{"id":1004785356,"date":"2026-01-29T00:45:50","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T08:45:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004785356"},"modified":"2026-04-14T03:26:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T11:26:25","slug":"another-strong-year-for-cmbs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/another-strong-year-for-cmbs\/","title":{"rendered":"Another Strong Year for CMBS?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Commercial real estate has rediscovered its appetite for capital and, like in 2025, a sizable share of that borrowing is expected to flow through the CMBS market in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a prolonged slowdown, the market rebounded sharply last year, signaling renewed confidence<\/a> from both borrowers and investors. CMBS issuance surged to more than $150 billion in 2025, according to data from the CRE Finance Council, roughly 140 percent higher than 2024<\/a> levels. Industry execs see that rebound not as a one-off but as a foundation for further growth in the year ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis post-Global Financial Crisis high reflects both pent-up demand from borrowers and an insatiable appetite from credit investors seeking yield,\u201d observed Clinton Jenkins, director of debt capital markets research at JLL. \u201cAs we turn the calendar to 2026, the CMBS market will continue to be an excellent source of liquidity for borrowers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The renewed momentum carries broader implications for CRE. The combination of attractive credit spreads and strong investor demand arrives at a critical moment as the market prepares to navigate roughly $900 billion in scheduled loan maturities in 2026, according to Jenkins. CMBS is likely to play a central role in refinancing activity this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conditions for growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A range of economic and real estate dynamics are converging in 2026 to support increased CMBS activity and commercial property borrowing more broadly. The most obvious one is the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates<\/a> further this year\u2014perhaps twice. But that isn\u2019t the entire picture. One of the most immediate catalysts is the approaching maturity wall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe anticipate strong SASB issuance, driven by the maturity and refinancing of peak-year loans originated in 2021 and 2022, alongside the maturity of 10-year SASB loans from 2016 and 2017,\u201d said James Millon, co-head of capital markets for CBRE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, CBRE projects 20 percent growth in CRE investment sales volume this year, supported by several factors: constructive, neutral leverage at acquisition; roughly $300 billion in net asset value trapped in closed-end vehicles that have exceeded their fund lives and now require exits; and renewed interest from global direct and indirect allocators returning to U.S. real estate. Together, these forces are likely to drive acquisition financing and, in turn, strengthen CMBS issuance volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSignificant capital inflows toward multifamily and industrial portfolios, as well as trophy office, data centers and retail will further bolster issuance,\u201d Millon noted. \u201cWith base rates declining, borrowers will have the opportunity to refinance floating-rate loans put in place in 2023 and 2024, making CMBS an even more viable option.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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On the investor side, the market continues to offer compelling relative value compared to corporate bonds. While conduit issuance is expected to remain robust, competition from agencies, life companies, banks and debt funds is intensifying. That competitive landscape may influence loan structures.
\u201cWe could even see the return of 10-year loans as investors seek duration and show a willingness to concede on credit spreads,\u201d Millon pointed out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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