{"id":1004752596,"date":"2025-04-02T15:23:33","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T23:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004752596"},"modified":"2025-04-08T05:04:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T13:04:18","slug":"industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/","title":{"rendered":"Industrial\u2019s New Groove: Gradual Growth and Tariff Concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Stonemont<\/a>
Stonemont Financial Group recently completed Castings Commerce Park, a three-building campus totaling 862,000 square feet in Columbus, Ohio. Image by Mike Cairns\/Infinite Impact & Aerial Image Solutions, courtesy of Stonemont Financial Group<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The commercial real estate market has seen some unprecedented shifts, but industrial has kept one of its core prerogatives: The unabated evolution toward the Holy Grail of immediate delivery. As such, many of the twists and turns of industrial demand these days tend to be about gradual pivots rather than huge disruptors. The devil\u2019s often in the details, and industrial has always had its fair share of intricate details.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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READ THE MAGAZINE<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Of course, all of this is just the preface to the pressing questions: Where\u2019s industrial demand heading and what will shape it this year and beyond? Which strategies and types of facilities stand to gain momentum next? Are there any emerging industrial markets<\/a>? Where is demand treading water or dwindling, and where is it surging?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its 2025 sector outlook, Park Madison Partners noted that industrial is entering a normalization of fundamentals following its \u201cpost-pandemic sugar high.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> Top 10 Markets for Industrial Deliveries<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Vacancies are double their 3 percent 2022 levels. Leasing volumes have reverted to 2018 levels. With landlords wielding reduced pricing power, rent growth has dropped to the single digits. This suggests investors face a challenging near term. But they\u2019re likely to see appealing long-term entry points in the next two years, the authors predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"HSA<\/a>
HSA Commercial Real Estate leased one of two buildings at its Terminus at Hobbs Station industrial development in Plainfield, Ind., to a manufacturer of electric motors and generators. Image by Meridian Design Build, courtesy of HSA Commercial Real Estate<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What, where and other w\u2019s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Industrial demand continues to be most acutely felt in core markets such as Dallas-Fort Worth, Phoenix, Atlanta and Nashville, said Andrew Wiesemann, vice president of Matthews Real Estate Investment Services. All these cities are seeing strong demand based on robust user need and substantial population growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On top of that, areas near ports, such as Laredo, Texas; Houston; Miami; New Jersey; Seattle; Portland, Ore., and the Inland Empire are witnessing demand based on strategic locations for transportation and logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> Port Activity Rebounds<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cThese areas are gaining national attention from a variety of investors, including private clients, family offices and institutional investment firms,\u201d said Wiesemann.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traditional industrial hotbeds, the likes of the Inland Empire and New Jersey, did particularly well late in 2024, said Craig Meyer, president of JLL Industrial Americas Brokerage. They profited from companies across the country stockpiling foreign-made parts and materials prior to tariffs taking effect and needing immediate access to warehouses to store these items.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Located<\/a>
Located in Wilmer, Texas, outside Dallas, Sunridge Industrial Park is a 565,000-square-foot property that came online last year. The facility offers smaller lease sizes to accommodate a wide range of users. Image by Dustin Revella\/Dustin Revella Photography & Design, courtesy of Stonemont Financial Group<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Chicago area proved stronger last year, added Meyer. The metro fared well due to strong interest in midsized buildings, of which the Windy City area has many, he said. Other factors included an increase in manufacturing activity and the appeal of population center proximity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Southern California, leased investments are trading at a 10 to 20 percent discount to owner-user sites, according to Chris Nelson, Matthews\u2019 first vice president & senior director. With construction costs high, supply has been static or decreasing for small, multi-tenant and sub-25,000-square-foot industrial product, he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less can be more<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Investors are going big for smaller assets. For instance, in Brooklyn, N.Y., warehouses under $10 million are seeing the greatest activity, with twice the bid volume vis-\u00e0-vis larger deals, said Bobby Lawrence, associate vice president with Matthews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBid activity will increase even further if the warehouse has clear height above the market average of 13 to 15 feet, truck access and proximity to major thoroughfares,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The greatest demand on the leasing front is in the sub-5,000-square-foot sector, noted Nelson. On the purchase front, it\u2019s in the owner-user segment on sub-15,000-square-foot assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Crosslake<\/a>
Crosslake Park in Mooresville, N.C., a light industrial property housing 30 units across 55,000 square feet, is a good example of small-bay assets that are now in high demand. Image courtesy of Lucern Capital Partners<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEven with pricing growth over the past five years, the gross purchase price of these assets is still attainable for most businesses. With the higher leverage financing options available to users, these assets, when priced appropriately, still move fairly quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shallower-bay<\/a> infill sites are garnering greater interest than bulkier spaces, owing to their milder effect on balance sheets and the market\u2019s preference for them in times of rapidly evolving changes in goods and services demand, he observed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> Manufacturing Demand for Industrial Space Is Mushrooming<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Small-bay industrial properties provide investors a distinctive value proposition, said Frank Forte, CIO & managing partner at Lucern Capital Partners. They deliver a diversified tenant mix, cater to a broad array of businesses and are more resilient to market fluctuations. They\u2019re also able to offer inflation protection, owing to shorter lease structures and larger tenant demand that allow more frequent rental rate adjustment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe limited supply of small bay assets is another factor driving their investment appeal,\u201d Forte added, noting zoning restrictions, land scarcity and construction costs have all contributed. \u201cThe supply constraint has led to a highly competitive market, increasing the value of existing small bay properties.\u201d
This preference for smaller infill sites notwithstanding, Bryan Blasingame, CEO of Stonemont Financial Group, reported his company has inked a trio of 300,000-square-foot leases within the past few months. He also noted an upturn in interest in such spaces during the early weeks of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Up to 18 percent of what we did last year was manufacturing related, mainly by U.S. companies that want to bring their own production closer to their customers.<\/p>\n\u2014Craig Meyer, President, JLL Americas Industrial Brokerage<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Shifts in demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Industrial demand is changing in several ways. One major driver is the expectation of immediate goods and service deliveries, requiring supply-chain optimization to ensure deliveries within limited time frames, Blasingame said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cToday, (e-commerce) is close to 20 percent of all retail sales, and by end of the decade it will be above 30,\u201d added Meyer. There\u2019s interest in putting last-mile or last-touch facilities<\/a> closer to the population and putting them closer to other population centers around the country. \u2026 Up to 18 percent of what we did last year was manufacturing related<\/a>, mainly by U.S. companies that want to bring their own production closer to their customers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another shift sees both investors and users eyeing higher-quality assets, Wiesemann said. As users increasingly demand more automated, energy-efficient buildings, investors have adapted and are striving respond to tenant needs more quickly. They\u2019re also better funded than earlier owners, enabling them to finance necessary upgrades. Plus, municipalities are enforcing industrial site improvements, buttressing demand for well-equipped properties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO:<\/strong> How Is Class B Industrial Adapting to Modern Demand?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Park Madison Partners has observed the same flight to quality, noting in its outlook that, per CBRE, pre-2000 buildings recorded more than 100 million square feet of negative absorption in 2024. With tenants now enjoying greater relocation opportunities, and the pace of technological change quickening, Park Madison sees the trend continuing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Laurel<\/a>
Laurel Commerce Center in Laurel, Md., traded last year, when Lucern Capital Partners snapped it up. The owner says such light industrial assets are \u201cmore resilient to market fluctuations.\u201d Image courtesy of Lucern Capital Partners<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Obstacles and opportunities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Among the challenges confronting the industrial sector, higher interest rates and steep construction costs are two of the more daunting, said Steve Connolly, executive vice president & partner at NAI Hiffman. Considering 10-year Treasuries are hovering around 4.5 percent, the yield on costs capital investors require on new development projects must be more than 7 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis requires solving for higher rents while keeping land pricing and construction costs in line, (and) the latter\u2026 could be especially challenging with tariffs forthcoming,\u201d commented Connolly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Given the overall strength and size of Southern California\u2019s economy, we see a safe bet in sustained high occupancy and year-over-year rent growth.<\/p>\n\u2014Chris Nelson, First Vice President & Senior Director, Matthews Real Estate Investment Services<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Lawrence agreed interest rates are headwinds, but noted that higher rates also created opportunity<\/a> for some investors. Larger transactions are currently selling at a discount versus smaller assets, he said, adding, \u201cThat opens the door for buyers who aren\u2019t as reliant on debt to acquire properties at a more favorable basis.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs represent both headwinds and opportunities, according to Robert Smietana, president & CEO of HSA Commercial Real Estate. On one hand, tariffs will increase development costs with resultant increases in rents. But they could also boost industrial demand by spurring larger companies to reshore manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/a>
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data via Park Madison Partners<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey\u2019re starting to ask for some proposals on existing buildings and build-to-suit options to establish manufacturing operations domestically,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead three to five years, observers tend to be cautiously optimistic about the future of industrial. The greatest demand driver of industrial space is consumer demand, reiterated Blasingame.
\u201cEconomic and political uncertainty can have a big impact on the consumer, which has a downstream impact on demand for industrial space,\u201d he pointed out. \u201cSimilarly, economic and political uncertainty is leading companies to evaluate where they manufacture goods, resulting in more emphasis on reshoring. This is having a positive impact on industrial space demand as companies seek to adapt their supply chains to this changing environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Read the April 2025 issue of CPE.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ultra-low occupancy and double-digit rent gains have come and gone. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":450,"featured_media":1004752647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,21808,21748,51037],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004752596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-featured","category-industrial","category-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIndustrial\u2019s New Groove: Gradual Growth and Tariff Concerns - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Industrial\u2019s New Groove: Gradual Growth and Tariff Concerns\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ultra-low occupancy and double-digit rent gains have come and gone.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-02T23:23:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-08T13:04:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/03\/H_CastingsCommercePark_MikeCairns-feature.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"705\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"529\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jeffrey Steele\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/\",\"name\":\"Industrial\u2019s New Groove: Gradual Growth and Tariff Concerns - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/03\/H_CastingsCommercePark_MikeCairns-feature.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-02T23:23:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-08T13:04:18+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/d331e0059e00242bd623aa07925cd418\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/industrials-new-groove-gradual-growth-and-tariff-talks\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/03\/H_CastingsCommercePark_MikeCairns-feature.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2025\/03\/H_CastingsCommercePark_MikeCairns-feature.jpg\",\"width\":705,\"height\":529,\"caption\":\"Feature. 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