{"id":1004634040,"date":"2022-12-07T09:15:24","date_gmt":"2022-12-07T17:15:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004634040"},"modified":"2022-12-09T05:21:01","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T13:21:01","slug":"for-keybank-its-back-to-location-location-and-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/for-keybank-its-back-to-location-location-and-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"For KeyBank, It’s Location, Location and Credit"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Andrew<\/a>

Andrew Lucca, Head of Income Property Group, KeyBank. Image courtesy of KeyBank<\/p><\/div>\n

With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to continue raising interest rates in 2023, financial conditions are likely to remain tight. To find out what CRE lenders and borrowers should expect over the coming quarters, Commercial Property Executive<\/em> reached out to Andrew Lucca, head of KeyBank<\/strong>\u2019s Income Property Group.<\/p>\n

How has the approach to a CRE loan request changed in the past 12 months?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> We haven\u2019t changed our overall methodology. We always start with who the client is. We look at “people, credit, real estate.” We\u2019re no different from any of the other large institutions in terms of how we approach that. We look at people first\u2014clients that kind of fit our platform. Then, we look at credit, and, then, we look at the quality of the real estate.<\/p>\n

What has changed for us is we want to make sure we\u2019re making good long-term decisions, not just decisions for the short term. We want to make sure we\u2019re looking at the individual markets. I think we are looking at markets and submarkets a lot closer in terms of potential risks. For example, oversupply in the multifamily sector.<\/p>\n

We really haven\u2019t been making many office loans at Key in the past couple of years. A couple of years ago we said we need to be very cautious about that. I believe we were ahead of the game on what is related to office. I think we are a lot more careful, and we need to make sure that we are comfortable with the asset over the next couple of years.<\/p>\n

I think the other major component right now is the rising rate environment. When you\u2019re underwriting debt service coverage, you need to make sure that you have sufficient cushion in the event interest rates rise. I think that is something that for sure has become more in focus over the past year.<\/p>\n

\n

READ ALSO:<\/strong> 10 Intriguing CRE Deals and the Brokers Who Made Them Happen<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Tell us about the property types and sectors that you are financing. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> We\u2019ve never been huge construction lenders. That\u2019s been the case since the Great Recession. We will still do it for really good clients. I think for the deals we have done, we\u2019ve seen quite a bit of increase in costs from the beginning of the year, when we started talking about the deal, until the deal was ready to close, right now. We\u2019ve seen cost increases from 10 to 20 percent.<\/p>\n

Construction is an area, for all product types, that we\u2019ve been very cautious about. We\u2019ve been that way since 2010.<\/p>\n

Multifamily is still the primary product type that we finance. We\u2019ll typically do deals coming out of construction, bring the bridge loans in place and that loan will ultimately roll into a permanent loan. Typically, we work with Fannie or Freddie or other long-term permanent lenders. We\u2019ll look at value-add transactions. Rents are moderating in some markets and there\u2019s a pretty large shortage of housing nationwide. Multifamily\u2014repositioning and lease-up deals\u2014would probably be No. 1 one on our list.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve also been doing quite a bit of industrial over the past 12 months. We\u2019re starting to slow down on that a little bit. We think the fundamentals of industrial<\/a> are still really good. There\u2019s a great need for more industrial space to deal with some of these supply chain issues that have kind of rocked the country. We\u2019re watching that space carefully and just want to make sure that space doesn\u2019t get overbuilt. I would say industrial is probably second.<\/p>\n

When it comes to retail, I think there\u2019s great retail locations. There are great retail clients out there. We\u2019re absolutely doing a little bit of retail, where the deal and the sponsor make sense.<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve mentioned earlier, we\u2019re not really looking at office unless you\u2019ve got a very long-term lease to a credit-rated tenant.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s talk about the decrease in LTV ratios. What are the property types that are seeing the lowest LTV ratios at the moment?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Image by Julita via Pixabay<\/p><\/div>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> I would say multifamily and industrial, but what\u2019s changed is that was based on the fact that cap rates were so low. You weren\u2019t LTV constrained. In a lot of cases, you were debt service coverage constrained. It\u2019s just a correlation between interest rates and cap rates. Cap rates inevitably have to go up when interest rates go up, so that, of course, puts a little bit of pressure on LTV.<\/p>\n

NOI growth, which could offset that, is still there. But, in general, I would say multifamily and industrial are probably lower on the leverage scale. But all those deals, when you underwrite them, are typically tight on debt service coverage. Even at lower LTVs. We don\u2019t worry as much about LTV. I mean we do care about it, obviously, but really the focus remains, as it has for the past couple of years, on underwriting cash flow, debt service coverage.<\/p>\n

How do you expect the lending process to change in the coming year?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> Our overall process at Key is not going to change. What is going to change is we\u2019re going to adapt to market conditions. As market conditions, such as interest rates, make themselves evident, we\u2019re going to adjust. Just like any business, when we\u2019re deploying our capital, we want to make sure we\u2019re getting a good return on that capital. We\u2019re looking at credit spreads. We want to make sure, again, we\u2019re getting paid commensurate to the risk that\u2019s being taken.<\/p>\n

For multifamily, in various markets, we\u2019re going to be looking at supply. And then we\u2019re just going to look at the rate of rent growth. We\u2019re going to make sure that our borrowers\u2019 business plans make sense to us as we move forward. For other property sectors, such as industrial, it\u2019s really going to be location specific. And, of course, who the sponsors are.<\/p>\n

Again, we don\u2019t bank a lot on pure merchant developers. Our clients are all long-term owners of real estate with long-term debt. Typically, there\u2019s long-term debt in place. From a sponsors\u2019 perspective, we\u2019re not overly concerned that if the music stops our sponsors wouldn\u2019t be able to support their transactions.<\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s going to be very market- and submarket-driven in terms of the fundamentals related to the property type we\u2019re financing.<\/p>\n

How are the larger borrowers impacted by tightening lending conditions, higher interest rates?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> I think everybody is going through this adjustment period where I don\u2019t think any of us have seen interest rates rise as quickly as they have. I\u2019ve been talking to people who have been in the business a lot longer than I have. I don\u2019t think anybody has seen short-term interest rates rise as quickly as they have this year.<\/p>\n

I think it\u2019s just our borrowers readjusting. What all of our borrowers are doing is just readjusting to the new environment<\/a>. Usually, our bigger borrowers are all very sophisticated and savvy. I think they\u2019re making sure their business plans make sense. Typically, our borrowers don\u2019t overleverage their properties. Even with the rising interest rates, they have plenty of debt service coverage on the transactions.<\/p>\n

On the development side, however, inflation absolutely affects the returns. The other part is just government regulation, particularly in the housing sector, is definitely a factor as well.<\/p>\n

I think our clients are absorbing that and trying to make sure, with their investors and equity partners, that they\u2019re developing business plans that they\u2019re able to execute on. I think everybody right now\u2014banks, borrowers\u2014are all taking stock and evaluating what happens if rates go up another 150 basis points? How does that affect my business plan? I know our borrowers are evaluating that, just like we are. I expect that to continue as things are everchanging in the space.<\/p>\n

As the pool of lenders shrinks, there is talk buyers closing real estate deals all cash. Are you seeing this?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Image by Credit Commerce via Pixabay<\/p><\/div>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> I guess there are some folks out there doing that. If you really think about it, the biggest issue right now is there are banks that pulled back. We are not one of them. We\u2019re still on the market. We\u2019re still doing business.<\/p>\n

The biggest issue is this disconnect between what a seller thinks the property is worth and what the buyer thinks the property is worth. That is a much bigger phenomenon that we\u2019ve seen, where the seller ultimately capitulates and says \u201cYes, I\u2019ll sell it for x, given the fact that treasuries have gone up.\u201d<\/p>\n

You might see some of the REITS and the larger institutional sponsors closing all cash deals\u2014they\u2019ve been known to do that from time to time. But I really haven\u2019t seen an increase at all in borrowers closing all cash.<\/p>\n

They make our lives easier. Typically, on acquisition yields, you have to have the financing ready to rock and roll when you close. It would be great if that were the case because we could take a little bit more time. But we have not seen that yet.<\/p>\n

What do borrowers need to know about CRE debt as we wrap up the year? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> I think borrowers should assume rates are going to continue to go up as long as inflation is running at an elevated pace. I am not an interest rate expert, but I think the Fed has indicated they\u2019re going to do whatever they need to do to quash inflation. I think in the short term, borrowers should assume rates are going to continue to go up. Borrowers should, whenever possible, look to fix the rates.<\/p>\n

The yield curve is inverted but I\u2019d be fixing loans, run recourse debt on those loans that can go with a long-term permanent loan right now and not have to worry about the potential effect of rising interest rates. But I do think interest rates are going to go up and I think borrowers need to reconcile that.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s going to be different than it\u2019s been in the past 10 years where rates have been at historically low levels. I think they need to hedge their bets and lock in. Rates are still really good, historically speaking. They\u2019re still low\u2014lower than they were in 2007-2008. They just have to bite the bullet and lock it down if they can. That would be my advice.<\/p>\n

\n

READ ALSO: <\/strong>The Watchwords for 2023 Are Uncertainty and Stress<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

What should we expect from capital markets in the year ahead?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lucca:<\/strong> Multifamily is still the favorite product type. The agencies are still providing significant liquidity to the space, so I don\u2019t expect any changes there. There\u2019s going to continue to be significant amounts of liquidity. The debt fund market has definitely slowed, given the rising rates and given a lot of the debt funds’ reliance on funding from their lines of credit, which has become more difficult.<\/p>\n

CMBS is still out there. We are a CMBS lender. Deals are still getting done. With CMBS, you\u2019re pretty much subject to the fluctuations of the capital markets. I think it comes down again to product type. Some product types are going to be favored\u2014multifamily and industrial. For retail, there are some long-term lenders out there. Office<\/a> and hospitality are still tougher. It\u2019s not impossible to get financing for those types in the permanent capital markets, but it\u2019s definitely tougher to do those deals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Andrew Lucca, head of the bank\u2019s Income Property Group, on why market and submarket value will weigh more when accessing debt going forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":738,"featured_media":1004634195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44033,21783,23891],"tags":[40476,32937],"class_list":["post-1004634040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-executive-profiles","category-investment","category-national","tag-cpetalks","tag-keybank"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFor KeyBank, It's Location, Location and Credit<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"KeyBank's Andrew Lucca explains why market and submarket value will weigh more when accessing debt going forward.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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