Industrial Report: USMCA delay clouds supply-chain planning
A missed USMCA deadline could complicate long-term planning for industrial occupiers, investors and developers.
The latest Yardi Matrix Industrial National Report highlights growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which is expected to miss its initial July 1 renewal deadline. While the agreement will remain in effect, the missed deadline moves USMCA into a rolling annual review process that could prolong uncertainty for months or even years.
For a sector built around long-term logistics commitments, site selection and manufacturing planning, that uncertainty is a meaningful headwind. USMCA governs roughly $2 trillion in annual trade between the U.S., Mexico and Canada and covers more than one-quarter of U.S. trade activity. Automotive and advanced manufacturing supply chains are particularly exposed, as components often cross borders multiple times before final assembly.
Rent growth slows as older assets face pressure
Industrial rents continued to rise in May, though the pace of growth has cooled. National in-place rents averaged $9.12 per square foot, up four cents from April and 5.2 percent year over year. The Inland Empire led annual rent growth at 8.1 percent, followed by Tampa at 7.0 percent, Miami at 6.9 percent and Atlanta at 6.8 percent. Two years ago, seven of the top 25 markets exceeded the Inland Empire’s current growth rate, underscoring how broadly rent momentum has moderated.
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Vacancy stood at 8.8 percent nationally, up 30 basis points over the past year, as new supply levels cooled and demand normalized. Boston illustrates why vacancy can remain elevated despite healthy rent growth. In-place rents there rose 6.3 percent over the past 12 months, but the market also has one of the highest vacancy rates among top metros. Yardi Matrix points to the age of Boston’s stock—roughly one-third of its industrial inventory was built before 1970—as a factor limiting demand for some older assets as tenants increasingly require modernized space.
Kansas City pipeline cools as e-commerce grows
Development remains active nationally, with 383.2 million square feet under construction, equal to 1.8 percent of stock. But some markets are moving well past the peak of the development wave. Kansas City’ industrial deliveries reached 54.9 million square feet from 2020 through 2025, equal to 17.6 percent of stock, but now has only 3.5 million square feet under construction and a similar amount in planning. The metro remains attractive for logistics because of its central location and highway and rail access, though its recent development cycle also included major manufacturing activity, including Panasonic’s 4.7 million-square-foot EV battery plant in DeSoto.
The demand picture is also getting support from online sales. E-commerce sales totaled $326.7 billion in the first quarter, up 2.7 percent for the quarter and 9.8 percent year over year. E-commerce now accounts for 19.8 percent of core retail sales, close to its pandemic-era peak. While tariffs, higher energy costs and supply-chain uncertainty continue to create near-term volatility, steady e-commerce growth remains a positive long-term driver for industrial real estate.
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