{"id":1004793502,"date":"2026-04-01T05:32:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T13:32:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004793502"},"modified":"2026-04-08T06:14:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T14:14:10","slug":"energy-independent-not-inflation-proof","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Independent, Not Inflation Proof"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a1098c10f864&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004793515\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/silhouette-of-sailing-old-ship-in-stormy-sea-with-lightning-bolts-and-amazing-waves-and-dramatic-sky-collage-in-the-style-of-marine-painter-like-aivazovsky-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,675\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;11&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Getty Images\/iStockphoto&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;NIKON D5000&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Silhouette of sailing old ship in stormy sea with lightning bolts and amazing waves and dramatic sky. Collage in the style of marine painter like Aivazovsky.&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1397692800&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;35&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.003125&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Silhouette of sailing old ship in stormy sea with lightning bolts and amazing waves and dramatic sky. Collage in the style of marine painter like Aivazovsky.&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"iStock-1263100744\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;iStock image purchased for a one time use. Do not reuse without requesting permission from the art department&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Image by Elen11\/iStockphoto.com&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg?w=1024\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"576\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Silhouette of sailing old ship in stormy sea with lightning bolts and amazing waves and dramatic sky. Collage in the style of marine painter like Aivazovsky.\" class=\"wp-image-1004793515\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg?resize=300,169 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg?resize=768,432 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744.jpg?resize=1024,576 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Image by Elen11\/iStockphoto.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Pandemic lockdowns. The Russian invasion of Ukraine. The U.S.\/Israel-Iran conflict. March is not a friendly month for those of us trying to form a view on the macro-economy. I cannot pretend to have any particular edge in predicting how the current Middle East conflict will end. However, my warning that inflation was the key problem to watch out for in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/3-economic-trends-to-watch-in-2026\/\">my last column<\/a> is even more valid today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-fl-body-text-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/view\/yardi-systems-inc-\/commercial-property-executive\/april-2026\" style=\"background-color:#1bb1ae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>READ THE MAGAZINE<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a1098c110bc7&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"alignright size-large is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004707704\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-a-tale-of-volatility-and-optimism-on-the-global-stage\/sabina_reeves\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,929\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;9&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon EOS 5D Mark IV&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1662542666&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;100&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.005&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Sabina_Reeves\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Sabina Reeves&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sabina Reeves&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?w=1024\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"793\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"headshot of Sabina Reeves\" class=\"wp-image-1004707704\" style=\"width:400px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=300,232 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=768,595 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=1024,793 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sabina Reeves<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>In that column, I argued that inflation would be higher for longer because of geopolitical volatility and deglobalization, and that was before the conflict in Iran broke out. Even if the war were to end tomorrow, or has already ended by the time you read this, the market disruptions will take months to resolve. At the time of writing, QatarEnergy had already reported that 17 percent of its production capacity was destroyed and would take three to five years to repair. To be sure, oil production can be switched on faster than Liquified Natural Gas but one should expect higher than ex-ante insurance premia. The disruption extends beyond energy to the industrial products such as naphtha and helium, which is critical for semiconductor production, not to mention fertilizers and food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I often hear U.S. commentators argue that because the U.S. is energy independent, it\u2019s sheltered from these impacts. That is sadly untrue. Energy independence helps, but at the margin, when energy importers are scrabbling for secure alternative supply, the U.S. is a price-taker from the global market. Moreover, because U.S. consumers pay a lower tax on their gasoline, the price at the pump is actually more sensitive to changes in the wholesale energy price than those in Europe. Finally, we have historically seen a far higher proclivity of European and Asian governments to subsidize fuel costs, whether through price caps or the more proactive release of strategic reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of this matters because 70 percent of U.S. economic growth is powered by the consumer and a rise in energy prices is highly regressive. For lower-income consumers, energy (whether for their homes or vehicles) accounts for 20 percent of all spending. And a large part of the cost of food is actually the cost of transportation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-e6cfd2b2de4468e3dcc4f94aaa4d2aad is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#3d5360\">\n<p><strong>I often hear U.S. commentators argue that because the U.S. is energy independent, it is sheltered from these impacts. That is sadly untrue.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>What does this mean for real estate investors? Despite reassurances from the Federal Reserve in its March meeting, many market observers still believe that the next rate cut will not come until early 2027. Long bond yields are rising in all major global markets as they factor in higher inflation, delayed policy rate cuts and higher government spending on both defense and energy. So far, growth forecasts have not been meaningfully downgraded but that is highly dependent on the magnitude and duration of the disruption. History shows that sustained higher energy costs reduce demand and raise the specter of stagflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This makes for an uncomfortable scenario for real estate investors already facing a bifurcated leasing market and a tougher job of maintaining and enhancing NOI growth, not to mention an increase in the cost of debt. We expect to see geopolitical volatility reduce leasing and capital market velocity, but that doesn\u2019t mean we should be sitting out the market. For investors at scale, market timing is a fool\u2019s game. We remain disciplined but open for business. In particular, investments continue to look attractive in assets with long-duration income, with high in-place income relative to the sovereign government bond yield and decent inflation pass-through in the lease structure. Given that there are likely to be increased forced sellers, this could be a highly opportune time to buy current yield with the condition that speed and security of cashflow are king.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Sabina Reeves is chief economist &amp; head of insights and intelligence at CBRE Investment Management, associate fellow at the University of Oxford and council member of Marlborough College. Follow Reeves on Threads: @sabinareevesconomist or on LinkedIn.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-background\" style=\"background-color:#16a19a33\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/view\/yardi-systems-inc-\/commercial-property-executive\/april-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the April 2026 issue of CPE.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global energy volatility is still a risk for U.S. investors, writes economist Sabina Reeves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3510,"featured_media":1004793514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,37752,51037],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004793502","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-research-center-economy-ecommerce","category-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Energy Independent, Not Inflation Proof - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Energy Independent, Not Inflation Proof\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global energy volatility is still a risk for U.S. investors, writes economist Sabina Reeves.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-01T13:32:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-08T14:14:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744-feature.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sabina Reeves\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/\",\"name\":\"Energy Independent, Not Inflation Proof - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744-feature.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-04-01T13:32:59+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-08T14:14:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/0b3ab414bcd63e87c0a4a9e8c5ae2697\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/energy-independent-not-inflation-proof\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744-feature.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/03\/iStock-1263100744-feature.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Economist's View. 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