{"id":1004700756,"date":"2024-02-06T01:14:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-06T09:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004700756"},"modified":"2024-04-02T11:51:42","modified_gmt":"2024-04-02T19:51:42","slug":"retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail\u2019s Return: Is the Sector 2024\u2019s Sleeper Hit?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Macy’s Herald Square in New York City, the department store chain’s flagship location. Traditional department stores improved their performance in December 2023. Image by Fotios Tsarouhis<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

While it’s a hyperbole to call the recent turn in retail\u2019s fortunes a renaissance, it almost seems appropriate considering parts of the sector were left for dead not long ago. The past year was an endurance test of sorts for the industry, which proved to be both <\/span>resilient and able to adapt to change<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Colliers<\/strong>, in a late-2023 report, pointed out that retailers are \u201cprime for expansion\u201d and predicted \u201ca surge in fund allocations by institutional investors in 2024.\u201d Writing in August, Todd Caruso, retail investor leader for the Americas at CBRE<\/strong>, marveled at the space’s “unparalleled growth” over the past several years.<\/p>\n

Retail is not going anywhere, said Oscar Parra, CFO of Los Angeles-based Pacific Retail Capital Partners<\/strong>. \u201cIt went through a rationalization period that\u2019s probably still ongoing, but started somewhere in 2015 and early 2016, where you really started to see the capital markets adjust around the evolution of retail.\u201d In the nearly 10 years that have followed, there have been few new construction starts, something especially true for larger shopping centers and the much-beleaguered American mall.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest challenge that retail has today is the lack of quality supply,\u201d said Anjee Solanki, national director of retail services and practice groups at Colliers, who noted that successful small businesses seeking to open second locations are often important contenders for space. \u201cIt’s really telling that retail demand outpaced supply in all of 2023,\u201d added Nicole Larson, Colliers manager, national retail services. \u201cI think that just shows you that the retailers are looking to take on more space, it’s just that the construction is not moving fast enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

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READ ALSO<\/strong>: How CRE Deals Are Changing: DLA Piper<\/a><\/p>\n

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Prior to 2019, the perception was that the sector was oversupplied, said Larson. \u201cWe’re at a point now where it’s harder to find that Class A quality space.\u201d Some 55 million square feet of retail space is under construction nationwide, with 10 million square feet, on average, having been delivered each quarter of 2023, according to Colliers\u2019 figures.<\/p>\n

\u201cRetail, in many respects, was kind of a bad word for a long time, even before COVID-19, obviously, with the trends in e-commerce,\u201d said Max LaVictoire, principal at Hodes Weill & Associates<\/strong>. \u201cPeople are coming back to shopping at stores and, at the same time, you’ve seen very little supply creation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Niche by niche<\/h2>\n

Retailers\u2019 ability to be flexible in their store formats is one reason for the sector’s resiliency. \u201cYou’re starting to see retailers become much more nimble, adapting to not only the market and what the consumer within that market is seeking but also from a physical space configuration (standpoint),\u201d weighed in Solanki.<\/p>\n

“A lot of retail investors are probably looking to do more with less space,\u201d Parra added. \u201cThere are portions of retail that are doing really, really well. When we say retail it’s not one monolith. It’s just different pieces.\u201d<\/p>\n

Some subsectors are also much healthier than others and are projected to stay that way. \u201cThe fundamentals around retail are still quite strong from an investor perspective,\u201d said Solanki, noting that anchored opportunities are particularly attractive, none more so than grocery-anchored ones which, unlike most types of outlets, performed well both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

\u201cRetail is a big category, and the subsector matters a lot,\u201d reasoned LaVictoire. \u201cThere’s not an interest in retail broadly, it’s pretty specific subsectors that are demonstrating strong supply and demand fundamentals right now and are still at attractive yields.\u201d<\/p>\n

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READ ALSO<\/strong>: Why CREFC Survey Says Things Are Looking Up<\/a><\/p>\n

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These include service-oriented retail, which encompasses cellphone stores, barbers and salons, as well as gyms, yoga studios and other wellness-focused enterprises. The strip mall-type properties that often house such businesses have \u201cclimbed the list, as far as investor interest (is concerned),\u201d added LaVictoire, noting that such service-oriented businesses are poised to be among retail\u2019s best performers. \u201cIt’s harder to move those kinds of functions online into the e-commerce space,\u201d he observed.<\/p>\n

Another business model that is difficult to replicate online is restaurants. Dining and ordering out remain popular options and as long as restaurants exist, they will require physical space, even for an entirely takeout business. Dining in, meanwhile, remains extraordinarily popular, something that makes restaurants all the more secure, much more so than other traditional tenants.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou have restaurants that are 10,000 square feet (that are) doing $10 million (to) $12 million in sales, which is mind boggling,\u201d said Parra. \u201cIf you look at certain department store locations today, they might do the same volume in 100,000 to 150,000 square feet that a restaurant does in 10,000 square feet, so there\u2019s a radical kind of shift there.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, when renting to restaurants, location is paramount. Proximity to residents is a major factor, according to Parra, as is walkability.<\/p>\n

Suburban trend<\/h2>\n

While the sector is expected to be competitive across the board, the suburban market \u201cis definitely where you’re seeing the growth from a landlord perspective,\u201d said Solanki, emphasizing that the healthy rent growth in suburban markets is a result of hybrid work and a pandemic-era shift from city living.<\/p>\n

In analyzing visitor data across the U.S., Solanki observed that daytime visits to grocery stores are not only up overall, but noticeably up during the week compared to pre-2020 figures.<\/p>\n

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READ ALSO<\/strong>: Mixed-Use Malls and the 15-Minute Neighborhood<\/a><\/p>\n

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The reshaping of habits and geography does not end at the urban-suburban divide. While Sun Belt markets such as Miami and Austin, Texas, have taken off in recent years, nearby cities like Fort Lauderdale, Fla., and San Antonio are becoming attractive due to space scarcity. \u201cI don’t want to call them emerging markets, because I think they’re pretty established at this point,\u201d said Larson, opting for \u201csecondary hot markets. It’s not too far, the population demographics are there, the income is there.\u201d<\/p>\n

Holidays buoy department stores<\/h2>\n

The traditional department store may not be Fort Lauderdale\u2019s newest boutique, or even a convenient stop on the way home, but in an era of experiences<\/a>, it’s still a holiday classic. This may explain why the niche did well this past holiday season, while mall vacancies were down quarter-over-quarter at the end of 2023.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat hasn’t been very typical for the earlier quarters of 2023,\u201d said Larson, who mentioned that some of the movement may have been from retailers trying to grab mall space before the holiday rush. Non-mall shopping centers did not see a similar increase.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, we’re seeing the mall vacancy rate sit at about 8.5 percent at the end of 2023,\u201d added Larson. Non-mall shopping centers are at 4.9 percent. \u201cThere still is a pretty big difference between the centers and malls,\u201d she noted, adding that this was not the case in 2019. \u201cThe pandemic really sort of separated the two.\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition to experience and nostalgia, there are often overlooked benefits to department store shopping, Larson pointed out. \u201cThe consumers want that sort of overall experience and also, if you’re having a hard time looking for an item for your family member, (it’s) the best place to go because you’re going to sort of get everything in a one-stop-shop type of place.\u201d<\/p>\n

How bullish are investors?<\/h2>\n

\u201cThere’s a segment of the investment community that’s still quite bullish around retail, especially since the year-over-year has been positive,\u201d said Solanki, adding that investors that previously pulled out of the sector could also be looking to reenter the space.<\/p>\n

While the broad-based institutional investor set that will pour money into the sector includes traditional players, both foreign and domestic, the level of interest and ultimate return cannot yet be predicted.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that you can generate an attractive cash-on-cash yield, I think does kind of naturally attract more cash flow-focused investors, whether that\u2019s insurance companies or pension funds, but at the same time there’s an argument to be made for yield compression,\u201d said LaVictoire. \u201cWhat we’re seeing now has not been a big rotation into retail. It’s more investors starting to spend time on retail.\u201d<\/p>\n

The general sentiment is the better macroeconomic conditions point to strong results from retail given the sector\u2019s overall improving metrics. \u201cAs the interest rates drop, capital will start to flow and, when that happens, you’re going to start to see capital moving,\u201d said Parra.<\/p>\n

However, it remains unlikely that there will be a major flood of investment activity. While positive macroeconomic developments will likely signal an uptick in allocations, it is likely to be a steady rise. \u201cWe do think that you’ll see institutional interest in the larger retail format space,\u201d concluded Parra. \u201cIt’s going to happen gradually over time as the interest rates start to drop and people get better visibility as to the capital markets.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Demand is outstripping supply in a complex market that’s coming back with gusto. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3154,"featured_media":1004700758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,22251,21783,23891,21742,21749,51037],"tags":[32789,35498,33709,34941],"class_list":["post-1004700756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-in-focus","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-retail","category-trends","tag-cbre","tag-colliers","tag-hodes-weill-securities","tag-pacific-retail-capital-partners"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRetail\u2019s Return: Is the Sector 2024\u2019s Sleeper Hit? - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Retail real estate specialists weigh in on the sector's recent resurgence and what lies ahead for retail in 2024.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retail\u2019s Return: Is the Sector 2024\u2019s Sleeper Hit?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Retail real estate specialists weigh in on the sector's recent resurgence and what lies ahead for retail in 2024.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-02-06T09:14:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-04-02T19:51:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/02\/Macys.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Fotios Tsarouhis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/\",\"name\":\"Retail\u2019s Return: Is the Sector 2024\u2019s Sleeper Hit? - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/02\/Macys.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-02-06T09:14:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-04-02T19:51:42+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/98b17361e75363c0b179f1a51ccb5cc8\"},\"description\":\"Retail real estate specialists weigh in on the sector's recent resurgence and what lies ahead for retail in 2024.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retails-return-is-the-sector-2024s-sleeper-hit\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/02\/Macys.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2024\/02\/Macys.jpg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":620,\"caption\":\"Macy's Herald Square in New York, the department store chain's flagship store. 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