{"id":1004782473,"date":"2025-12-24T08:32:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T16:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004782473"},"modified":"2025-12-30T08:30:56","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T16:30:56","slug":"confidence-in-the-economy-cre-edges-higher-rclco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/confidence-in-the-economy-cre-edges-higher-rclco\/","title":{"rendered":"Confidence in the Economy, CRE Edges Higher: RCLCO"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The 2025 year-end sentiment survey from RCLCO points to confidence, steadying conditions and positive expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RCLCO wrote that although the overall economy and the real estate sector still face a challenging environment with substantial stress, expectations are indeed starting to improve. \u201cWhile risks remain evident, sentiment suggests a shift toward stabilization and growth in the year ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RCLCO\u2019s proprietary Real Estate Market Index (RMI) remained relatively stable over the second half of the year, rising four points to 41, which is \u201ctoward the top of a range historically linked to economic and real estate market stress.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In contrast, the Future RMI, which reflects sentiment regarding the next 12 months, rebounded by almost 15 points, to 63, showing considerable optimism for moderately or significantly improved market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking at the macroeconomic side first, the survey found that expectations of a recession within 12 months are down significantly, from 44 percent of respondents at mid-year, to just 29 percent now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004782481\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/confidence-in-the-economy-cre-edges-higher-rclco\/recession-risk\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png\" data-orig-size=\"1261,325\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Recession risk\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Scott received permission to use the charts &lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Roughly one-third of respondents see a recession as likely in the next year, while an equal share sees it as unlikely within the next two years. Chart courtesy of RCLCO&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png?w=1024\" height=\"264\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png?w=1024\" alt=\"Chart showing recession expectations, according to a RCLCO survey\" class=\"wp-image-1004782481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png 1261w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png?resize=300,77 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png?resize=768,198 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk.png?resize=1024,264 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Roughly one-third of respondents see a recession as likely in the next year, while an equal share sees it as unlikely within the next two years. <em>Chart courtesy of RCLCO<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As to <em>when<\/em> the next recession might appear, opinions are diverse. Roughly one-third of respondents see a recession as likely in the next year, while an equal share sees it as unlikely within the next two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expectations about interest rates and inflation are turning toward the positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A moderate decrease in interest rates is seen as the likely outcome over the next six to 12 months by 77 percent of respondents. This is in contrast to the mid-year 2025 sentiment survey, in which expectations were evenly balanced (at nearly 40 percent each) regarding whether interest rates would remain stable or decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity has-very-light-gray-to-cyan-bluish-gray-gradient-background has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>READ ALSO<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/moodys-cmbs-clo-forecast-signals-stability-for-cre-in-2026\/\">What\u2019s Ahead for CMBS, CLOs in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity has-very-light-gray-to-cyan-bluish-gray-gradient-background has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>As to inflation, RCLCO reported, \u201cEqual shares of respondents expect inflation to remain unchanged (39 percent) or increase moderately (39 percent), with a smaller but notable group (16.04 percent) anticipating a moderate decrease.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-closer-looks\">Closer looks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While most respondents are bearish on the for-sale and rental housing sectors, the industrial, self storage, senior housing and lifestyle and necessity retail are seen as experiencing at least some growth currently, with nearly every real estate product type expected back in growth mode over the next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe exceptions to this,\u201d RCLCO said, \u201care Class B\/C office and regional malls, which are expected to continue to experience stress.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A timely question for survey respondents was about whether data center demand and development constitute a bubble, amid evolving <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/data-center-industry-trends\/\">data center market trends<\/a>. Nearly two-thirds said that there is a bubble in this sector, and many cited power availability as a possible limiting factor in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/builders-of-the-boom-top-10-data-center-developers\/\">future data center development<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, RCLCO described the majority sentiment as \u201cmeasured concern rather than alarm.\u201d Overall, the responses indicate that while many participants recognize signs of potentially unsustainable demand and development, most do not view the risk as severe at this stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rclco.com\/publication\/confidence-on-the-horizon-steadying-conditions-with-positive-expectations-ahead\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">RCLCO\u2019s Real Estate Market Sentiment Survey<\/a> is based on the opinions of a pool of experienced real estate professionals from across the industry and the nation. A large majority (75 percent) of these respondents have worked in real estate for 20 years or more, with an average tenure of about 25 years. Further, 87 percent of respondents are C-suite or senior executives in their organizations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The company\u2019s end-of-year sentiment report foretells stability and renewed growth in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004782585,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21755,21825,21748,21783,23891,21742,21747,21749],"tags":[36905],"class_list":["post-1004782473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-data-centers","category-finance","category-industrial","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-office","category-retail","tag-rclco"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Confidence in the Economy, CRE Edges Higher: RCLCO - 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He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/12\/Recession-risk_featured.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004782473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/882"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004782473"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004782473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004782703,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004782473\/revisions\/1004782703"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004782585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004782473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004782473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004782473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}