. The independent-living sector seems to have suffered the most harm from this trend. Softer demand and a strong level of construction have resulted in a 200-basis-point drop in occupancy, according to the report. Revenue grew 4 percent to $2,471 per…

Assisted living and Alzheimer’s care facilities provider Emeritus Corp. capped the end of the year by ensuring there would be no material maturities hanging over its head in 2009. The company wrapped up the $36.3 million refinancing of seven properties through Freddie Mac, a move that allowed it to pay down and extend an existing debt with Capmark. Freddie Mac provided Emeritus with a 10-year loan at a fixed rate of 6.05 percent, and the company quickly put the proceeds to use. Emeritus applied $20.1 million toward the Capmark loan, leaving a $72.7 million balance that the company was then…