{"id":1004362685,"date":"2019-10-24T08:30:21","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T16:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004362685"},"modified":"2019-10-28T07:33:52","modified_gmt":"2019-10-28T15:33:52","slug":"5-predictions-for-cre-from-the-connect-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/5-predictions-for-cre-from-the-connect-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"5 Predictions for CRE Finance and Investment"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"The big question at the Connect National Investment & Finance conference held in New York City yesterday was: Will there be a recession and, if so, when?<\/p>\n

While that question went largely unanswered, debt and equity experts offered a number of near-term predictions. Here are five that would have a major impact on commercial real estate’s stability:<\/p>\n

1. Persistent Economic Vitality<\/h2>\n

Pacific West Bank Managing Director Mark Silverstein foresees a continually robust U.S. economy because the economy is the strongest plank in President Trump\u2019s reelection platform. Therefore, the Fed will “jump in”<\/em> to do whatever it needs to do to keep the momentum going.<\/p>\n

2. Capital Consolidation<\/h2>\n

Revere Capital Senior Vice President Jonathan Shapiro envisions a consolidation of alternative lenders since, he says, there is \u201cfar too much capital\u201d<\/em> in the market. Intense competition is leading some lenders in the debt and \u201cdequity\u201d spaces to offer higher leverage than they should, Shapiro said. <\/p>\n

3. Surplus Stock<\/h2>\n

Thorofare Capital Principal Brendan Miller forecast an oversupply of speculative office space as the economy settles into a slower growth mode. Class A apartment developers will also struggle to rent new units. Additionally, gateway city condo developers in the $3 million and up segment will also have trouble finding buyers, noted Madison Realty Capital Director Mark Zegen.<\/p>\n

4. Tech Layoffs<\/h2>\n

Zegan added that office consumption will certainly be curtailed should the fastest-growing absorber of space hits a snag. \u201cIf the tech bubble bursts, there will be significant layoffs,\u201d<\/em> he said. (Could WeWork\u2019s pending dismissal of 4,000 employees be a precursor of more pain to the come?)<\/p>\n

5. Rent Control Restricted<\/h2>\n

Hunt Real Estate Capital Director Michael Schneider predicted that at least one provision of New York City\u2019s strict new rent control regulations\u2014the limiting of annual capital improvement rent increases approved within the prior seven years to 2 percent per year\u2014will be ruled unconstitutional and rolled back. <\/p>\n

Look out for coverage of Connect Media’s Opportunity Zone conference also held yesterday. <\/em><\/p>\n