{"id":1004709415,"date":"2024-04-08T05:05:39","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T13:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004709415"},"modified":"2024-04-08T06:26:39","modified_gmt":"2024-04-08T14:26:39","slug":"what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre\/","title":{"rendered":"What 99 Cents Only\u2019s Demise Means for CRE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The announcement last Friday that 99 Cents Only Stores LLC was going out of business has immediately put into play the company\u2019s 44 owned and 333 leased locations in Arizona, California, Nevada and Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Brandon
\u201cThere is a strong likelihood that the spaces could be backfilled quickly,\u201d Brandon Isner, CBRE\u2019s Americas Head of Retail Research, told CPE. Image courtesy of CBRE<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

In this era of retail turmoil, the questions for the real estate industry are at least fairly predictable: How quickly are those spaces likely to be acquired? By whom? And how is the dollar store sector doing in a time of booming job growth coupled with substantial inflation anxiety?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, retail sector observers are moderately optimistic that these 300-plus locations will be in demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere is a strong likelihood that the spaces could be backfilled quickly. The average size of the 99 Cents Only stores is around 21,000 square feet, which is a good junior anchor box size that many retailers looking to expand in the U.S. seek,\u201d Brandon Isner, CBRE\u2019s Americas head of retail research, told Commercial Property Executive<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, it\u2019s more complicated than that, as Isner acknowledges: \u201cLocation is everything. Many retailers use focused location analytics to determine where their expansion strategies should be aimed. Often, they\u2019ll seek out the best submarkets and trade areas first, so the 99 Cent Only stores in growing markets will be the first to be backfilled.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO<\/strong>: As Grocers Grow Faster, Investor Interest Heats Up<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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He notes that, just by themselves, the four states where these properties are located represent about 25 percent of U.S. consumer spending. Even though California reportedly is losing population, \u201cwith an estimated $2.4 trillion in consumer spending in 2023, it remains far and away the state with the highest level of consumer spending, with Texas in second place with an estimate of over $1.4 trillion,\u201d Isner told CPE<\/em>, citing data from Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isner added that nationally, retail remains at a record-low level of availability, just 4.7 percent across the markets that CBRE tracks.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Chris Wilson, JLL\u2019s National Agency Lead, Retail estimates that about 60 percent of the 99 Cents Only stores will attract enough interest to lease quickly. Image courtesy of JLL<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Also invoking property locations and fundamentals, Chris Wilson, JLL National Agency lead, Retail, estimates that about 60 percent of the 99 Cents Only stores will attract enough interest to lease quickly. Beyond those, he commented for CPE<\/em>, \u201cTwenty-five percent of the stores will have development interest for adaptive reuse to multifamily, mixed-use or a ground lease. The final 15 percent might have trouble getting interest.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In general, he added, \u201cDemand for stores in this size range is excellent. The supply imbalance for the past three years coupled with the strong consumer economy and tenant demand makes these buildings and land they sit on very attractive and valuable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Premac, senior associate of retail brokerage for Coreland Cos., Tustin, Calif., elaborated on some further nuances: \u201cLike many real estate portfolios, 99 Cents Only has high-end and low-end locations. Some key vacancies will provide landlords with a strong opportunity to re-lease the space and upgrade rents and tenancies,\u201d he told CPE<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOther, less-desirable locations will create more of a problem for owners,\u201d he continued, \u201cas they might sit vacant or go backwards in rent. Unfortunately, we might be dealing with more of the latter, as 99 Cents Only has been working to strategically re-tenant its best real estate for several months now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likely suitors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As to which types of chain retailers might be in the market for 99 Cents Only locations, Isner stated: \u201cDiscount retailers have been known to backfill spaces within that range. Additionally, smaller-format grocery stores have backfilled a few boxes around that size, so they could potentially be in the mix.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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\u201cSome key vacancies will provide landlords with a strong opportunity to re-lease the space and upgrade rents and tenancies,\u201d Chris Premac, Senior Associate of Retail Brokerage for Coreland Cos., told CPE<\/em>. Image courtesy of Coreland Cos.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

In addition, he remarked, some department stores have been closing underperforming full-size locations and looking for smaller, off-mall locations for expansion in 2024 and beyond. Isner adds to this list of interested parties other off-price retailers and discount department stores and certain grocery stores, this last type \u201cespecially in spaces where they don\u2019t already have a presence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wilson predicts that smaller-format grocery, soft goods, discount, food, drive-thru and retailers will be interested in these sites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Premac reports that Coreland has been working with \u201cseveral expanding users targeting Southern California locations in the 15,000- to 20,000-square-foot range. Aldi, Grocery Outlet, Trader Joe\u2019s and Ace Hardware, to name a few, all pursued the similarly sized Big Lots portfolio that was on the market last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The overall health of dollar stores<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

And our last question, whether\u201499 Cents Only notwithstanding\u2014the dollar store category remains healthy, is answered mostly in the affirmative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt is true that dollar stores do well in downturns, and I believe that their overall sales have increased over the last few years, as a result of higher traffic and increased pricing strategies that most have deployed,\u201d said Wilson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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READ ALSO<\/strong>: Is Retail 2024\u2019s Sleeper Hit?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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He added, however, \u201cThe primary challenges on profitability\/margins are many, though. Costs have gone up across the board. This includes costs around shipping, materials, labor, security, construction (which impacts new store growth and renovations) and rising real estate operational and management costs (like insurance, utilities, shopping center maintenance, real estate taxes). While dollar stores operate within every socio-economic community, they have a higher concentration in urban areas, which often results in higher levels of shrink\/theft, which further impacts profitability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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\u201cThe good news is that most of the locations are well located, sized and serviced, and they should be absorbed rather quickly. The market has planned for this,\u201d Lea Clay Park of Axiom Retail Advisors, told CPE<\/em>. Image courtesy of Axiom Retail Advisors<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Lea Clay Park of Axiom Retail Advisors, Irvine, Calif., told CPE<\/em>, \u201c99 Cents Only\u2019s demise is not surprising. They simply could not compete on scale with other players in the field who enjoy exponentially larger scale and are better able to drive down COGS in this inflationary environment. Produce was their key differentiator, and several discount grocers such as Aldi and Grocery Outlet have encroached on that space in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Park, who is also executive director of X Team Retail Advisors, added, \u201cThe good news is that most of the locations are well located, sized and serviced, and they should be absorbed rather quickly. The market has planned for this.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Premac commented that \u201cOverall, the dollar store market continues to be strong, with Placer.ai noting a 7.1 percent increase in foot traffic year-over-year. However, there are winners and losers in any segment of the industry, Dollar General and Dollar Tree accounting for the increase, while 99 Cents Only and Family Dollar announcing 1,000-plus store closures coming this year and upon lease expirations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s widely expected, he added, that 99 Cents Only\u2019s and Family Dollar\u2019s losses will be gains for Walmart, Grocery Outlet, Aldi and other discount operators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere will always be a place for budget-minded or discount retailers,\u201d Isner reminds us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He reports that the default risk of retailers declined from 2.3 percent to 2.0 percent from February to March, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRetail bankruptcies happen,\u201d he commented, \u201cbut as of yet, there hasn\u2019t been a considerable rise in them when comparing the previous 10 years, on a year-to-date basis. With dollar stores, one of the primary issues is saturation, which could be eased by this news and the news of Family Dollar. That said, companies like Dollar Tree and Dollar General remain solid.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expert insights on the future of the chain\u2019s 300-plus locations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004709467,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,23891,21742,21749],"tags":[32789,32796],"class_list":["post-1004709415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-national","category-latest","category-retail","tag-cbre","tag-jll"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat 99 Cents Only\u2019s Demise Means for CRE - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"99 Cents Only Stores LLC is going out of business, putting into play the company\u2019s 44 owned and 333 leased locations.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What 99 Cents Only\u2019s Demise Means for CRE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"99 Cents Only Stores LLC is going out of business, putting into play the company\u2019s 44 owned and 333 leased locations.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-04-08T13:05:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-08T14:26:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/04\/What-99-Cents-Only-s-demise-means-for-CRE.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott Baltic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-99-cents-onlys-demise-means-for-cre\/\",\"name\":\"What 99 Cents Only\u2019s Demise Means for CRE - 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