{"id":1004722691,"date":"2024-07-24T03:48:52","date_gmt":"2024-07-24T11:48:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004722691"},"modified":"2024-07-28T21:52:35","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T05:52:35","slug":"cre-sentiment-ticks-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/","title":{"rendered":"CRE Sentiment Ticks Down"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A key commercial real estate index ticked down 3 percent for the second quarter, reflecting growing caution in the economic outlook and the ongoing impacts of higher interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"620\" data-attachment-id=\"1004722786\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/crefc_index_adjusted-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\" data-orig-size=\"800,620\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CREFC_index_adjusted\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;The CRE Finance Council\u2019s index ticked down 3 percent for the second quarter. Chart courtesy of CREFC&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png?w=800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\" alt=\"The CRE Finance Council\u2019s index ticked down 3 percent for the second quarter of 2024\" class=\"wp-image-1004722786\" style=\"width:400px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png?resize=300,233 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png?resize=768,595 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The CRE Finance Council\u2019s index ticked down 3 percent for the second quarter. <em>Chart courtesy of CREFC<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The broad-based Board of Governors Sentiment Index survey fell to 102.4 from the previous quarter\u2019s 105.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Confidence in the U.S. economy has waned, according to the survey between June 26 and July 11 of more than 50 senior executives in the commercial real estate finance markets from every sector of real estate lending and mortgage-related debt investing markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Only 11 percent of respondents are expecting better performance over the next 12 months, down from 24 percent in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Robert Martinek, director at EisnerAmper, told <em>Commercial Property Executive<\/em>, \u201cThe economy has continued to chug along even as interest rates have remained <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/how-much-longer-is-higher-for-longer\/\">stubbornly high<\/a>. Inflation has moderated and the stock market has hit an all-time high.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Eric Brody, managing partner, ANAX Real Estate Partners, told <em>CPE<\/em> he is cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBased on the capital markets space, we believe that economic conditions will stabilize,\u201d Brody said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis stabilization is likely to be driven by steady job growth and potentially lower interest rates, creating a more favorable environment. As these factors typically lead to higher consumer confidence and increased demand, we expect to see an overall improvement in economic stability by the end of the year,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAdditionally, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/navigating-cre-challenges-in-a-higher-for-longer-market\/\">the uncertainty is creating opportunity<\/a> as borrowers are now realizing that economic conditions are not rapidly changing, and they must react by dealing with assets. We are seeing a plethora of opportunities in the NPL (non-performing loans), distress and short-term debt markets,\u201d Brody added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>READ ALSO<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/holistic-thinking-for-a-tough-finance-climate\/\">Holistic Thinking for a Tough Finance Climate<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-cyan-bluish-gray-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Victor Gutierrez, vice president of Platform Operations at Ten-X, told <em>CPE<\/em> he is confident in the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cRight now, we\u2019re seeing high employment, strong consumer spending and healthy stock market performance,\u201d Gutierrez said. \u201cAll point to strong performance going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pierre Debbas, Esq., Romer Debbas, told <em>CPE<\/em> that an election year is always one that creates trepidation in the market and this year is certainly no exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhile certain parts of the economy such as unemployment and wages remain strong, inflation and the current interest rate level have created a negative outlook on the economy for anyone in the real estate industry. This sentiment will not change until rates start to significantly decline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>John Blackmon, founder &amp; manager of NV Capital Corp., told <em>CPE<\/em> he has confidence in the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe have the greatest economy in the world, and there is still a tremendous amount of cash in the system,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd, based on recent polls, it looks like Republicans may come back in power in the White House, which is usually good for business.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-need-a-150-basis-point-decline-in-rates\">Markets need a \u2018150-basis-point\u2019 decline in rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s an optimistic shift in mortgage and cap rates with 41 percent of respondents viewing the impact of rates positively, compared to 31 percent in the prior quarter, according to the Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Debbas told <em>CPE<\/em> that a reduction in rates would certainly be positive for real estate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCommercial and residential transaction volume are at historic lows and the biggest reason for this is rates,\u201d Debbas said. \u201c25-basis-point declines will only show a light at the end of the tunnel, but the market will need to see a decline of 150+ basis points to get back to healthy transaction volume and development.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Brody, the impact of rates for the remainder of the year is more positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis optimism is grounded in the anticipation that interest rates may stabilize or even decline, which would lead to lower borrowing costs,\u201d Brody said. \u201cSuch conditions are expected to spur increased investment volumes and transactional activities, especially as there is a significant amount of unallocated capital ready to be deployed once there is more economic clarity.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Martinek said that with slowing inflation, all indications are that we will begin to see rate cuts sooner rather than later. Any cut in rates will benefit commercial real estate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gutierrez is expecting a positive impact for the remainder of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He told <em>CPE<\/em> the anticipated rate cuts in September and December will bring a positive shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA decrease in rates will lower borrowing costs and increase property values, which in turn should help to drive more demand and ease some stress in the market,\u201d Gutierrez said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Blackmon, the interest rates have not yet begun to have a significant impact on the economy with just some minor slowdown in new home purchases. He expects further lowering in 2025 to also help the economy to continue to expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-transaction-activity-expected-to-remain-strong\">Transaction activity expected to remain strong<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Transaction activity demand is expected to remain strong, with 54 percent expecting increased investor demand, consistent with the prior quarter (55 percent), according to the Index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe minute rates decline substantially or show a trend that that is where they are going, you will see a huge rebound in the real estate market,\u201d according to Debbas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He told <em>CPE<\/em> there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/opportunistic-investors-waiting-to-deploy-100b-of-dry-powder\/\">an abundance of cash waiting<\/a> on the sidelines and investors know that rates will inevitably come down and there is no sense of urgency in the market till that happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brody said that he expects demand to remain strong for the remainder of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe forecasted rent growth acceleration, alongside economic stabilization, supports this outlook,\u201d he said. \u201cAs the market absorbs excess supply and new units are leased, landlords will gain more pricing power, further driving demand,\u201d Brody continued.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAdditionally, the substantial volume of maturing loans will likely lead to increased transactional activities as property owners refinance or sell assets, contributing to a robust demand landscape.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Martinek told <em>CPE<\/em>, \u201cAfter a wait-and-see period, transaction volumes are beginning to increase. After a wide variance in buy\/sell attitudes, participants are starting to meet in the middle. I expect transaction activity to continue to increase.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The CRE Finance Council is an industry association representing the nearly $6 trillion commercial and multifamily real estate finance industry, spanning approximately 400 companies and 19,000 individuals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>And what to expect going forward, according to CREFC\u2019s most recent survey. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3568,"featured_media":1004722786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,21825,21783,23891,21742,51037],"tags":[51896,37703,34746],"class_list":["post-1004722691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-finance","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-trends","tag-crefc","tag-eisneramper-llp","tag-ten-x"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CRE Sentiment Ticks Down - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CRE Sentiment Ticks Down\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"And what to expect going forward, according to CREFC\u2019s most recent survey.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-24T11:48:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-07-29T05:52:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Richard Berger\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/\",\"name\":\"CRE Sentiment Ticks Down - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-07-24T11:48:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-07-29T05:52:35+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/6d4c5f1b2f682b3604ad9fe73c19fed7\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/cre-sentiment-ticks-down\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/07\/CREFC_index_adjusted.png\",\"width\":800,\"height\":620,\"caption\":\"The CRE Finance Council\u2019s index ticked down 3 percent for the second quarter. 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