{"id":1004474062,"date":"2020-09-02T15:09:20","date_gmt":"2020-09-02T23:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004474062"},"modified":"2025-03-07T07:59:42","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T15:59:42","slug":"economists-view-look-before-you-leap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-look-before-you-leap\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist&#8217;s View: Look Before You Leap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Consider the Mexican jumping bean, actually a seed pod within which a moth larva grows. Hold one in your hand and your body heat causes the larva to shift and the \u201cbean\u201d to jump. Remarkable\u2014and fun! (We can use some safe fun in these fraught times). I mention the jumping bean because it is a simple biological example of stimulus\/response. Introduce heat and \u201chop,\u201d without any intervening thought or decision.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a style=\"display: inline-block; padding: 5px 24px; border: 0; border-radius: 6px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 0.0625em; text-transform: uppercase; background: #960505; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=672463\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">READ THE DIGEST<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004475025\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004475025\" data-attachment-id=\"1004475025\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-look-before-you-leap\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,620\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"pexels-tim-savage-2330029\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Image by Tim Savage from Pexels.com https:\/\/www.pexels.com\/@timsavage&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Image by Tim Savage from Pexels.com&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg?w=800\" class=\"wp-image-1004475025 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg\" alt=\"Image by Tim Savage from Pexels.com\" width=\"300\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg?resize=300,233 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg?resize=768,595 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004475025\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><em>Image by Tim Savage from Pexels.com<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n<p>So too, in the initial reaction to the onset of COVID-19 and the economic shutdown that led to the second quarter\u2019s historic 32.9 percent annualized GDP decline, there were some anticipated real estate responses widely circulated. Even this early in the pandemic\u2019s evolution\u2014and I expect the coronavirus to be a direct influence on the U.S. economy for a minimum of the next 18 months or so\u2014many of those real estate expectations appear to be simply jumping to conclusions.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>Early theories<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>With New York City and environs as the first epicenter of disease, for example, we saw much speculation about how dense urban areas, especially those cities that emerged as \u201c24-hour city\u201d real estate leaders over the past quarter-century, suddenly found their strengths transmuted into weaknesses. Vibrant person-to-person agglomeration economies, rich externalities in the form of education, entertainment and culture and the support that mass transit provides to businesses all had presumably become detrimental. Comparative advantage was, by this theory, shifting decisively to suburbs and to the automobile-dominant Sun Belt, where lower densities reduced the COVID-19 risk.<\/p>\n<p>But, since May, we have found that no part of the country is exempt from the coronavirus infection. California, Texas and Florida have now surpassed New York and the adjacent states of New Jersey and Connecticut in confirmed cases. A city like Houston, with deep health-care infrastructure anchored by the Texas Medical Center, found itself scrambling to handle the disease surge. Even rural counties in the Rio Grande Valley saw cases rise beyond hospital capacity. The situation in Florida forced the Republican National Convention to be cancelled as an in-person event. The Mississippi state legislature turned out to be a super-spreader vector.<\/p>\n<p>And so it goes.<\/p>\n<h2>Uneven disruption<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004386532\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004386532\" data-attachment-id=\"1004386532\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/irrs-2020-outlook-decidedly-mixed\/hugh-kelly\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"728,542\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Hugh Kelly\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Hugh Kelly. Image courtesy of IRR&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Economist\u2019s View: Why the Fed\u2019s Not Done Raising Interest Rates&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg?w=728\" class=\"wp-image-1004386532 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg\" alt=\"Hugh Kelly. Image courtesy of IRR\" width=\"300\" height=\"223\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg 728w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/01\/Hugh-Kelly.jpg?resize=300,223 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004386532\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hugh Kelly<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In all, 16 states had daily cases increase by 1,000 or more as of Aug. 5, affecting cities like Birmingham, Ala., Las Vegas, Nashville, Tenn., Phoenix and Charlotte. Several states that had accelerated their economic reopening based upon assumptions related to lower densities and favorable experiences during the first months of the pandemic were forced to roll back their initiatives as disease metrics spiked in June and July, as monitored by Johns Hopkins\u2019 authoritative count of cases, hospitalizations and mortality.<\/p>\n<p>There has been no shortage of webinars, newsletter commentary and client alerts expressing opinions about impacts on particular property types. Offices, for example, are facing countervailing factors whereby the \u201cdensification\u201d of space use\u2014more people crammed into less space\u2014may be a reversing trend to accommodate social distancing, but the work-from-home option increases with negative implications for absorption. The aggregate effect on office space demand remains a murky business.<\/p>\n<p>Shelter-in-place behaviors have been a boon to e-commerce providers like Amazon. Amazon\u2019s shares have risen 62 percent this year compared to the S&amp;P 500, which is basically flat year-to-date as of early August. Amazon has hired 175,000 warehouse workers to cope with surging demand. But, although logistics companies and the industrial real estate sector generally have been over-performers in 2020, supply-chain disruptions have come to the fore in the pandemic. A significant rethinking of just-in-time supply models is underway and real estate in port cities, regional distribution hubs and other e-commerce centers will be adapting in ways that are at variance\u2014perhaps sharply so\u2014from the trendlines describing the overall economy.<\/p>\n<h2>Wait and see<\/h2>\n<p>As far as urban, suburban or rural residential demand is concerned, NAR\u2019s research department indicates some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nar.realtor\/research-and-statistics\/research-reports\/market-recovery-survey\">surprising strength on the housing front<\/a>, with some marginal advantage to suburbs at the moment but with expectations that the major geographic categories will track in harmony in the coming year or so. Realtor.com data shows remarkable consonance in urban core vs. suburban or rural vs. town homebuyer traffic both before and during the pandemic, and an indication that tech hubs including Boston, Denver, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle are ahead of the curve in a housing recovery.<\/p>\n<p>In sum, the data are fluid in 2020\u2019s third quarter, but they do challenge some of the jump-to-conclusions assumptions triggered at the onset of the COVID-19 era. Worldwide, nations that have more successfully addressed the coronavirus surge of early 2020 are reporting, for instance, that mass transit risks seem to be lower than expected, according to data from France and Japan. But school opening risk is more severe, for example, in Israel.<\/p>\n<p>That fluidity should not surprise us. We still know relatively little about SARS-CoV-2, but we do know that viruses mutate faster than economies or real estate markets. So, for real estate decision-makers, a wait-and-see attitude is a prudent posture. Leaping like a jumping bean based on short-term headlines and knee-jerk assumptions is unlikely to lead to successful behavior either in the immediate future or over any reasonable investment horizon.<\/p>\n<p><em>Hugh F. Kelly is director of graduate programs &amp; chair of the executive advisory council curriculum committee at the Fordham University Real Estate Institute, and chair of the institute\u2019s executive advisory council curriculum committee. He is a principal at Hugh F. Kelly Real Estate Economics, a consultancy. Kelly is the author, most recently, of &#8220;<\/em><strong><em>2<\/em><\/strong><em>4-Hour Cities: Real Investment Performance, Not Just Promises&#8221;<\/em><em>&nbsp;(Routledge\/Taylor &amp; Francis).<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=672463\"><em>Read the September 2020 issue of CPE.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A wait-and-see attitude is the prudent approach when making investment decisions in the age of COVID-19, according to economist Hugh F. Kelly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1082,"featured_media":1004475025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,37752],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004474062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-research-center-economy-ecommerce"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economist&#039;s View: Look Before You Leap - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-look-before-you-leap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economist&#039;s View: Look Before You Leap\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A wait-and-see attitude is the prudent approach when making investment decisions in the age of COVID-19, according to economist Hugh F. 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Kelly is the author, most recently, of 24-Hour Cities: Real Investment Performance, Not Just Promises (Routledge\\\/Taylor &amp; Francis).\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/author\\\/hughfkelly\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Economist's View: Look Before You Leap - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/economists-view-look-before-you-leap\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Economist's View: Look Before You Leap","og_description":"A wait-and-see attitude is the prudent approach when making investment decisions in the age of COVID-19, according to economist Hugh F. 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Kelly","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Hugh-Kelly-300x223-1.jpg?w=96","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Hugh-Kelly-300x223-1.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2021\/05\/Hugh-Kelly-300x223-1.jpg?w=96","caption":"Hugh F. Kelly"},"description":"Hugh F. Kelly is director of graduate programs &amp; chair of the executive advisory council curriculum committee at the Fordham University Real Estate Institute, and chair of the institute\u2019s executive advisory council curriculum committee. He is a principal at Hugh F. Kelly Real Estate Economics, a consultancy. Kelly is the author, most recently, of 24-Hour Cities: Real Investment Performance, Not Just Promises (Routledge\/Taylor &amp; Francis).","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/hughfkelly\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2020\/08\/pexels-tim-savage-2330029.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004474062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1082"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004474062"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004474062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004749974,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004474062\/revisions\/1004749974"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004475025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004474062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004474062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004474062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}