{"id":1004356796,"date":"2019-10-01T02:17:36","date_gmt":"2019-10-01T10:17:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004356796"},"modified":"2019-10-01T07:03:59","modified_gmt":"2019-10-01T15:03:59","slug":"staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Staying Disciplined, Hedging Risk in Tomorrow\u2019s CRE Financing World"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>

DLA Piper Global Real Estate Summit 2019. Left to right: Mark Myers, Tom Flexner, Greta Guggenheim, Jonathan Pollack and Tiffany Thurber. Image courtesy of Michelle Weeks<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

At DLA Piper\u2019s 15th Global Real Estate Summit, the second of two sessions on commercial real estate\u2019s financial side, titled \u201cThe Future of Real Estate Finance,\u201d tackled a daunting subject, but the panelists brought decades of experience to their spirited discussion.<\/p>\n

Moderator Mark Myers, executive vice president & head of commercial real estate at Wells Fargo, started the conversation by noting that the mortgage market is about a $3.5 trillion business, roughly 50 percent of which is held in the regulated commercial bank market. The remainder is roughly equal parts CMBS, life insurers, the GSEs and other non-regulated lenders, both public and private.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe lanes now are confused, because everybody plays in everybody else\u2019s lane,\u201d<\/em> Myers said, adding that \u201cDelinquencies are at an all-time low<\/a> in the debt space, less than 1 percent, about 70 basis points. To put that in perspective, at the height of the great financial crisis, delinquencies were about 9 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

See our full coverage of the 2019 DLA Piper Global Summit<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Asked to comment on how CRE lenders will make it through 2020, panelist Tom Flexner, vice chairman & global head of real estate at Citigroup, noted that this is the longest business cycle we\u2019ve ever seen. He pointed out, however, that \u201cThere\u2019s no law that requires a baseball game to end at nine innings.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Flexner added that any of multiple factors\u2014but probably not CRE\u2014could precipitate the next recession<\/a>. Greta Guggenheim, CEO & president of TPG Real Estate Finance Trust, said that despite perhaps a little loosening in private debt funds, \u201cThere is very significant discipline in the market.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n

Myers focused on this topic for a bit, asking how lending discipline is maintained with so much money out there.<\/p>\n

Tiffany Thurber, vice president in Goldman Sachs & Co.’s investment banking division, commented that a majority of studies have shown that loan-to-value ratios in CMBS have improved. As for Goldman Sachs, she added: \u201cA lot of times we\u2019re focused on a market that we really like, a sponsor we really like, but maybe they\u2019re a slightly riskier loan to get to the right cost of capital.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cWe just don\u2019t see a lot of requests that are irresponsible in terms of leverage,\u201d<\/em> said Jonathan Pollack, Blackstone senior managing director & global head of real estate debt strategies. He added that most people crafting deals these days are very careful to allow for the possibility of market volatility.<\/p>\n

The problem of values<\/h2>\n

Myers then asked about a disconnect in values between public and private markets. \u201cSometimes they actually dovetail, but increasingly they don\u2019t,\u201d<\/em> Flexner said. \u201cHistorically, you would find that public REIT values and private real estate values were pretty much on top of one another. That was at a point in time when most public REIT investors were sort of core real estate investors.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cBut over the past few years,\u201d<\/em> he continued, \u201cthe REIT market has attracted people we call tourists, which are the hedge funds. And they\u2019re not even thinking about NAV. They\u2019re thinking about dividend growth, stock appreciation, unrelated to the net asset value discipline that the core guys did. So you\u2019ve seen this sort of decoupling over time\u201d<\/em> in multiple property types.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not unusual, and I don\u2019t think it\u2019s necessarily worrying,\u201d<\/em> Flexner summed up. The question is often asked whether net asset values or public values are more predictive, he said, \u201cand I don\u2019t think anybody knows.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Asked which specific markets or asset classes are problematic, Guggenheim replied, \u201cThe most important thing is alignment of interests between the lender and borrower. And if you have real skin in the game, that\u2019s really important\u2014and to keep that skin in the game until the property is showing some positive cash flow.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Before the recession, she said, \u201cYou did see lenders get a little too exuberant and underwrite cash flow that didn\u2019t exist, using market rents that had never been achieved\u201d<\/em> and in fact never materialized. Now, however, \u201cHaving in-place cash flow is really key.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a lot of competition,\u201d<\/em> Guggenheim continued. \u201cIt\u2019s very easy for a borrower to obtain a well-structured transitional loan today,\u201d<\/em> even though real estate underwriters are more disciplined now. \u201cRetail for a lender has been challenging for quite some time,\u201d<\/em> she said, especially for Class B or lower malls that are struggling for cash flow.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor,\u201d<\/em> Pollack said, \u201cis to be in a place where you\u2019re seeing a lot of rental growth and hopefully not a huge amount of supply following that growth.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

READ ALSO:<\/strong> Commercial, Multifamily Originations\u2014See the Figures<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Goldman Sachs does a lot of single-tenant lending in the CMBS space, Thurber said, and \u201cThat is very corporate parent\u2013dependent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Myers commented that according to Wells Fargo\u2019s own loan servicing, they\u2019re seeing outsized or increasing delinquencies in student housing, partly because of excess supply; in the suburban hotel market; and in single-tenant office and secondary locations.<\/p>\n

Risks\u2014and looking ahead<\/h2>\n

Meyers moved the discussion along to how do the panelists think about risks, including interest rate uncertainty, the economic cycle, the regulatory environment and global economic conditions.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe try to think about everything we can,\u201d<\/em> was Flexner\u2019s answer. A la Donald Rumsfeld, he said, \u201cWe try to focus on what we know that we don\u2019t know, because those are the risks, and the risks that you don\u2019t even know about, those are the real ones.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Regarding interest rates, Flexner said, it\u2019s important for loans intended for securitization to condense the time between origination and securitization. Still, he stressed, \u201cI don\u2019t think you can originate a loan that you\u2019re not willing to own.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen a lot of people go toward this L-shape,\u201d<\/em> said Thurber, that is, taking a small vertical sliver of the capital stack that stays on the balance sheet, plus a horizontal slice that can be sold.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe real interest rate risk is not whether you\u2019re hedging your rate,\u201d<\/em> Flexner said. \u201cThe real interest rate risk is what happens seven years down the road with a balance sheet loan, when interest rates spike, and the residual value gets nailed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cThe great news in that regard,\u201d<\/em> he continued, even with CRE values propped up in large measure by low interest rates, is that the average LTV is now in the mid-50s, versus 10 percentage points higher 11 years ago. Similarly, debt service coverage ratios are much higher now than before the recession\u2014at least 2 versus about 1.3 then\u2014Flexner said. \u201cThere\u2019s more capacity for interest rates to rise without the senior lender getting knocked off \u2014 but it\u2019s still troubling.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Myers wrapped up by asking how the industry might look different in five years.<\/p>\n

\u201cTechnology for real estate has a long way to go to be truly useful,\u201d<\/em> said Guggenheim. Though tech can help gather data and put it in a useful format, \u201cParticularly on the credit side, it comes down to individual judgments.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Flexner predicted that the GSEs will reduce their multifamily lending and focus more on subsidized and affordable housing, and that EB-5 financing could become be far more restricted.<\/p>\n

Finally, Guggenheim opined, \u201cOur entire industry needs to incorporate interest-rate floors.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Where is lending headed? Executives from Citigroup, TPG, Goldman Sachs and Blackstone tackled that crucial question at the latest DLA Piper Global Summit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004356799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1491,21808,21825,23891,21742],"tags":[33169,33026,33435,47237,33129,37071,33277],"class_list":["post-1004356796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chicago","category-featured","category-finance","category-national","category-latest","tag-citigroup-inc","tag-dla-piper","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-mark-myers","tag-the-blackstone-group","tag-tpg-re-finance-trust","tag-wells-fargo"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStaying Disciplined, Hedging Risk in Tomorrow\u2019s CRE Financing World - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Staying Disciplined, Hedging Risk in Tomorrow\u2019s CRE Financing World\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Where is lending headed? Executives from Citigroup, TPG, Goldman Sachs and Blackstone tackled that crucial question at the latest DLA Piper Global Summit.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-01T10:17:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-10-01T15:03:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/10\/DLA-Piper-Global-Summit-2019-The-Future-of-Real-Estate-Finance-e1569923797387.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"988\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott Baltic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/\",\"name\":\"Staying Disciplined, Hedging Risk in Tomorrow\u2019s CRE Financing World - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/10\/DLA-Piper-Global-Summit-2019-The-Future-of-Real-Estate-Finance-e1569923797387.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-01T10:17:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-10-01T15:03:59+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/staying-disciplined-hedging-risk-in-tomorrows-cre-financing-world\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/10\/DLA-Piper-Global-Summit-2019-The-Future-of-Real-Estate-Finance-e1569923797387.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/10\/DLA-Piper-Global-Summit-2019-The-Future-of-Real-Estate-Finance-e1569923797387.jpg\",\"width\":988,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"DLA Piper Global Real Estate Summit 2019. 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