{"id":1004788113,"date":"2026-02-18T11:35:26","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T19:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004788113"},"modified":"2026-03-04T06:20:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:20:12","slug":"data-center-development-still-humming-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Data Center Development Still Humming\u2014For Now"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Data center demand has not leveled off, but as many as 25 projects were shelved last year for various reasons.
Image by Hathairat\/AdobeStock<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

The meteoric growth of AI continues to defy talk of a bubble that could potentially burst. Therefore, the production of data centers rages on with no end in sight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have not seen demand level off,\u201d said Todd Smith, chief technology officer of Transwestern\u2019s Technology Properties Group.\u00a0 \u201cThere are only a handful of hyperscalers, including Microsoft, AWS, Google, Meta and Oracle, along with a growing ecosystem of neoclouds that are often backed by and serve those firms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hyperscalers are continuing to invest in GPU clusters for AI training and inference, primarily NVIDIA, and are in a fever-pitched search for short- and midterm capacity to house them over the next few years, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, data center vacancy rates have either remained the same or tightened in many markets across the U.S., with the overall U.S. vacancy rate holding steady at 3.5 percent throughout 2025 despite a large amount of new colocation capacity being delivered to the market, noted John McWilliams, head of data center insights at Cushman & Wakefield. Prelease rates for colocation capacity under construction also rose from 77.0 percent in H1 2025 to 78.8 percent in H2 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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If the pace of development continues, certain U.S. regions are headed for an electricity shortfall, according to Bukola Folashakin, Assistant Vice President for Energy at Morningstar & Natural Resources Ratings.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Investment in hyperscalers is skyrocketing, with capex in 2026 expected to increase by about 40 percent to $620 billion, with a significant portion allocated to digital infrastructure expansion, according to Erick Vega, director & senior credit analyst at CreditSights, a Fitch Solutions financial research company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, a McKinsey estimated that $5.2 trillion will be invested worldwide in data centers dedicated to AI alone by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the data center sector is not risk free. For example, Smith noted that investment in GPUs is massive, but their useful lifespans are far shorter than facility investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf there is a significant slowdown in demand for the data and services that spawn from their use, the refresh cycles may come into question, which could create a downward spiral,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is there risk of a data center bubble?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The data center industry and demand for data have not seen a real bust since the dot-com meltdown of 1999 and 2000, Smith noted: \u201cThis gives some confidence that a true bust will not occur, but no one can be certain, as this boom is truly unprecedented.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whenever you\u2019re dealing with a transformative technology that requires massive capital and debt, there\u2019s always a risk of overshooting, and bubbles can form before the market stabilizes, said Jason Jennaro, CEO of FrontierGen, a company that delivers shovel-ready building sites with power solutions. \u201cThe key is understanding where the leverage sits and whether projects are backed by contracted demand or just speculation.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

McWilliams recommends \u201cmeasured optimism\u201d for the AI industry, noting that the landscape presents two simultaneous realities: \u201cOn the one hand, GenAI is a transformative force that\u2019s driving deep investment in infrastructure. On the other hand, there is considerable market enthusiasm without clear paths to profitability yet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key industry indicators include capacity utilization, customer concentration, contract structures and return on invested capital trends.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The electrical, mechanical and plumbing components in demand by data center developers are in short supply, noted Todd Smith, Chief Technology Officer of Transwestern\u2019s Technology Properties Group.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cCurrent indicators suggest solid underlying enterprise and hyperscaler demand, though we remain vigilant regarding valuations in the broader tech sector and its potential impact on data center investment appetite,\u201d Vega noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The amount of money going into AI dwarfs previous tech investment, which may signal some caution among lenders. An analysis by the Bank of England<\/a> that looked at how AI is creating deep financial dependencies in the tech sector suggested that meeting this demand will increasingly involve companies taking on extra debt, and banks making those loans could face losses on a scale that risks wider economic troubles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a bubble occurs, there would likely be a huge pullback in major tech companies\u2019 market caps, which would impact the broader markets. \u201cWe have already seen minor pullbacks when hyperscalers do not provide assurance and guidance in their earnings,\u201d Jennaro said. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, while leasing activity can be lumpy and volatile quarter to quarter, underlying fundamentals remain robust, Vega noted. \u201cWe continue monitoring utilization rates, potential project delays, and customer sentiment as key demand indicators,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power conundrum<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, there seems no end in sight for demand for data center capacity, but the industry does face strong headwinds to keeping development on a pace capable of meeting growing demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Twenty-five proposed data centers were canceled last year due to intense local opposition, grid constraints and rising costs, according to Heatmap.news. High energy usage, water consumption, noise pollution and zoning disputes were among the roadblocks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most common constraint is access to high-voltage electricity (500 kV lines) capacity. \u201cThe electric grids throughout the world, including in the most industrialized nations, cannot keep up,\u201d said Smith. \u201cNatural gas and battery solutions are being lined up for bridge power, while grid connections are pursued. The issue is acceptance of these alternatives with hyperscalers and their facility operators and neocloud partners working to position workable solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where high voltage is available, there often are lengthy interconnection queues and longer-than-desired site energization timelines, noted McWilliams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obstacles to development<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Access to and the cost of capital is also a concern. \u201cElevated interest rates and potential shifts in investor sentiment could challenge financing for the substantial development pipeline, particularly for newer or highly leveraged developers,\u201d said Vega.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, he noted that many states are requiring increasingly significant investment from the data center community to keep commercial and residential customers from seeing major increases in costs to support the unprecedented power demands. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternative energy solutions such as natural gas face emissions restrictions as well, pushing major projects into more remote areas that are not as well equipped with other utilities, such as water, sewer and fiber optics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Google and NV Energy, Nevada\u2019s public utilities company, pioneered a mechanism that shifts the burden of increasing electricity costs, driven by the need for new energy infrastructure, to data center operators and reduces carbon emissions. This Clean Transition Tariff<\/a>, which is now being adopted by other power companies, is a regulatory rate structure allowing large, typically >5 MW customers, to pay a premium for 24\/7 carbon-free energy for new projects, explained Bukola Folashakin, assistant vice president for Energy at Morningstar & Natural Resources Ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Grid realities are now what determines how quickly projects can move,\u201d according to Jason Jennaro, CEO of FrontierGen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

In addition, there are equipment supply issues, Smith continued, noting that electrical, mechanical and plumbing components are in short supply, particularly for acceptable equipment to meet the demands of modern data center use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And lastly, there is a labor supply issue, which also is raising costs. \u201cThe biggest challenge in the data center construction industry right now is finding available skilled labor in markets where data centers are being built<\/a>,\u201c said McWilliams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In markets like Northern Virginia, for example, Vega noted, the development pipeline concentration has intensified competition for specialized labor and could extend construction timelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Construction innovation also is critical, such as employing modular construction and standardized designs to accelerate timelines and mitigate labor constraints, he added, noting that competitive wages are attracting additional skilled workers to the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> Largest Data Center Developers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Potential for power shortages<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are no accurate forecasts to say how much data center capacity is required to support the AI revolution, but if demand continues to go at this pace, we’re heading into an electricity shortfall in some regions of the United States, according to Folashakin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEverything that we’re reading points to forecasts for shortages of the required power in some areas that will support AI data centers, particularly the hyperscalers,\u201d she continued. \u201dWe’re already seeing hyperscalers using more power than say, for example, the city of San Diego. The volume of electricity that is being consumed, we’ve never seen anything like it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report from the Rhodium Group<\/a> projects an annual average growth rate in demand for electricity of 1.5 to 2.3 percent in the 2020s and 2.0 to 2.2 percent in the early 2030s. AI data centers, electrification (e.g., electric vehicles), and clean energy manufacturing are all contributing to the anticipated increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Access to a high-voltage grid is the biggest challenge data center developers face, Folashakin said, noting that it can take up to five years from commissioning a new grid to getting it online, especially if it is an interstate grid due to the amount of regulatory bottlenecks encountered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While demand for data center capacity isn\u2019t leveling off, Jennaro said. \u201cwhat we\u2019re seeing are infrastructure limits. AI is effectively converting man-hours into megawatt-hours at industrial scale, and that\u2019s a structural shift in power demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Creative power solutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Essentially, power is driving the pace of growth. \u201cIn this market, speed to power equals speed to market, and grid realities are now what determine how quickly projects can move,\u201d Jennaro said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the larger, more aggressive developers are tackling the electrical problem by bringing their own power models onsite, hoping to eventually bypass the grid entirely, Folashakin noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some developers are investing heavily in battery storage, gas turbines or natural gas. Other creative solutions<\/a> include colocation of power production facilities that may include renewable energy resources, microgrid systems, and nuclear. \u201cThere\u2019s no one size fits all,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft, for instance, signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy to provide electricity to Microsoft data centers in the mid-Atlantic region from the Unit 1 reactor at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania, which was unaffected by the 1979 partial meltdown of the Unit 2 reactor.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Leasing activity can be lumpy and volatile quarter to quarter, but underlying fundamentals remain robust, said Erick Vega, Director & Senior Credit Analyst at CreditSights.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Other hyperscalers\u2014Oracle, Google, Amazon Web Services and Meta \u2014are looking to innovative nuclear technologies like Molten Salt reactors and small modular reactions to solve power shortages independent of the grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smith noted, therefore, that power shortages aren\u2019t slowing down development but are increasing costs. \u201cThe industry has been resilient and is pursuing creative solutions for larger sites and alternative energy sources to power them within acceptable time frames,\u201d he said. \u201cFaster deployment of modular designs and even temporary builds are in play.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bringing down costs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In terms of capital structure, Vega said that developers are stratifying their funding sources across private debt, structured credit, the bond market and strategic equity partnerships to reduce reliance on any single capital vector and optimize the cost of capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other efficiency strategies are aimed at data center site selection and campus designs. For example, developers are choosing locations with adequate electrical capacity, good water and sewer infrastructure and plentiful labor supply and measuring and managing community sentiment before site acquisition in some cases, said Jennaro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSites with more supportive communities are likely to be given preference in the site selection process,\u201d he explained. \u201cDevelopers also are likely to give preference to sites with the fewer regulatory hurdles, all else being equal.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The industry also is moving from one-off buildings to repeatable “campus products” that are infrastructure-entitled, pad-ready and scalable, so customers can deploy in phases without reinventing the wheel each time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AI is driving billions to support the hyperscalers, but obstacles pose risk for investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3366,"featured_media":1004788508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21755,21782,21783,51037],"tags":[52794,34908,52795,52793],"class_list":["post-1004788113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-centers","category-development","category-investment","category-trends","tag-creditsights","tag-cushman-wakefeld","tag-frontiergen","tag-transwestern-technology-partners"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nData Center Development Still Humming\u2014For Now - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Data Center Development Still Humming\u2014For Now\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AI is driving billions to support the hyperscalers, but obstacles pose risk for investors.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-18T19:35:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-04T14:20:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/02\/Data-Center-development.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"801\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patricia Kirk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/\",\"name\":\"Data Center Development Still Humming\u2014For Now - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/02\/Data-Center-development.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-18T19:35:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-04T14:20:12+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/05b48368428f74203116fc96872e12d2\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-development-still-humming-for-now\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/02\/Data-Center-development.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/02\/Data-Center-development.jpg\",\"width\":801,\"height\":620,\"caption\":\"Data center demand has not leveled off, but as many as 25 projects were shelved last year for various reasons. 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