{"id":1004721020,"date":"2025-06-02T03:55:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T11:55:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004721020"},"modified":"2025-06-30T23:34:39","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T07:34:39","slug":"bonus-content-office-debt-the-underwater-mountain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/bonus-content-office-debt-the-underwater-mountain\/","title":{"rendered":"Office Debt: The Underwater Mountain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

To get a glimpse of the office market\u2019s plight, you need only take a short stroll down Jackson Boulevard in downtown Chicago. Defaults totaling $404.5 million triggered foreclosures on four buildings within a few blocks during the past year, including a 1.4 million-square-foot tower owned by Brookfield Properties. <\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similar scenarios are playing out across other major U.S. office markets, and defaulting landlords often walk away, leaving the keys on the table. Lenders typically list the buildings for sale or try to auction them, but that\u2019s hitting some headwinds. In a research paper published last year <\/a>and revised in December, economists with the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that the collateral underlying 44 percent of all office loans appears valued below the loan balances. In a word, they\u2019re underwater. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, disruption from the pandemic and rising interest rates could deliver tens of millions of square feet of unwanted office space into the hands of lenders. According to Trepp, some $615 billion in office loans will mature over the next five years. Some of that amount could be pushed out through loan extensions. What\u2019s more, the office delinquency rate jumped to 6.5 percent<\/a> in the fourth quarter last year, a 140-basis-point increase from the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Commercial<\/a>
Data as of third quarter of 2023. GSEs were $0. Source: Trepp Inc.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The most charitable view<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s challenging\u2014that would be the most charitable view of the office market,\u201d observed Ben Kadish, president of intermediary Maverick Commercial Mortgage. \u201cEighty percent of lenders have redlined office loans because they already have too many on their books and they don\u2019t know what to do with them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that only a thin slice of offices can be converted, many lenders are hoping they can kick the can down the road and cut their losses once interest rates tick down and workers return with more regularity. That might be too optimistic relative to where the market is today, said Lonnie Hendry, chief product officer at Trepp. Absent a deep recession or unexpected disruption in the economy, a government bailout like the Troubled Asset Relief Program, commonly known as TARP, some 15 years ago is hardly likely either, he added. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cYou can\u2019t underwrite a pandemic. And you can\u2019t underwrite a 400-basis-point spike in interest rates.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\u2014Debra Henderson Morgan, Managing Director, CohnReznick<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe best and highest use for most of these sites is still going to be an office building\u2014but a super modern, highly amenitized office building,\u201d Hendry added. \u201cImagine going to investors and saying, \u2018Trust us, we\u2019re going to tear down this office building that nobody wants to occupy, put up a brand new one, and then people are going to come back.\u2019 That\u2019s a pretty hard sell.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial crisis redux<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n
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\"CMBS<\/a>
Source: Moody’s<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

New and modern Class A properties have fared well in the current environment, Kadish observed. Older Class B and C properties that are either functionally obsolete or on the border account for the lion\u2019s share of office property distress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

More specifically, U.S. offices built after 2010 recorded 1.7 million square feet of positive absorption in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to CBRE. That reflected a relatively consistent trend since the start of the pandemic, the brokerage firm reported, and the average vacancy rate of 15.2 percent was 340 basis points below the overall national vacancy figure of 18.6 percent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts also downplay the threat the office maturity defaults pose to banks. In an early March vlog on commercial real estate mortgage foreclosures and extensions, Marcus & Millichap chief researcher John Chang acknowledged that the office sector faced unique work-from-home issues.<\/a> But he likened the risk the defaults posed to the banking system to a \u201cripple\u201d vs. a \u201ctsunami.\u201d Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed those sentiments in front of Congress a few days later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, discussions of bank risk as it relates to office loan defaults and other real estate debt weren\u2019t supposed to happen. Following the Great Financial Crisis, regulators and financial institutions strengthened underwriting to prevent overleveraged deals. Remember Harry Macklowe\u2019s $6.8 billion purchase of seven Manhattan skyscrapers in 2007? He used $7 billion in loans and only $50 million in equity to finance it.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As banks and the CMBS market regained their footing a decade ago, they generally required 30 to 35 percent equity in deals, said Debra Henderson Morgan, managing director in the restructuring and dispute resolution practice of CohnReznick. But now borrowers and lenders find themselves back where they were during the GFC\u2014in both eras, office devaluations wiped out equity. In a best-case scenario today, a distressed property\u2019s value is equal to the outstanding loan amount, added Morgan, who represents sponsors and lenders in workouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m working with a lot of Class B and C properties that are valued at 50 percent of the debt, and the buildings could be anywhere, in downtowns or the suburbs,\u201d she remarked. \u201cYou can\u2019t underwrite a pandemic. And you can\u2019t underwrite a 400-basis-point spike in interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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How did the market get here? In short, a double whammy: <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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1.<\/strong> The pandemic-driven lockdowns showed that remote work could be productive to a good degree\u2014although the jury\u2019s not completely out on that. This, however, ushered in a radical change in behavior\u2014organizations realized they could operate in much less space, and employees got a taste of a more flexible and commute-free arrangement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, the national vacancy rate hit an all-time high of 19.7 percent at the end of 2023, a year-over-year increase of 200 basis points, according to Cushman & Wakefield. CBRE reported that roughly 180 million square feet of sublease space was available at the end of 2023, a 30-basis-point decline from the peak earlier in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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2.<\/strong> The Federal Reserve\u2019s abrupt end to a years-long zero-interest-rate policy fractured the property markets by propelling the cost of capital upward of 400 basis points. Combined with the hybrid work trend, it fueled maturity defaults and drove office values across the U.S. down an average of 35 percent since their early 2020 peak, according to Green Street\u2019s March price index report. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts like Goldman Sachs say a dearth of office investment sales and liquidity are hindering true price discovery, which suggests an even greater value loss is probable. Earlier this year, for example, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board sold its 29 percent stake in Manhattan\u2019s 360 Park Ave. for $1 to its partner, Boston Properties, which also assumed the investment group\u2019s share of the debt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cI don\u2019t think there has been a new invention in office space since the 1700s.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\u2014David Frosh, CEO, Fidelity Bancorp Funding<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

What to do?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As much as the acceleration in interest rates fueled a bid-ask stalemate among buyers and sellers of commercial properties beginning some 24 months ago, so too has it created a standoff between office lenders and landlords. While buyers and sellers can elect not to pursue a deal and come to no harm, lenders and building owners lack such a clear path. Here are some of their options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extend and pretend.<\/strong> Foreclosures are ticking up, but lenders and sponsors have primarily focused on office loan extensions and modifications, especially as each year brings new maturities. Regulators are encouraging the agreements. In June 2023, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve and other agencies encouraged banks to work with creditworthy borrowers in distressed times, reiterating and updating guidance introduced in 2009. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In his vlog, Chang estimated that $89 billion of distressed office debt maturing in 2023 had been pushed into 2024\u2014unsurprisingly, more than any other property category. But in most cases, the borrower has to bring some cash to the table, typically to pay down the loan or fund tenant improvement, cash flow or other reserves.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Early this year, Paramount Group and Blackstone agreed to pay down $125 million of an existing $975 million office CMBS loan on the 1.6 million-square-foot One Market Plaza in San Francisco. In return, the landlords received a three-year extension with an additional one-year option, and agreed to a 5-basis-point interest rate bump to 4.08 percent. While the building is 96 percent occupied, it faces significant lease expirations in the next few years.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“There\u2019s going to have to be some contraction in the office sector\u2014probably 20 to 40 percent of these non-viable assets\u2014for the market to get close to equilibrium.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\u2014Lonnie Hendry, Chief Product Officer, Trepp<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The question, Hendry says, is whether borrowers who inject capital to extend an office loan in default on lesser buildings will be willing to plow another slug of capital for a further extension if the current market doldrums persist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s where the rub will be,\u201d he said. \u201cIf a borrower wants to extend but doesn\u2019t want to put in fresh capital, will the lender threaten to take back the property or agree to another extension and hope that the macro environment changes?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Refinancing.<\/strong> The refinancing option has been decidedly less popular\u2014lenders typically want to avoid refinancing someone else\u2019s bad loan. Focusing solely on office CMBS<\/a>, 80 percent of the $15.2 billion in loans maturing in 2024 have performance characteristics that will make them difficult to refinance, according to Moody\u2019s. That doesn\u2019t include the $5.6 billion in 2023 CMBS office maturities that were extended or in maturity default.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, refinancings are not impossible, observers say. Location, submarket, building age, occupancy, the cost basis and rent roll are elements lenders scrutinize. But as with extend and pretend, lenders typically want a substantial equity infusion to bring down leverage to more appropriate levels. The unwillingness of sponsors to do that, along with the lack of conventional financing for offices, narrows the field to opportunistic lenders, who are charging upward of 10 percent for bridge financing, said Jeffrey Erxleben, president of debt and equity for Northmarq.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Office<\/a>
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cIf a building is outside the box\u2014with the box being well-leased and occupied, with current cash flow\u2014borrowers are going to have to find more expensive opportunistic lenders,\u201d he said. \u201cBut in theory, it\u2019s going to give them time to execute a business plan and refinance it on better terms in a short amount of time.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The size of the deal matters, as well. Lenders are more willing to dole out small amounts of debt (for well-performing buildings). In February, for example, Maverick arranged a five-year, $2.4 million loan to refinance a 30,000-square-foot office building in downtown Indianapolis.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreclosure.<\/strong> Foreclosures have historically been considered a last resort, yet they are becoming more common as efforts to extend or modify loans sputter. Increasingly, sponsors are surrendering properties through deeds in lieu of foreclosure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, voluntarily giving up buildings makes sense, considering that, as a result of financial crisis reforms, loans may convert to recourse for sponsors who fight foreclosure, Morgan observed. Lenders may also place the property into receivership, which could present tax problems for sponsors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s challenging\u2014that would be the most charitable view of the office market.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\u2014Ben Kadish, President, Maverick Commercial Mortgage<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOne of my concerns about this market is what I call \u2018perpetual receivership,\u2019 where a lender assigns a receiver and three years later the receiver is still making monthly reports,\u201d she said. \u201cThe building stays in the name of the owner and their tax ID, but someone else is managing the investment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buildings sold in foreclosure auctions reveal remarkable value losses. In February, the Montgomery Park office building in suburban Portland, Ore., returned to the lender for a credit bid of a mere $37 million after the borrower defaulted on some $150 million in debt. The property had sold for $255 million in 2019.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Following Retail<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a roundtable discussion of the economic outlook for 2024 hosted by Marcus & Millichap in January, a panelist specializing in shopping center investment recalled telling her office investment colleagues that office was undergoing a \u201csecular reckoning\u201d similar to what retail went through years before. The transition to a work-from-home mentality and the spike in interest rates are to office what category killers and e-commerce were to retail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One difference, however, is that after people were cooped up in their homes fulfilling all their needs via Amazon during the lockdown, they were eager for action as the crisis eased and went out to eat, shop and vacation. Remote workers haven\u2019t shown the same enthusiasm for a full-time return to the office, and companies are still deciding how much space they actually need. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reporting from Kastle Systems and Placer.ai, two firms that have been tracking the return to office, indicates that office occupancy hovered between 50 and 70 percent<\/a> of pre-pandemic levels in any given week or month over the past year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another difference is that retail managed to reinvent itself through smaller footprints, better inventory control, new entertainment concepts and omnichannel sales strategies, to name a few strategies. At the same time, the retail sector culled unwanted space from the market: U.S. square feet per capita dropped by about 3 percent from 2008 through 2022, according to CBRE.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Download the pdf “Office Debt: The Underwater Mountain<\/a>.”<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A wall of troublesome maturities is coming due in the next five years. 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