{"id":1004351981,"date":"2019-09-12T06:51:57","date_gmt":"2019-09-12T14:51:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004351981"},"modified":"2019-09-12T06:51:57","modified_gmt":"2019-09-12T14:51:57","slug":"history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_1004337656\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004337656\" data-attachment-id=\"1004337656\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/what-to-expect-from-deutsche-banks-reorganization\/ronen-shlomi\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,620\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;4&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;Canon EOS 5D Mark III&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1440028800&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;190&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;125&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.005&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Ronen-Shlomi\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Shlomi Ronen, Managing Principal &#038; Founder of Dekel Capital. Image courtesy of Dekel Capital&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg?w=800\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-1004337656\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg?resize=300,233 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg?resize=768,595 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004337656\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shlomi Ronen, Managing Principal &amp; Founder of Dekel Capital. Image courtesy of Dekel Capital<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In August we witnessed a classic recessionary signal when yields on long-term bonds fell below that of their short-term counterparts, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve.&nbsp; So when the spread between the 10-year and two-year Treasuries turned negative (actually three times in less than two weeks), concerns about the economy\u2019s health began to escalate. Afterall, over the past 50 years the inverted yield curve has been a pretty accurate warning sign of a pending recession.<\/p>\n<p>However, while it would be irresponsible to completely ignore the yield inversion\/recession metric, it is worth noting that there are several mitigating factors in play that suggests the current bond market environment could be a false indicator of a pending recession. We are seeing negative bond yields in both Germany and Japan which has made U.S. debt more attractive (even at yields in the mid-one percent range). In addition the Federal Reserve\u2019s unprecedented bond buying program post-recession artificially kept the 10-year yield low.<\/p>\n<p>From an interest rate standpoint, we have not seen an equal tightening of long term interest rates comparable to the drop in treasury yields. This, however, will likely be short lived as we enter into the fall and winter months and Wall Street returns from their August vacations.<\/p>\n<h2>Lazy Days of Summer<\/h2>\n<p>Historically very little securitization activity takes place during the late summer months lack of activity gives lenders very little to benchmark against and makes it more challenging to get an accurate reading market spreads as they are building their fall\/winter securitization pools.<\/p>\n<p>In the coming weeks, with $25B of non-Agency CMBS securitization set to hit the market, we expect to see spreads tighten as Lender\u2019s trading desks are able to use current market data to price their new loans.<\/p>\n<p>The current state of the bond market can be largely attributed to the growing economic uncertainty created by the U.S.\/China trade tensions. In the commercial real estate sector, we\u2019ve already seen the direct impact of those tensions with the increased cost of both raw and finished building materials. However, continued strength in employment has helped sustain rents on most property types and keep tenant demand strong.<\/p>\n<p>The combination of sustained economic strength and borrowing costs compressing is creating a perfect storm for commercial real estate investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Several mitigating factors in play that suggest the current bond market environment could be a false indicator of a pending recession, says Shlomi Ronen of Dekel Capital.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1250,"featured_media":1004337656,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21684],"tags":[36700],"class_list":["post-1004351981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-viewpoint","tag-dekel-capital-inc"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Several mitigating factors in play that suggest the current bond market environment could be a false indicator of a pending recession, says Shlomi Ronen of Dekel Capital.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-12T14:51:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Shlomi Ronen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/\",\"name\":\"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-09-12T14:51:57+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7d9195aa2144e22ce9792fec5296bd6b\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg\",\"width\":800,\"height\":620,\"caption\":\"Shlomi Ronen, Managing Principal & Founder of Dekel Capital. Image courtesy of Dekel Capital\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\",\"name\":\"Commercial Property Executive\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7d9195aa2144e22ce9792fec5296bd6b\",\"name\":\"Shlomi Ronen\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a413cbc13faca0811cff4db8052583ee6cc1be329871ea2b7633ac60d7d75017?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a413cbc13faca0811cff4db8052583ee6cc1be329871ea2b7633ac60d7d75017?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Shlomi Ronen\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/shlomironen\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession","og_description":"Several mitigating factors in play that suggest the current bond market environment could be a false indicator of a pending recession, says Shlomi Ronen of Dekel Capital.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2019-09-12T14:51:57+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":620,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Shlomi Ronen","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/","name":"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg","datePublished":"2019-09-12T14:51:57+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7d9195aa2144e22ce9792fec5296bd6b"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg","width":800,"height":620,"caption":"Shlomi Ronen, Managing Principal & Founder of Dekel Capital. Image courtesy of Dekel Capital"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/history-aside-inverted-yield-curve-may-not-signal-next-recession\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"History Aside, Inverted Yield Curve May Not Signal Next Recession"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/7d9195aa2144e22ce9792fec5296bd6b","name":"Shlomi Ronen","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a413cbc13faca0811cff4db8052583ee6cc1be329871ea2b7633ac60d7d75017?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a413cbc13faca0811cff4db8052583ee6cc1be329871ea2b7633ac60d7d75017?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Shlomi Ronen"},"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/shlomironen\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/07\/Ronen-Shlomi.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004351981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1250"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004351981"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004351981\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004351990,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004351981\/revisions\/1004351990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004337656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004351981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004351981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004351981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}