{"id":1004787071,"date":"2026-02-10T05:05:11","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T13:05:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004787071"},"modified":"2026-02-11T04:56:38","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T12:56:38","slug":"mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape\/","title":{"rendered":"MBA\u2013CREF Special Report: Surveying the Lending Landscape"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mike Fratantoni, the MBA’s chief economist & senior vice president of research and business development delivers the organization’s economic and CRE finance outlook.
Photo by Gabriel Frank<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

If you\u2019re expecting any drama in the commercial real estate finance world beyond predicted loan maturity and origination volumes, you might be a little disappointed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This \u2018more of the same\u2019 mindset prevailed on the first day of the Mortgage Bankers Association\u2019s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Finance conference, hosted in San Diego.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consequently, commercial real estate lenders, originators and investors of all sizes showcased a series of more refined strategies, ones that favor distinct asset classes and capital structures in this new financing world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CRE lending\u2019s strong year<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Much of the certainty was set by the MBA\u2019s economic and commercial real estate finance outlook, led by Chief Economist & Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development Mike Fratantoni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fratantoni\u2019s team projected one interest rate cut this year by the Federal Reserve, at the lower end of most forecasts<\/a>. \u201cWe don\u2019t see them moving very much, with little movement in the 10-year Treasury (yields) as well,\u201d Fratantoni said while presenting the data. That latter figure sits at 4.18 percent, roughly level with that of September of last year. \u201cThe Fed’s probably done, or close to done,\u201d Fratantoni added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slowing demographics brought on by an aging population and tough immigration policy, a sluggish labor market, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence<\/a> and a gradual devaluation of the U.S. dollar dovetail into what Fratantoni referred to as an \u201cinconsistent, K-shaped” economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the mortgage market remains \u201cstrong,\u201d according to Fratantoni, with $634 billion in new commercial real estate loan originations taking place in 2025, according to the MBA\u2019s originations index. That number is expected to increase to $805 billion this year, a 27.2 percent delta. A further $875 billion, or 17 percent of $4.7 trillion in outstanding commercial mortgages, are set to mature in 2026 as well. \u201cThat\u2019s quite a lot that needs refinancing this year,\u201d Fratantoni reflected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> Investors Plan to Buy More CRE in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The biggest debt holders<\/a> include depositories, Government Sponsored Enterprises and commercial mortgage-backed securities,<\/a> totaling 37 percent, 21 percent and 16 percent of debt, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banks, private investors and GSEs all saw the biggest jumps in their origination volumes in the 2024 through 2025 period, with their lending increasing by 74 percent, 59 percent and 27 percent, respectively. \u201cIt\u2019s a massive growth in capital sources, especially during this recent period,\u201d said Judith Ricks, the organization\u2019s associate vice president of commercial real estate research. \u201cEven if we size the market and scope it out from a mortgage debt outstanding perspective, we see a long trend over time.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A potential alarm bell for the MBA are loan delinquency rates, which saw a bump to 3.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025. \u201cIt\u2019s still sitting at a relatively low level,\u201d Ricks noted. \u201cWe\u2019re keeping an eye on it but, are not necessarily all that worried about it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital adapts<\/h2>\n\n\n
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Left to right: JLL Capital Markets’ Wally Reid, Jason Hernandez of Nuveen, JPMorgan’s Julie Thick, Northmarq’s Nate Barnson and Tyler Griffin of Lument discuss the on-the ground reality of CRE dealmaking.
Photo by Gabriel Frank<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Today\u2019s most favored lending terms are starkly different from those of even half a decade ago, according to panelists speaking at a breakout session titled Shorter Terms, Smarter Deals.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ever-more steep yield curve and tightening credit spreads have led to lenders and investors favoring shorter-term loans, with the five-year duration becoming a favorite for both groups. \u201cIf you look at loan volumes since 2021, 75 percent of them have been five years or less, and if you look at the previous five years it was 55 percent,\u201d detailed Jason Hernandez, Nuveen\u2019s head of commercial mortgage investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Institutional investors have enjoyed these structures the most, with the flexibility brought on by shorter-term financing serving as a hedge against the inherent uncertainty<\/a> of the market. \u201cIt feels like home prices before the Global Financial Crisis,\u201d said Nate Barnson, managing director of production at Northmarq\u2019s Salt Lake City office. \u201cNobody wants to lock in a 10-year bet right now,\u201d agreed Julie Thick, market manager of the central region for the Real Estate Banking Group at JPMorgan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for which investment types and asset classes are piquing investors\u2019 interests, there\u2019s a return to form for office investments<\/a> and value-add funds, the first of which saw a 20.2 percent increase in sales activity, according to Yardi Matrix information. \u201cIt\u2019s okay to do an office loan now, which is great,\u201d said Wally Reid, senior managing director & debt platform leader at JLL Capital Markets. \u201cOur sales pipeline is up 77 percent compared to last year, and 80 percent over that,\u201d Reid added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For their part, equity investors have taken a liking to the value-add space. Despite its higher risk, the investment type yields some of the strongest returns relative to the capex going into acquired assets. \u201cIt\u2019s much less about borrowers\u2019 views on rates, because capital flows will always trump fundamentals,\u201d Hernandez noted. \u201cHope is not a strategy, but the capital flows drive it more than anything else.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Which lenders and capital structures are coming out on top in this investment cycle?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3012,"featured_media":1004787074,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,21825,21783,23891,21742,21747,51037],"tags":[44006,35547,47726,50380,37491],"class_list":["post-1004787071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-finance","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-office","category-trends","tag-jll-capital-markets","tag-jpmorgan","tag-mortgage-bankers-assocation","tag-northmarq","tag-nuveen"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMBA\u2013CREF Special Report: Surveying the Lending Landscape - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A \u2018more of the same\u2019 mindset prevailed at the Mortgage Bankers Association\u2019s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Finance conference in San Diego.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MBA\u2013CREF Special Report: Surveying the Lending Landscape\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A \u2018more of the same\u2019 mindset prevailed at the Mortgage Bankers Association\u2019s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Finance conference in San Diego.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-10T13:05:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-11T12:56:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2026\/02\/MBAMikeF.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Gabriel Frank\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/mba-cref-special-report-surveying-the-lending-landscape\/\",\"name\":\"MBA\u2013CREF Special Report: Surveying the Lending Landscape - 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