{"id":1004666917,"date":"2023-06-08T03:38:26","date_gmt":"2023-06-08T11:38:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004666917"},"modified":"2023-06-15T04:16:19","modified_gmt":"2023-06-15T12:16:19","slug":"barkham-predicts-mild-recession-rapid-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/barkham-predicts-mild-recession-rapid-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Barkham Predicts Mild Recession, Rapid Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1004666934\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004666934\" data-attachment-id=\"1004666934\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/barkham-predicts-mild-recession-rapid-recovery\/richard-barkham-at-naree-2023\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"808,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Richard Barkham at NAREE 2023\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist &#038; Head of Americas Research, CBRE, image courtesy of NAREE&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg?w=808\" class=\"wp-image-1004666934 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg?w=300\" alt=\"Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist &amp; Head of Americas Research, CBRE at NAREE 2023\" width=\"300\" height=\"223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg 808w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg?resize=300,223 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg?resize=768,570 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004666934\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Richard Barkham, Global Chief Economist &amp; Head of Americas Research, CBRE. <em>Image courtesy of NAREE<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong>CBRE <\/strong>Global Chief Economist &amp; Global Head of Research Richard Barkham painted a relatively favorable outlook for the economy\u2019s impact on commercial real estate. Speaking at the <strong>National Association of Real Estate Editors <\/strong>annual conference in Las Vegas, he predicted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/shallow-recession-or-global-financial-crisis\/\">a mild recession<\/a> in late 2023 and a relatively rapid recovery.<\/p>\n<p>Key drivers, he said, include a continued surge in the digital economy and ongoing U.S. population growth, along with controlled new supply that has maintained a balance with demand.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, all the major property types have seen a drop in value, as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Industrial: a 16 percent drop, and a likelihood that recovery may take two years;<\/li>\n<li>Apartments: a 22 percent drop, and three-year likely recovery period;<\/li>\n<li>Retail: a 17 percent drop, with a four-year recovery period;<\/li>\n<li>Office: a 34 percent drop, with as much as a nine-year recovery period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While office is unquestionably enduring the greatest challenges, Barkham has found that 80 percent of the rise in vacancy is actually impacting just 10 percent of buildings. And notwithstanding some recent high-profile foreclosures, his research showed that the majority are more commoditized properties, characteristically smaller, largely in weaker submarkets that may feature higher crime or reduced amenities and built in the 1980-2009 time period\u2014for the most part glass-and-steel properties with large floorplates.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><strong>READ ALSO<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/accommodating-evs-has-a-long-way-to-go\/\">The Long Road to Accommodating EVs<\/a><\/p>\n<hr>\n<p>Barkham further found that while corporate occupants have reduced their space usage, it\u2019s not just due to employee reluctance to return to office post-COVID. He believes companies may also be taking advantage of conditions to reduce expenses until the cost of capital goes back down. In fact, he said, 77 percent of companies remain committed to having office space, with 37 percent having a goal of having employees in the office the majority of the time, 33 percent aiming for an equal split between in office and remote, and 19 percent mostly remote.<\/p>\n<p>Barkham was also optimistic about the lending market, predicting that 311 banks will fail out of a total of 4,800. With commercial real estate comprising just $21 trillion of the total $43 trillion U.S. real estate pool, and office comprising $7 trillion, he does not anticipate another Great Financial Crisis. \u201cIt\u2019s not to say it isn\u2019t a problem; it\u2019s just a question of getting a balance,\u201d he emphasized.<\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, there\u2019s \u201cstill a surplus of capital in the world economy\u201d waiting to spend, he affirmed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the NAREE conference, CBRE\u2019s chief economist praised a well-balanced office supply and demand, while identifying only a narrow band of impacted buildings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":755,"featured_media":1004666934,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,22251,21748,21783,23891,21742,21747,21749,51037],"tags":[32789,40671],"class_list":["post-1004666917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-in-focus","category-industrial","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-office","category-retail","category-trends","tag-cbre","tag-national-association-of-real-estate-editors"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Barkham Predicts Mild Recession, Rapid Recovery - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"CBRE&#039;s chief economist Richard Barkham painted a favorable outlook for the economy\u2019s impact on CRE at the NAREE conference in Las Vegas.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/barkham-predicts-mild-recession-rapid-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Barkham Predicts Mild Recession, Rapid Recovery\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CBRE&#039;s chief economist Richard Barkham painted a favorable outlook for the economy\u2019s impact on CRE at the NAREE conference in Las Vegas.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/barkham-predicts-mild-recession-rapid-recovery\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-08T11:38:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-06-15T12:16:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/06\/Richard-Barkham-at-NAREE-2023.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"808\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Suzann D. 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