{"id":1004801171,"date":"2026-06-07T20:01:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T04:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004801171"},"modified":"2026-06-07T20:06:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T04:06:20","slug":"naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/","title":{"rendered":"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Matt
Matt Mowell, senior managing economist at CBRE, presents during NAREE’s 2026 conference. Photo by Suzann D. Silverman<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

This year is both good and bad for commercial real estate, according to Matt Mowell, senior managing economist at CBRE. During his presentation at the National Association of Real Estate Editors\u2019 60th<\/sup> Annual Real Estate Journalism Conference, which took place in Miami last week, he predicted 2026 will be a \u201cgood vintage year\u201d for commercial real estate returns, the beginning of a new cycle with less yield compression than in previous cycles and devaluations already a thing of the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, CLO and CMBS issuance has flattened, which he termed \u201ca cause for concern.\u201d And bidder pools have become shallower. \u201cI think we\u2019re going to have to pull back some of the very strong expectations that we had at the beginning of the year,\u201d he advised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lender caution is largely due to the threat of rising inflation. Mowell anticipates the consumer price index to end the year up 3.7 percent over fourth quarter 2025, with GDP growth at 2.2 percent and job growth at 0.2 percent. After that, though, he expects inflation to start to normalize. And he says real estate will remain attractive relative to other asset classes.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

MORE FROM NAREE:<\/b>\u00a0Retail Recovery Attracts Institutions<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

However, this cycle will be driven individually by sector, he noted. Office will likely be the lead sector in average annual total returns over the next five years, as it continues to adjust to its new reality. \u201cThere\u2019s more office space being torn down or converted than being built,\u201d he said, which is helping it correct, and there\u2019s some room for it to fall a bit more before becoming a growth story. He pointed to recovery in cities like San Francisco and Manhattan, where better office space is performing well and he expects higher rent growth over the next five years, although he also noted the large amount of bad debt still to be worked out across the sector, with banks tiring of kicking the proverbial can down the road.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, retail continues to strengthen, with its average annual total return likely to be around 7.5 percent from 2026-2030, while multifamily\u2019s will be slightly lower as it works through the recent oversupply in the Sun Belt, and the industrial sector has become \u201cvery bifurcated,\u201d weakened by regulatory issues while new space attracts activity.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CBRE\u2019s Mowell predicts pros and cons for real estate this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":755,"featured_media":1004801174,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825,21783,23891,21742,21747],"tags":[32789,40671],"class_list":["post-1004801171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-office","tag-cbre","tag-national-association-of-real-estate-editors"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CBRE\u2019s Mowell predicts pros and cons for real estate this year.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-08T04:01:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-08T04:06:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Suzann D. Silverman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/\",\"name\":\"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-08T04:01:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-06-08T04:06:20+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/c76ee9cae0414c33cc46212296dda6b9\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":620,\"caption\":\"Matt Mowell, senior managing economist at CBRE, presents during NAREE's 2026 conference. Photo by Suzann D. Silverman\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\",\"name\":\"Commercial Property Executive\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/c76ee9cae0414c33cc46212296dda6b9\",\"name\":\"Suzann D. Silverman\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/03\/SSilverman_101713_04_cropped-for-headshot.jpg?w=96\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/03\/SSilverman_101713_04_cropped-for-headshot.jpg?w=96\",\"caption\":\"Suzann D. Silverman\"},\"description\":\"Suzann D. Silverman is editorial director of CPE. She has covered the commercial and multifamily real estate industry since 1995, becoming editor-in-chief of Commercial Property Executive (formerly Commercial Property News) in 1998 and editorial director of both CPE and Multi-Housing News in 2016. She is also a longtime board member of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, currently serving as vice president. You can reach her at suzann.silverman@cpe-mhn.com.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/suzann-d-silverman\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE","og_description":"CBRE\u2019s Mowell predicts pros and cons for real estate this year.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2026-06-08T04:01:31+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-06-08T04:06:20+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":620,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Suzann D. Silverman","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/","name":"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-08T04:01:31+00:00","dateModified":"2026-06-08T04:06:20+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/c76ee9cae0414c33cc46212296dda6b9"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg","width":800,"height":620,"caption":"Matt Mowell, senior managing economist at CBRE, presents during NAREE's 2026 conference. Photo by Suzann D. Silverman"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/naree-special-report-new-cycle-for-cre\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"NAREE Special Report: New Cycle for CRE"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/c76ee9cae0414c33cc46212296dda6b9","name":"Suzann D. Silverman","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/03\/SSilverman_101713_04_cropped-for-headshot.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/03\/SSilverman_101713_04_cropped-for-headshot.jpg?w=96","caption":"Suzann D. Silverman"},"description":"Suzann D. Silverman is editorial director of CPE. She has covered the commercial and multifamily real estate industry since 1995, becoming editor-in-chief of Commercial Property Executive (formerly Commercial Property News) in 1998 and editorial director of both CPE and Multi-Housing News in 2016. She is also a longtime board member of the National Association of Real Estate Editors, currently serving as vice president. You can reach her at suzann.silverman@cpe-mhn.com.","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/suzann-d-silverman\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/06\/Matt-Mowell_CBRE_NAREE26-1-e1780891122789.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004801171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/755"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004801171"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004801171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004801177,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004801171\/revisions\/1004801177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004801174"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004801171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004801171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004801171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}