{"id":5,"date":"2009-10-27T10:58:10","date_gmt":"2009-10-27T18:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/64.70.41.235\/?p=5"},"modified":"2022-12-03T19:00:35","modified_gmt":"2022-12-04T03:00:35","slug":"economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/","title":{"rendered":"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Commercial<\/a><\/p>\n

By: Dees Stribling, Contributing Editor<\/p>\n

The case for pessimism might now be spreading to Wall Street after its recent flirtation with the 10,000 highlands, since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 104.22 points, or 1.05 percent, on Monday, ending well below 9,900. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also off, 1.17 percent and 0.59 percent respectively.<\/p>\n

Commercial real estate certainly has that aura of doom as 2009 nears its end. Few predict anything better for the industry for 2010, as demand remains weak, debt weighs down otherwise good properties, and banks continue to learn the hard way that real estate goes down as well as up.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been pointed out by plenty of astute observers that one of the bad ideas that got the CRE industry into this mess — and the entire economy of the United States into its mess, for that matter \u2013 was the insistence back in the mid-2000s that, \u201cIt\u2019s different this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

As the bubble inflated, the mantra was, this isn\u2019t a bubble. This is a new economy. A new paradigm. It can\u2019t pop, it\u2019s different this time.<\/em> People were thinking that way back during the tulip bubble, just as much as they were during the residential bubble of the early to mid-2000s.<\/p>\n

Of course there are few new paradigms and no new economies. It wasn\u2019t different that time.<\/p>\n

Good thing, too, since that\u2019s the best reason for long-term optimism \u2013 or even medium-term optimism. Now that CRE and the economy have contracted so painfully, plenty of educated observers have bought into precisely the same erroneous notion: \u201cIt\u2019s different this time.\u201d<\/p>\n

That is, the industry and the economy are permanently crippled. They can\u2019t recover because it\u2019s different this time.<\/em><\/p>\n

It isn\u2019t. There will be a recovery. That\u2019s as certain as anything in economics can be. That doesn\u2019t mean a reinflation of the bubble of the mid-2000s \u2013 who would want that anyway? \u2013 it simply means the turning of the business cycle.<\/p>\n

The turning of the cycle will affect and improve markets large and not-as-large. Recently, CPE<\/em> spoke with Eric Voyles, vice president of national business development at the Rockford Area Economic Development Council. Representing, as he does, an economic development organization, he\u2019s something of a professional optimist. Yet he had valid points to make about the future of his part of the country, the metro Rockford area west of Chicago, and the industrial corridor along I-39 linked to that city.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe recession has affected our industrial market as much as anywhere else,\u201d he told CPE.<\/em> \u201cThings have been distinctly slow recently.\u201d<\/p>\n

Certainly the numbers bear him out. According to Colliers Bennett & Kahnweiler Inc., the I-39 corridor had negative absorption of about 703,000 square feet in 3Q09 alone, taking it to 7.49 percent vacancy. That isn\u2019t bad compared to other Chicago submarkets \u2013 overall metro Chicago industrial vacancy is 12.21 percent \u2013 but there isn\u2019t any demand for space out near I-39 at the moment, nor any industrial development at all.<\/p>\n

But Voyles isn\u2019t paid to dwell on the past. Rockford and the I-39 corridor, he posited, have an industrial future. For one thing, the Rockford area already has the physical and human infrastructure to be globally competitive in the likes of machine tools and auto parts, as it has for years. It\u2019s also a rising competitor in aerospace, with well over 100 aerospace companies already operating in the area, including five major tier-one aerospace suppliers.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen the time comes, we want to be ready to allow this industry and others to grow,\u201d Voyles said. \u201cLocal officials and businesses are keen to make this growth as easy as possible, and we\u2019re laying the groundwork now.\u201d<\/p>\n

If things really were \u201cdifferent this time\u201d in a negative way, why would anyone bother to prepare for the future? But just as bubbles pop and times become hard, economies recover and times get easier. Local and regional officials and businesspeople all over the country are already getting ready for that inevitability.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The case for pessimism might now be spreading to Wall Street after its recent flirtation with the 10,000 highlands, since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 104.22 points, or 1.05 percent, on Monday, ending well below 9,900. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also off, 1.17 percent and 0.59 percent respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1329,"featured_media":123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The case for pessimism might now be spreading to Wall Street after its recent flirtation with the 10,000 highlands, since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 104.22 points, or 1.05 percent, on Monday, ending well below 9,900. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also off, 1.17 percent and 0.59 percent respectively.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-10-27T18:58:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-04T03:00:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"506\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"337\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johncelmins\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/\",\"name\":\"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-10-27T18:58:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-04T03:00:35+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/cdc5b49762694b55fa82abbeaa056a13\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg\",\"width\":\"506\",\"height\":\"337\",\"caption\":\"Commercial Real Estate\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\",\"name\":\"Commercial Property Executive\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/cdc5b49762694b55fa82abbeaa056a13\",\"name\":\"johncelmins\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6cc2cb07caa9f5582453c935dc0ad915568ee6d5c7945c948b5c000939a0f466?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6cc2cb07caa9f5582453c935dc0ad915568ee6d5c7945c948b5c000939a0f466?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"johncelmins\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/johncelmins\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides","og_description":"The case for pessimism might now be spreading to Wall Street after its recent flirtation with the 10,000 highlands, since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 104.22 points, or 1.05 percent, on Monday, ending well below 9,900. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were also off, 1.17 percent and 0.59 percent respectively.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2009-10-27T18:58:10+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-12-04T03:00:35+00:00","og_image":[{"width":506,"height":337,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"johncelmins","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/","name":"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg","datePublished":"2009-10-27T18:58:10+00:00","dateModified":"2022-12-04T03:00:35+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/cdc5b49762694b55fa82abbeaa056a13"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg","width":"506","height":"337","caption":"Commercial Real Estate"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economy-watch-the-business-cycle-abides\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Economy Watch: The Business Cycle Abides"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/cdc5b49762694b55fa82abbeaa056a13","name":"johncelmins","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6cc2cb07caa9f5582453c935dc0ad915568ee6d5c7945c948b5c000939a0f466?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6cc2cb07caa9f5582453c935dc0ad915568ee6d5c7945c948b5c000939a0f466?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"johncelmins"},"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/johncelmins\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2009\/10\/commercial_real_estate2_5e4j.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1329"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004618517,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5\/revisions\/1004618517"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}