{"id":1004695827,"date":"2023-12-27T05:04:38","date_gmt":"2023-12-27T13:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004695827"},"modified":"2024-01-08T00:58:59","modified_gmt":"2024-01-08T08:58:59","slug":"for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/","title":{"rendered":"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s that time of year again, when logistics development powerhouse Prologis<\/strong> takes a shot at predicting what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.<\/p>\n

In Seven Supply Chain Predictions for 2024<\/a>, the company makes some appropriately large-scale forecasts.<\/p>\n

Number one, Prologis says, \u201cThe global freight recession will reverse,\u201d as foreshadowed by double-digit growth in both port and truck traffic.<\/p>\n

\n

READ ALSO<\/strong>: Property Management Success: How AI Boosts Industrial<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Ground zero for this recovery is likely Southern California, where import volumes at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports will exceed pre-pandemic levels. Between them, the ports saw a 46 percent recovery in imports since the February 2023 nadir.<\/p>\n

\"Port<\/a>

Port volumes for Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif. Chart courtesy of Prologis Research<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

The number two prediction is that the construction bust will worsen, \u201cwith global starts hitting the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n

Higher construction costs almost everywhere except Europe are of course a factor, but added to those are expanding cap rates (which are going up across the world), which in turn has slowed development starts. Prologis reports that during this year, speculative development starts have been down by 65 percent year-over-year in the U.S.<\/p>\n

Prologis\u2019s third and fourth predictions focus outside the U.S. Rents in Latin America are expected to grow at \u201cmore than double the global average, driven in part by nearshoring.\u201d Across the Pacific, \u201cdemand in China will reach the second-highest level on record, helping work through excess supply from the past few years,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n

Number five, greater use of technology\u2014artificial intelligence in particular\u2014will increase energy needs in logistics facilities, encouraging their owners to double solar capacity. In addition, the use of autonomous mobile robots and automated storage\/retrieval systems in warehouses, along with the rising need for electric vehicle charging, will push this trend.<\/p>\n

\"Electric<\/a>

Electric truck registration and sales. Table by the International Energy Agency, courtesy of Prologis<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

Number six, Prologis is taking a bullish position on interest-rate cuts and predicting that these will double private equity funding in real estate in 2024. \u201cWe expect the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to dip below 4 percent in 2024, ahead of consensus views for around 4 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n

And number seven, the forecast predicts that cap rate trends will reverse, with U.S. and European cap rates compressing as expansion rotates to Asia.<\/p>\n

Mostly accurate<\/h2>\n

So if those are the predictions for next year, how did Prologis\u2019s forecasts for 2023<\/a> fare? A bit mixed, but more right than wrong.<\/p>\n

The company gives itself five green check marks and three red X\u2019s for its seven 2023 predictions. The top prediction for this year just ending, about warehouse development slowing, was right as to direction, though off on magnitude (hence the combined thumb-up and the thumb-down).<\/p>\n

Predictions about barriers to development in California, demand in Mexico, build-to-suit rents and sustainable warehouses all hit their marks, while predictions about India\u2019s level of development starts and e-commerce\u2019s recovery missed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The company also predicts much more solar energy use at warehouses to support AI, EVs and robots. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004695830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21782,22251,21748,23891,21742,51037],"tags":[32956],"class_list":["post-1004695827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-development","category-in-focus","category-industrial","category-national","category-latest","category-trends","tag-prologis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFor 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-27T13:04:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-08T08:58:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"793\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott Baltic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/\",\"name\":\"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-12-27T13:04:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-08T08:58:59+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555\"},\"description\":\"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg\",\"width\":793,\"height\":600,\"caption\":\"Electric truck registration and sales. Table by the International Energy Agency, courtesy of Prologis\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\",\"name\":\"Commercial Property Executive\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555\",\"name\":\"Scott Baltic\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96\",\"caption\":\"Scott Baltic\"},\"description\":\"Scott Baltic has been a contributing editor with Commercial Property Executive since 2011 and also wrote for its predecessor, Commercial Property News. He started writing about CRE in 1988 for a group of Chicago-based publications and in 1989 became the editor of Midwest Real Estate News. After moving on from there in 1991, Baltic continued writing occasionally about real estate, for publications like the Chicago Sun-Times, National Real Estate Investor, Urban Land, Shopping Center World and Architect\u2019s Newspaper. He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic - Commercial Property Executive","description":"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic","og_description":"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2023-12-27T13:04:38+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-01-08T08:58:59+00:00","og_image":[{"width":793,"height":600,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Scott Baltic","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/","name":"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg","datePublished":"2023-12-27T13:04:38+00:00","dateModified":"2024-01-08T08:58:59+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555"},"description":"Prologis predicts what the new year will bring for global supply chains\u2014and reviews its own predictions from 12 months earlier.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg","width":793,"height":600,"caption":"Electric truck registration and sales. Table by the International Energy Agency, courtesy of Prologis"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-2024-prologis-forecasts-growing-freight-traffic\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"For 2024, Prologis Forecasts Growing Freight Traffic"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555","name":"Scott Baltic","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","caption":"Scott Baltic"},"description":"Scott Baltic has been a contributing editor with Commercial Property Executive since 2011 and also wrote for its predecessor, Commercial Property News. He started writing about CRE in 1988 for a group of Chicago-based publications and in 1989 became the editor of Midwest Real Estate News. After moving on from there in 1991, Baltic continued writing occasionally about real estate, for publications like the Chicago Sun-Times, National Real Estate Investor, Urban Land, Shopping Center World and Architect\u2019s Newspaper. He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/12\/Electric-truck-registration-and-sales.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004695827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/882"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004695827"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004695827\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004695845,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004695827\/revisions\/1004695845"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004695830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004695827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004695827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004695827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}