{"id":1004599989,"date":"2022-08-31T12:06:44","date_gmt":"2022-08-31T20:06:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004599989"},"modified":"2022-12-08T20:32:24","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T04:32:24","slug":"why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors\/","title":{"rendered":"Why These CRE Sectors Provide Safer Harbors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At a moment marked by inflation, slowing growth and recession fears, CRE asset categories that offer long-term potential for reliable returns are in the spotlight. Those most often cited by experts reflect a wide range, from steady perennial performers to vibrant, cutting-edge specialties. A connecting thread among these diverse examples: long-term demographic and economic trends that can withstand shorter-term shifts in conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=760030\" style=\"background-color:#00aeab\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">READ THE DIGEST<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2>Retail stalwart<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004601182\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004601182\" data-attachment-id=\"1004601182\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors\/retail-center_kissimmee_courtesy-jll\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Retail Center_Kissimmee_courtesy JLL\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Retail Center Kissimmee. Image courtesy of JLL&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg?w=800\" class=\"wp-image-1004601182\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Retail-Center_Kissimmee_courtesy-JLL.jpg?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004601182\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Retail Center Kissimmee. Image courtesy of JLL<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Grocery-anchored centers remain the retail category that is least impacted by online shopping. At midyear, online grocery sales accounted for 13.6 percent of the total grocery market, according to the&nbsp; latest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brickmeetsclick.com\/tracking-online-grocery-s-growth-\">Brick Meets Click\/Mercatus Grocery Shopping Survey<\/a>. That\u2019s up 1.5 percent year-over-year, a sign of gradual growth, but the modest share of online sales points to robust demand for brick-and-mortar grocery stores. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A principal reason is that shoppers still like seeing and touching perishable items before purchase. And grocery visits drive customer traffic at adjacent inline retailers and service businesses, such as liquor stores, dry cleaners and nail salons and similar.<\/p>\n<p>Such national grocery chains as Trader Joe\u2019s, Whole Foods, Aldi, Harris Teeter and Stop &amp; Shop make particularly effective anchors, said Mitch Rosen, managing director &amp; head of real estate for YieldStreet. \u201cThese grocers appeal to a more affluent consumer base,\u201d he said. \u201cLook at where pricing has gone in that sector; it remains very strong.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Life science leaders<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004599992\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004599992\" data-attachment-id=\"1004599992\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors\/scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-colliers\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,720\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Scientist &#038; microscope_courtesy of Colliers\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Image courtesy of Colliers&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg?w=1024\" class=\"wp-image-1004599992\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg?resize=300,180 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg?resize=768,461 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Scientist-microscope_courtesy-of-Colliers.jpg?resize=1024,614 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004599992\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image courtesy of Colliers<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Robust growth of a wide range of health-care-affiliated scientific advances, together with the aging of the population, demographic trends, favor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-a-life-science-real-estate-bubble-forming\/\">life science<\/a> as a safe ground-up development or conversion play. Despite an 18.5 percent year-over-year decline, venture capital investment totaled $20.8 billion during the first half, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nmrk.com\/insights\/thought-leadership\/2022-mid-year-life-science-overview-market-clusters\">report<\/a> from Newmark. In the four leading hubs alone\u2014Boston, San Francisco, San Diego and Raleigh-Durham\u2014the renovation and construction pipeline totals 33.2 million square feet.<\/p>\n<p>Investors have multiple geographic and investment category options as the demand for space continues unabated and markets of all sizes vie to participate. Ground-up development, expansion and adaptive reuse are all on the menu for R&amp;D and manufacturing facilities, as well as for office support space.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are seeing tremendous interest from early and mid-stage life science companies doing small-batch manufacturing . . . that don\u2019t need enormous factories,\u201d said Aaron Jodka, <strong>Colliers<\/strong> national director of capital markets research. The three dominant hubs offer diverse opportunities and distinctive characteristics for makeovers. Greater Boston often favors conversions of older properties with good bones, while in San Diego and the San Francisco Bay Area, one-story, 1980s-vintage buildings are frequently eyed for makeovers, he added.<\/p>\n<h2>Industrial potential<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004599994\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004599994\" data-attachment-id=\"1004599994\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors\/port-photo_pexels_via-pixabay\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1200,800\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Port photo_Pexels_via Pixabay\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Image by Pexels via Pixabay.com&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg?w=1024\" class=\"wp-image-1004599994\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Port-photo_Pexels_via-Pixabay.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004599994\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image by Pexels via Pixabay.com<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Multiple indicators speak to the staying power of industrial assets, even in a downturn. At midyear, vacancy stood at 4.7 percent nationwide, a 120 basis-point year-over-year decline, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialedge.com\/blog\/national-industrial-report\/\">CommercialEdge data<\/a>. Although the general conditions that have made the sector an investor magnet are well known, the factors that shape prudent industrial investment deserve a nuanced examination.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe rank industrial as offering a moderate hedge against inflationary effects,\u201d said Ian Formigle, chief investment officer at <strong>CrowdStreet<\/strong>. Providing that hedge are typical lease terms of five to 10 years, and when tenants also assume operating costs like insurance, property taxes and maintenance in triple net leases, that helps insulate operators from inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Decades of underbuilding is an often underappreciated factor in the sector\u2019s current appeal. Until the middle of the last decade, Class A urban infill industrial properties were typically 1970s-era structures, noted Aaron Appel, co-head of New York capital markets for <strong>Walker &amp; Dunlop<\/strong>. A mismatch between project costs and rents hampered development for years. That started to change only when demand finally enabled projects to pencil out.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTenants said, \u2018I can pay 25 to 75 percent more than I have, and my business will benefit from a brand-new building,\u2019\u201d Appel recalled. \u201cThat building may have more bays, higher ceilings, fewer columns or allow simpler egress.\u201d The pandemic and the closely related rise of ecommerce have further advanced the trend since early 2020.<\/p>\n<h2>Growth factors<\/h2>\n<p>Moreover, newly built Class A facilities provide efficiencies that permit manufacturing closer to the final distribution of goods. That trims transportation costs and reduces the risk of supply chain disruption. Chris McKee, principal and chief development officer for development firm <strong>CRG<\/strong>, identifies distinct regional factors that may offer hedges against an economic slowdown. The Sun Belt offers population growth; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/logistics-property-co-to-start-construction-on-suburban-chicago-projects\/\">the Midwest<\/a> has an abundance of skilled labor, lower living costs and stable economies; and in the Northeast, the limited supply of sites and long entitlement periods generate high demand for new product.<\/p>\n<p>Acquiring and developing infill logistics properties near population centers is a common but still-reliable strategy. Dwight Angelini, co-founder &amp; managing partner at <strong>Longpoint Realty Partners<\/strong>, names geographically diverse locations\u2014northern New Jersey, Los Angeles, Dallas and Miami\u2014as offering the greatest imbalance between warehouse supply and demand. \u201cThe challenge and opportunity is (that) these top-tier infill markets are inherently supply-constrained due to \u2026 challenges associated with sourcing, acquiring and developing\u201d industrial product, he said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004599995\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004599995\" data-attachment-id=\"1004599995\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/why-these-cre-sectors-provide-safer-harbors\/publix-shopping-center_warner-robins-ga_courtesy-jll\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Publix shopping center_Warner Robins Ga_courtesy JLL\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Publix shopping center, Warner Robins, Ga. Image courtesy of JLL&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg?w=800\" class=\"wp-image-1004599995\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/08\/Publix-shopping-center_Warner-Robins-Ga_courtesy-JLL.jpg?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004599995\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Publix shopping center, Warner Robins, Ga. Image courtesy of JLL<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Some experts favor advanced logistics and distribution facilities in markets with expanding populations. They cite the well-known trends of e-commerce expansion and reshoring manufacturing. Arizona Land Consulting is buying land in the western Phoenix suburb of Buckeye, Ariz. Its clients like the market\u2019s comparative proximity to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, about four and a half hours away, reported the firm\u2019s CEO, Anita Verma-Lallian.<\/p>\n<p>Coastal markets where port authorities are investing in robust upgrades are sometimes overlooked indicators of long-term potential. East Coast ports are attracting increased container volume following much-discussed bottlenecks on the West Coast, noted Stephen Evans managing director at <strong>Black Salmon<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>One example is the Port of Mobile, noted James Huang, president of eXp Commercial, eXp <strong>World Holdings<\/strong>. The port is engaged in a $368 million project that will deepen its channels 50 feet. When work is complete in 2025, the port will better serve Birmingham\u2019s emerging distribution some 250 miles to the north.<\/p>\n<p>Even in areas whose industrial markets are thriving overall, some categories may be underbuilt and offer superior safety. Such is the case in Contra Costa County, Calif., where the focus has been on larger, order-fulfillment warehouses at the expense of smaller, multi-tenant buildings. Combined with development costs 20 percent higher than will pencil out in the area, that is a formula for a low volume of new multi-tenant product.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne can forecast that with little new supply and strong demand, rents will continue to climb for smaller-sized units in industrial buildings,\u201d said Eric Rehn, vice president at <strong>Kennedy Wilson Properties<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h2>Future snapshot<\/h2>\n<p>Growing construction costs may lead investment to thin out in coming months. \u201cRents have continued to rise to offset increased costs,\u201d CRG\u2019s McKee said of the industrial sector. \u201cIf that stops, we\u2019ll see a significant downward pressure on construction starts. For now, we can\u2019t build fast enough to meet the demand.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The widespread bid-ask gap stemming from rising interest rates will be brought into alignment during the next few quarters. For many asset classes, that adjustment will occur in the next half year, but it will \u201ctake longer on CBD office buildings and convention center hotels as we adjust behaviors\u201d in a post-COVID world, predicted Terranova chairman &amp; CEO Stephen Bittel.<\/p>\n<p>Jodka says his firm is seeing gaps between buyers and sellers, price adjustments due to higher borrowing costs and deals slowing down. \u201cA slowdown is not unexpected, [nor is] a resumption early next year when interest rates have settled and buyers can more confidently underwrite borrowing costs.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=760030\"><em>Read the September 2022 issue of CPE.<\/em><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the event of a downturn, these asset categories are likely to provide a leg up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":450,"featured_media":1004601178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,21825],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004599989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-finance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - 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