{"id":1004677167,"date":"2023-08-30T16:22:41","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T00:22:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004677167"},"modified":"2023-09-13T04:46:05","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T12:46:05","slug":"office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/","title":{"rendered":"Office Refinancings Remain a Tough Sell"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the office market, obtaining backing for new office builds and lining up acquisition financing for M&A deals will prove tough in this environment. But refinancing is particularly daunting. However, under the right circumstances, some office owners will be able to pull it off.<\/p>\n\n\n

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READ THE DIGEST<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Office properties are facing what could plausibly be called a financing drought. Suffering from the same macroeconomic trends that have impacted commercial real estate writ large, including climbing interest rates<\/a> and a spate of bank failures<\/a>, the office sector\u2019s access to financing has also been hindered by challenges unique to its sphere.<\/p>\n

Foremost amongst these is the post-pandemic uncertainty still plaguing office properties in an era where many employees who once commuted to their offices daily are content to work from home and employers, in turn, are reluctant to lease the same square footage as before. In fact, many quickly learned they can save money by finding smaller accommodations. This has triggered fears of potential defaults on existing loans, with some prominent industry names, including Brookfield Corp.<\/a> and PIMCO<\/a>, defaulting on certain properties in the first half of this year.<\/p>\n

\"Sources:<\/a>

Sources: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Mortgage Bankers Association<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cGiven the current challenges in the office sector, there will likely be a variety of approaches taken to address the issues at hand,\u201d said Darin Mellott, vice president of capital markets research at CBRE<\/strong>. \u201cFinancial regulators have encouraged lenders to work with borrowers, so we may see some short-term extensions granted. In other cases, refinancing may be possible, but additional capital will likely need to be injected into the deal.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a report issued earlier this summer, CBRE warned that the office sector\u2019s debt funding gap was likely to increase as investors are forced to refinance at a loan-to-value ratio lower than that of their initial financing, or when the value of a property has otherwise fallen since the debt associated with a property was originated. The report estimated the debt funding gap at just under $73 billion.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is likely that some office projects will be prioritized for refinancing, but this will depend on a range of factors, including property types, specific assets, and existing relationships,\u201d said Mellott. \u201cUltimately, this is a time where markets, assets, and relationships will play a critical role in determining the outcome for the office sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cBorrowers facing a potential refinancing gap may pursue additional equity or mezzanine financing to pay off the existing loan,\u201d CBRE said in its report. \u201cIn addition, they may negotiate a discounted payoff with the lender, or an extension of the loan term if property income conditions are likely to improve. Ultimately, some borrowers may be forced to default.\u201d<\/p>\n

Debt funding gaps were prevalent across all major commercial real estate sectors during the global financial crisis of the late aughts, CBRE noted. However, this time, the debt funding gap is not appearing in all sectors but is heavily concentrated in the office space.<\/p>\n

Despite persistent liquidity challenges, some deals are getting done. \u201cYou might not get an A-plus lender, you might get a second-tier lender with a higher rate, which would be the best available rate in the market,\u201d said Ivan Kustic, a vice president at MetroGroup Realty Finance<\/strong>. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t mean the market is frozen. It\u2019s just a little bit more challenging.\u201d Being immersed in the market and leveraging relationships is key, Kustic noted, as is knowing which lenders are still active.<\/p>\n

Lenders will usually lean away from foreclosing on assets if it can be avoided, something that may–within reason–provide an impetus for facilitating some sort of refinancing. \u201cThe borrower has to bring something to the table, either market expertise, market management, (a willingness) to bring more cash into it,\u201d said Kustic. \u201cIf the client or the owner is willing to manage (the property) for free or willing to contribute something, then we\u2019ve seen lenders be way more patient and way more cooperative.\u201d<\/p>\n

The office sector\u2019s challenges, meanwhile, extend beyond traditional office. \u201cThere is a tendency to paint all office properties with the same brush, regardless of whether they may belong to a more viable subsector,\u201d said Kustic, offering medical offices as an example.<\/p>\n

Recent refinancing exceptions may prove rule<\/h2>\n

Of the deals executed in recent months, many fell far below the $100 million mark. These included Crestone Partners<\/strong>\u2019 $66 million refinancing<\/a> of a 279,188-square-foot property comprising two interconnected Class A office buildings in Denver and Brause Realty<\/strong>\u2019s $30 million refinancing<\/a> of a 700,000-square foot Class A office property at 27-01 Queens Plaza North in the New York City borough of Queens. Allianz Global Investors<\/strong> originated the debt associated with the Denver Property, while\u00a0Apple Bank<\/strong>\u00a0provided financing for the Queens deal.<\/p>\n

One deal, which exceeded $300 million, was executed by a pair of the commercial real estate sector\u2019s most recognizable names. In June, a joint venture of\u00a0Tishman Speyer<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0Silverstein Properties<\/strong> closed on the $330 million refinancing<\/a> of the Salmon Tower Building, a 32-story, 960,000-square-foot centrally located office tower at 11 W. 42nd St. in Midtown Manhattan. Newmark<\/strong>\u00a0secured a five-year, fixed-rate loan for the joint venture, with\u00a0Bank of America<\/strong>\u00a0as the largest proportional lender and\u00a0Taconic Capital<\/strong>\u00a0providing mezzanine debt.<\/p>\n

The duo of Tishman Speyer and Silverstein are hardly typical borrowers, however, nor is the property\u2019s location. For other sponsors, netting similar debt may be as out of reach as the roof of the Salmon Tower.<\/p>\n

A dearth of capital, but location is key<\/h2>\n
\"Image<\/a>

Image by sesame\/iStockphoto.com<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

There is difficulty in obtaining debt for office assets generally, not just refinancings. \u201cWe\u2019re seeing a lot of people shy away from construction risk regardless of the end-product,\u201d said Margaret Grossman, managing partner and president at New York-based real estate investment, operations and development firm T30 Capital<\/strong>, suggesting that inflation and supply-chain issues are among the contributing factors.<\/p>\n

\u201cDowntown office properties in large urban areas will suffer the biggest price declines and the most financial difficulty.\u201d That urban punch will impact the biggest metros in the U.S., said Mark Zandi, chief economist at New York-based Moody’s Analytics<\/strong>. \u201cThis most notably includes the big cities in the Northeast corridor, Chicago and on the West coast.\u201d This promises falling prices, said Zandi, though the fallout will not be limited to the sector.<\/p>\n

Once an office space disappears, it remains \u201cunclear how the vacant office space can be repurposed,\u201d said Zandi. There has been much attention paid to repackaging former office properties as housing<\/a>, but office-to-residential projects come with their own hurdles, which include building configurations and high costs.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, there are conversion projects underway in many cities and states<\/a> as governments take steps to offer incentives. However, while the prospect of a replacement for existing office space may provide some relief to industries like retail that might fear a chain-reaction from offices shuttering, it is little comfort to the office sector itself, or to its lenders.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect peak-to-trough price declines of at least 30 percent nationwide, which means in the big urban areas price declines could be double that,\u201d Zandi noted. \u201cWith fewer workers returning to downtowns, the demand for retail space will also be depressed as there are few people shopping and going to restaurants. Retail property prices are expected to decline by more than 15 percent peak-to-trough nationwide.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe availability of credit to finance office properties is tight and will get tighter as property prices fall and defaults mount,\u201d said Zandi.<\/p>\n

Alternative lenders, as well as alternative lending methods, are becoming more common in the commercial real estate space as the lack of debt from traditional providers has opened the door to financing methods like short-term loans and senior stretch loans, as well as to new players. How alternative lending methods will impact office properties is, as of yet, unknown, but will undoubtedly depend on investors\u2019 appetite for risk.<\/p>\n

Post-COVID work landscape a major factor<\/h2>\n

Many workers never returned to their offices after the early 2020 switch to remote work, and many others have only returned part time. This has created a major disruption in the office sector not seen in other asset classes. \u201cThe fundamental problem is the fallout of remote work on the demand for office space,\u201d said Zandi. \u201cRemote work is here to stay and will become slowly, but steadily, more prevalent as technology improves and new businesses form and optimize around remote work.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a recent refinance scenario analysis, Fitch Ratings<\/strong> determined that office is hardly the sole sector to suffer from high refinance risk as a result of higher interest rates. Loans backed by retail, hotel and mixed-use properties all showed a higher refinancing risk than the office sector, with office loans the most likely of the four asset classes to be refinanced. However, these sectors face more long-term stability than the office sector, whose entire future has been thrown into doubt in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

The shift to remote work has impacted residential trends as well, with fewer people needing to live in close proximity to pricey city centers and downtowns. Therefore, proximity to major transit hubs that serve commuters is an important amenity to have. For example, space near major Mid-Atlantic transport hubs like New York City\u2019s Grand Central Terminal and Pennsylvania Station, Washington, D.C.\u2019s Union Station or Philadelphia\u2019s 30th Street Station is increasingly attractive.<\/p>\n

“There is reasonably healthy leasing demand for office properties that are Class A and in close proximity to major transit hubs,\u201d said Grossman. \u201cEverything else is pretty bleak.”<\/p>\n

Despite current trends, though, Mellott expects \u201copportunistic capital to start looking more closely at the office sector over the next year or so.\u201d But, he warns, lenders will likely continue to \u201capproach office deals with caution.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the short-term outlook for office remains challenging, and it may take longer to stabilize and recover than other property types, particularly for lower-quality properties, there are indications that things are likely to begin stabilizing over the next year,\u201d said Mellott.<\/p>\n

Read the September 2023 issue of CPE.<\/em><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uncertainty is compounding the sector\u2019s problems in a difficult capital environment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3154,"featured_media":1004677649,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,21825,21747,51037],"tags":[32789,38626,36788,51459,50999,34035,37854,33224],"class_list":["post-1004677167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-finance","category-office","category-trends","tag-cbre","tag-crestone-partners","tag-metrogroup-realty-finance","tag-mortgage-banker-association","tag-newmark","tag-silverstein-properties","tag-taconic-capital-advisors","tag-tishman-speyer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOffice Refinancings Remain a Tough Sell - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Office Refinancings Remain a Tough Sell\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Uncertainty is compounding the sector\u2019s problems in a difficult capital environment.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-31T00:22:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-09-13T12:46:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/08\/iStock-1493368775-Image-by-sesame.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Fotios Tsarouhis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/\",\"name\":\"Office Refinancings Remain a Tough Sell - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/08\/iStock-1493368775-Image-by-sesame.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-08-31T00:22:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-09-13T12:46:05+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/98b17361e75363c0b179f1a51ccb5cc8\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/office-refinancings-remain-a-tough-sell\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/08\/iStock-1493368775-Image-by-sesame.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/08\/iStock-1493368775-Image-by-sesame.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":900,\"caption\":\"Trend: Office Refinancings Remain a Tough Sell. 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