{"id":1004763029,"date":"2025-07-01T13:09:34","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T21:09:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004763029"},"modified":"2025-07-01T17:52:20","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T01:52:20","slug":"global-trade-rebalancing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Trade Rebalancing"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004707704\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-a-tale-of-volatility-and-optimism-on-the-global-stage\/sabina_reeves\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,929\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;9&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon EOS 5D Mark IV&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1662542666&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;50&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;100&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.005&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Sabina_Reeves\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Sabina Reeves&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Sabina Reeves&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?w=1024\" height=\"793\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"headshot of Sabina Reeves\" class=\"wp-image-1004707704\" style=\"width:400px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=300,232 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=768,595 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/03\/Sabina_Reeves.jpg?resize=1024,793 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sabina Reeves<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">On April 9, the announcement of new U.S. tariffs sent equity markets tumbling and had economists sharpening their pencils to downgrade forecasts. These downgrades varied in<br>size depending on each country\u2019s trade exposure to the U.S., but none were<br>immune. As the old saying goes, when the police raid a speakeasy, they arrest everyone, including the pianist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But at the time of this writing, the tariff picture is radically different. There is a new baseline tariff of 10 percent (as confirmed by the trade deal with the United Kingdom) but all other new tariffs on countries excluding China are on a 90-day \u201cpause.\u201d And even the Chinese tariffs are not as bad as we initially thought, given widespread exemptions for electronics and their components.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-fl-body-text-color has-text-color has-background wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=848837\" style=\"background-color:#1bb1ae\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>READ THE MAGAZINE<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>So where does that leave us? For those outside the U.S. and China, 10 percent is a multi-decade high but workable for most. Within the U.S., by contrast, the tariff amounts to a sizable tax on consumption, an activity-dampener and an inflationary pulse. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the impact of a 10 percent tariff is likely to cause a three-time output loss in the U.S. compared to the Eurozone, along with a two-time inflationary impulse. All other countries can alter their trade relationships to counteract the U.S. tariffs. Indeed, 70 percent of countries already do more trade with China than the U.S., and I expect to see intra-Asian and Euro-Asian trade links strengthened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-f15c509bcb0d97b72bb7ff9f051fad0c is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#3d5360\">\n<p><strong>We continue to expect business and consumer confidence to be hit by volatility, delaying decisions and dampening activity.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The pause has been greeted with elation in equity markets but less so in fixed-income markets. At the time of writing, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is still hovering in the mid-4 percent range. It appears that the global bond market is now demanding a higher-term premium on U.S. debt. This is significant because the U.S. remains the world\u2019s largest debtor, dependent on the kindness of its major global trading partners, not least China and Japan, to finance its budget deficits. And the Japanese finance minister has already said that his country\u2019s $1.1 trillion of Treasuries are \u201con the table\u201d in Japan\u2019s tariff negotiations. All of this has not been lost on Moody\u2019s, the last of the Big Three rating agencies to remove the U.S.\u2019s pristine triple-A sovereign debt rating. This is the first time in modern history where the U.S. does not hold a triple-A rating from any of these agencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a0f6acb49e60&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" class=\"wp-block-image size-large wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004763038\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/man-closing-off-america\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,900\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;5&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Getty Images&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon EOS 6D&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;A man attempts to wall off the United States.&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1721520000&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;Christine Balderas 2025&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;26&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;2000&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.04&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Man Closing Off America&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"iStock-2212132315 Image by DNY59\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Man Closing Off America&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Economist&#8217;s View. Image by DNY59\/iStockphoto.com&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg?w=1024\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on-async--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-async-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" height=\"768\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"A man attempts to wall off the United States.\" class=\"wp-image-1004763038\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg?resize=768,576 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg?resize=1024,768 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Enlarge\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on-async--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Image by DNY59\/iStockphoto.com<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-960a8f0b33f14af8dd649819091f28c6 is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\" style=\"color:#3d5360\">\n<p><strong>We\u2019ll likely see the demand-side weakness come through in leasing activity without the concomitant easing in rates that would help boost capital markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the CBRE Investment Management House View, the U.S. is in a period of stagflation, at best, even if the heightened risk of recession has abated somewhat. We continue to expect business and consumer confidence to be hit by volatility, delaying decisions and dampening activity. We also expect elevated inflation as tariffs push up the prices of groceries, toys and other imported items. And we expect The Federal Reserve to be caught between keeping rates high to put a lid on inflation and easing to stimulate domestic demand. This is a far from ideal backdrop for real estate investment. We\u2019ll likely see the demand-side weakness come through in leasing activity without the concomitant easing in rates that would help boost capital markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Sabina Reeves is chief economist &amp; head of insights and intelligence at CBRE Investment Management, associate fellow at the University of Oxford and council member of Marlborough College. Follow Reeves on Threads: @sabinareevesconomist or on Linkedin.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-background\" style=\"background-color:#16a19a33\"><em><a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=848837\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read the July 2025 issue of CPE.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How are the U.S. capital markets tackling tariffs? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3510,"featured_media":1004763038,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,37752,45356],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004763029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-research-center-economy-ecommerce","category-rc-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Global Trade Rebalancing - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Trade Rebalancing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How are the U.S. capital markets tackling tariffs?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-01T21:09:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-02T01:52:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sabina Reeves\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/\",\"name\":\"Global Trade Rebalancing - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-01T21:09:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-02T01:52:20+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/0b3ab414bcd63e87c0a4a9e8c5ae2697\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/global-trade-rebalancing\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/06\/iStock-2212132315-Image-by-DNY59.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Economist's View. 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