{"id":1004812096,"date":"2026-09-16T05:37:43","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T13:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004812096"},"modified":"2026-09-16T07:02:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:02:43","slug":"what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"What Experts Are Watching For at Today’s Fed Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at a July 29 news conference following the FOMC’s decision to hold rates steady.
Screenshot by Matthew Kaufman<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest federal funds rate decision on Wednesday afternoon, with markets expecting the first rate hike in three years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME FedWatch<\/a>, for instance, puts the probability of a hike at 92.5 percent, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, with a scant 7.5 percent probability of rates remaining the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The FOMC’s meeting comes as inflation continues to persist. August consumer prices rose 0.4 percent from July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to the 0.1 percent increase of the prior month, largely because of gasoline prices. Year-over-year, headline inflation held at 3.4 percent. Even so, there is an encouraging detail in the report: Core inflation, which excludes the notoriously volatile food and energy prices, cooled to 2.4 percent annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO: <\/strong>Why CRE Fundamentals Outlast Geopolitics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A hike would put the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4 percent, reverting to its January 2025 level, when the rate was on its way down. The last time the Fed raised rates was in July 2023, as the central bank made moves to put a lid on post-pandemic inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Federal Reserve\u2019s quarter-point increase was all but guaranteed after Friday\u2019s Core CPI reading came in above projections,\u201d Core Industrial Realty Managing Broker Noel Liston told Commercial Property Executive<\/em>. \u201cThe Fed made clear at their recent Jackson Hole conference that current borrowing costs were not restricting the economy\u2019s growth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short-term, long-term impacts on CRE<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Noel Liston, managing broker at Core Industrial Realty, said strong supply-and-demand fundamentals make industrial real estate relatively resilient as capital costs rise. Image courtesy of Core Industrial Realty<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

While commercial real estate investors have come to terms with the higher-for-longer<\/a> interest rate reality, rate volatility can have broader impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cInvestors have been risk-adjusting for volatility in the cost of capital for some time, but whenever a rate increase actually materializes, questions arise regarding broader economic impacts, the feasibility of investment mandates and the pace of doing business,\u201d Harry Klaff, principal at Avison Young, told CPE<\/em>. \u201cCap rate movement is unlikely to be unilateral, but certainly a trend toward higher capital costs will impact transactional volume.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite ongoing global volatility, Klaff said he is encouraged by the continued strength of capital markets activity, especially in alternative asset classes, such as data centers, manufacturing and critical infrastructure activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIndustrial real estate tends to be more resilient than other asset classes as capital costs increase due to present solid underlying supply\/demand metrics,\u201d Liston said. \u201cThe immediate focus does shift from possible relief to planning for further rate increases in 2026.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the more significant impacts of a hike would be on properties with near-term debt maturities or loans already operating under extensions or modifications, according to Baker Tilly Principal Brent Maier.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Headshot
Brent Maier, principal at Baker Tilly, said a rate hike could intensify pressure on properties with near-term debt maturities or modified loans. Image courtesy of Baker Tilly<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cA rate hike could accelerate the shift we’ve seen from ‘extend and pretend’ toward lenders requiring owners to contribute additional equity, sell the property, restructure the debt or otherwise resolve the situation,\u201d Maier said. \u201cProperties whose values have fallen below their outstanding loan balances will remain especially difficult to refinance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, long-term rates often have a broader impact on real estate, said Easterly Government Properties CEO Darrell Crate. If long-term yields move toward 6 percent, that could be a negative for real estate valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe market has predicted this Fed pivot with much certainty,\u201d said Parkview Financial CEO Paul Rahimian. “Considering the 10-year Treasuries, which really control real estate valuations and capital markets, hit a recent high of 5 percent, we believe the Fed hike could give the market more confidence that the Fed is taking inflation seriously and that could ultimately result in <\/em>lower interest rates, in terms of Treasuries.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watching the chairman<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh<\/a> is still new at the helm and closely watched. Crate said he is going to pay attention to Warsh\u2019s commentary on what his outlook will be for future rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf they do hike rates, they usually come in a cycle, not just a one-off,\u201d Crate said. \u201cI’ll be interested in how many hikes they will be looking to do and at what pace.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Headshot
Harry Klaff, principal at Avison Young, said higher capital costs will likely weigh on transaction volume. Image courtesy of Avison Young<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Warsh’s commitment to avoid speculation<\/a> could go multiple ways, noted Ryan Severino, chief economist & head of research at BGO. Detailed forward guidance often creates false clairvoyance\u2014the Fed can and does alter its forecasts, including the path for the fed funds rate\u2014and encourages investors to treat every phrase as a commitment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaner communication can return more attention to the data and reduce the market’s tendency to overinterpret small changes in language, Warsh has argued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But markets have grown accustomed to extensive guidance, Severino said. Less commentary may reduce transparency and transfer more responsibility for price discovery back to investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWithout forward guidance from the Federal Reserve, investors have to rely more on hard data, which tends to amplify their responses to single economic data points as they come in,\u201d Liston said. \u201cThis lessens big picture thinking and can worsen economic volatility in the short run.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The industry has already seen repricing, slowing construction and stabilizing property income, Severino noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA measured increase would likely slow the CRE capital markets\u2019 recovery at the margin,” he noted. “The broader CRE market recovery will likely continue because of reset values, limited new supply and improving income, (which) can still produce an attractive investment vintage.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The odds vastly favor a rate hike. What then?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1023,"featured_media":1004806817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,21825,21783,23891,21742],"tags":[33022,46898,52263,52000,32907,32764,45671],"class_list":["post-1004812096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-finance","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","tag-avison-young","tag-baker-tilly","tag-bgo","tag-core-industrial-realty","tag-easterly-government-properties-inc","tag-federal-open-market-committee","tag-parkview-financial"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat Experts Are Watching For at Today's Fed Meeting - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The FOMC will announce its latest federal funds rate decision today, with markets expecting the first rate hike in three years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What Experts Are Watching For at Today's Fed Meeting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The FOMC will announce its latest federal funds rate decision today, with markets expecting the first rate hike in three years.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T13:37:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T15:02:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/07\/Kevin-Warsh-Press-Conference-July-29.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dees Stribling\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dees Stribling\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/dc1e9fa4ee0430d86f8e60cd697c953c\"},\"headline\":\"What Experts Are Watching For at Today’s Fed Meeting\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-16T13:37:43+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-16T15:02:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":967,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/46\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/Kevin-Warsh-Press-Conference-July-29.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Avison Young\",\"Baker Tilly\",\"BGO\",\"Core Industrial Realty\",\"Easterly Government Properties Inc.\",\"Federal Open Market Committee\",\"Parkview Financial\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Featured\",\"Finance\",\"Investment\",\"National\",\"News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/what-experts-are-watching-for-at-todays-fed-meeting\\\/\",\"name\":\"What Experts Are Watching For at Today's Fed Meeting - 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