{"id":1004775964,"date":"2025-10-29T19:26:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T03:26:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004775964"},"modified":"2025-10-30T07:21:27","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T15:21:27","slug":"a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"A Better Way to Analyze Job Market Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a14e5e814729&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004775971\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/%d0%bf%d0%b5%d1%87%d0%b0%d1%82%d1%8c-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,900\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;\\u041f\\u0435\\u0447\\u0430\\u0442\\u044c&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AdobeStock_506867734\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;AdobeStock image purchased for a one time use. Do not reuse without requesting permission from the art department&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Economist&#8217;s View. Image by Vadym\/Adobe Stock&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg?w=1024\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"768\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"AdobeStock_506867734AdobeStock_506867734\" class=\"wp-image-1004775971\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg?resize=768,576 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg?resize=1024,768 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Image by Vadym\/Adobe Stock<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We have regularly discussed a covariance analysis that examines how employment behaves in individual metropolitan areas based on national economic changes. We applied the same analysis to major employment sectors (as defined by the Current Employment Statistics coding system). The analyses are based on monthly employment data from January 1980 through June 2025 (534 time periods for each regression). Specifically, for each employment sector, we estimate a statistical equation, which summarizes how a 100-basis-point percentage change in total national employment affects sectoral employment growth rates. The equation consists of a constant \u201calpha\u201d for each market and a \u201cbeta,\u201d which is a multiplier applied to the national percent change in employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-fl-body-text-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=855993\" style=\"background-color:#1bb1ae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>READ THE MAGAZINE<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Before discussing the alpha and beta coefficients, it\u2019s important to understand the relative strength of the models. The R-squared statistic represents the portion of the dependent variable (sector growth) explained by the independent variable (total employment) in each regression model. In other words, R-squared indicates how well the model \u201cfits\u201d the data and is therefore able to explain historical performance and predict future performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both goods and service-producing sectors have high R-squared statistics, with the highest (most desirable) seen in the private service-producing sector (highlighted in \u201dgo\u201d green). The regression models for trade, transportation and utilities (including wholesale and retail trade) and professional and business services also have high explanatory values. However, mining and logging, utilities and government (highlighted in cautionary yellow) all have low R-squared values, indicating little explanatory power.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a14e5e815362&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"alignright size-large is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" data-attachment-id=\"1004529544\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-the-feds-misguided-path-on-interest-rates\/peter-linneman-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Peter-Linneman\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Peter-Linneman&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Economist\u2019s View: The Fed\u2019s Misguided Path on Interest Rates&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg?w=800\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg?w=800\" alt=\"Peter-Linneman\" class=\"wp-image-1004529544\" style=\"width:400px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Peter-Linneman.jpg?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Peter Linneman<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The alpha indicates sectoral growth that is independent of national growth. If there is no national job growth, then the alpha is the expected annual percentage change in sectoral MSA employment. Thus, higher alpha sectors have built-in employment growth dynamics. The high alpha sectors, with green highlighting include financial activities, professional and business services, private education and health services, and state government. In contrast, low alpha sectors are highlighted in yellow and are dominated by goods-producing sectors such as mining and logging and manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The beta for the U.S. is definitionally equal to 1.0. A sector with a beta of 1.0 registers (on average) an increase of 100 basis points in employment growth (plus its alpha) when national employment rises by 100 basis points. A beta that is less than 1.0 indicates that the sector does not boom (or bust) to as great an extent as the national economy, while a beta of greater than 1.0 indicates that such a sector experiences swings of greater magnitude (around its trend) than percentage changes at the national level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The high beta sectors (highlighted in orange) are again dominated by goods-producing segments, such as construction and durable goods manufacturing, but also include the leisure and hospitality sector. In contrast, the most stable, low-beta sectors include utilities and government (highlighted in gray). Note that unlike the other metrics, the desirability of beta values depends on the economic outlook, with higher betas sought when the economy is growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The breakeven statistic reflects the interaction between the alpha and the beta, indicating the level of U.S. employment growth required to sustain positive job growth within a specific sector. In general, lower breakeven points (highlighted in green), indicate greater resilience within a sector relative to changes at the national level. For example, the private education and health services sector has the lowest breakeven point of -5.8 percent. This means that as long as U.S. employment growth is greater than -5.8 percent, sector growth is expected to be positive. State and local government and the financial activities sectors also have low breakeven points. In contrast, utilities, mining and logging and manufacturing have high breakeven points (highlighted in yellow), indicating that total U.S. employment growth must be relatively high in order for those sectors to see contemporaneous positive growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the national employment outlook is strong, expect sectors with high alphas and high betas to do well. However, when the national outlook is weak, sectors with high alphas and low betas will best hedge against an economic downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-background\" style=\"background-color:#16a19a33\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=855993\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Read the November 2025 issue of CPE.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr. Peter Linneman on which sectors are poised for growth and which are likely to contract. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":893,"featured_media":1004775971,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,37752,51037],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004775964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-research-center-economy-ecommerce","category-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>A Better Way to Analyze Job Market Risk - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Better Way to Analyze Job Market Risk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dr. Peter Linneman on which sectors are poised for growth and which are likely to contract.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-30T03:26:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-30T15:21:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Peter Linneman\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/\",\"name\":\"A Better Way to Analyze Job Market Risk - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-30T03:26:18+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-30T15:21:27+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/e4a3cfb575779f209519867f7aae64f4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/a-better-way-to-analyze-job-market-risk\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/10\/AdobeStock_506867734.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Economist's View. 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