{"id":1004290277,"date":"2019-01-09T05:51:54","date_gmt":"2019-01-09T13:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004290277"},"modified":"2022-12-07T04:33:56","modified_gmt":"2022-12-07T12:33:56","slug":"yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By the Editors of Commercial Property Executive<\/p>\n<p>Concerns that an inverted yield curve could signal a pending recession\u2014despite the seemingly prospering economy\u2014has led the Federal Reserve to announce that further hikes in short-term rates will be &#8220;data dependent.&#8221;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The Mortgage Bankers Association&#8217;s &#8220;Chart of the Week&#8221; last week showed that the yield curve has recently inverted at several points along the curve, with shorter-term rates higher than some longer-term rates.<\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Yield Spreads<\/h2>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004290610\" style=\"width: 1259px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004290610\" data-attachment-id=\"1004290610\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/croppedchart-of-the-week-01042019-final-4\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"1249,700\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Zubrick, Brennan&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CroppedChart of the Week 01042019 Final\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Mortgage Bankers Association\/Federal Reserve&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg?w=1024\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1004290610\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1249\" height=\"700\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg 1249w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg?resize=300,168 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg?resize=768,430 768w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg?resize=1024,574 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1249px) 100vw, 1249px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004290610\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mortgage Bankers Association\/Federal Reserve<\/p><\/div>\n<p>&#8220;The spread between the 10- and two-year has averaged around 120 basis points since 1998, with the 10-year rate typically higher than the 2-year rate, as investors are compensated for the higher risk of holding a longer term bond,&#8221;&nbsp; wrote MBA&#8217;s Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni and Joel Kan, assistant vice president of Industry Forecasts and Surveys. &#8220;Over the past two years, this spread has dropped below its average and continued to narrow, reaching a mere 15 basis points in December 2018. Similarly, the spread between the 2-year and 3-month bonds averaged around 60 basis points for the charted period, and for most of 2018, until narrowing sharply to 27 basis points in last month. This spread went negative at certain points in recent days.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In addition to the inverted yield curve, the stock market was also showing signs of distress at the end of the year. But the economic data\u2014including robust job growth in December\u2014shows the economy is still strong.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe believe that the risk of a recession is higher over the next year given these factors, but expect that the combination of relatively low rates and a still-growing economy should continue to lay the foundation for favorable commercial real estate fundamentals and strong lender demand in 2019,\u201d wrote Fratantoni and Kan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the financial markets have been sending out alarm signals, the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see-approach.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":756,"featured_media":1004290610,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21825,37753,23891],"tags":[34040],"class_list":["post-1004290277","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","category-research-center-finance","category-national","tag-mortgage-bankers-association"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While the financial markets have been sending out alarm signals, the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see-approach.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-09T13:51:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-07T12:33:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1249\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Therese Fitzgerald\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/\",\"name\":\"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low - Commercial Property Executive\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-09T13:51:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-07T12:33:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/72a93f240402a8c7f4e56a69aed5f713\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg\",\"width\":1249,\"height\":700,\"caption\":\"Mortgage Bankers Association\/Federal Reserve\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/\",\"name\":\"Commercial Property Executive\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/72a93f240402a8c7f4e56a69aed5f713\",\"name\":\"Therese Fitzgerald\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/02\/head.jpg?w=96\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/02\/head.jpg?w=96\",\"caption\":\"Therese Fitzgerald\"},\"description\":\"Therese Fitzgerald has nearly 20 years experience writing and editing commercial real estate content. She got her start writing about the New York City market with Real Estate Weekly and later joined CPE\u2019s predecessor publication, Commercial Property News, where she held various positions including editor in chief. In addition to working on the CPE and MHN websites, she edits CPE's Capital Markets Newsletter and MHN's Finance &amp; Investment Newsletter. Tune into her Sustainability Street podcast on CPE.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/therese-fitzgerald\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low","og_description":"While the financial markets have been sending out alarm signals, the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see-approach.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2019-01-09T13:51:54+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-12-07T12:33:56+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1249,"height":700,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Therese Fitzgerald","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/","name":"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg","datePublished":"2019-01-09T13:51:54+00:00","dateModified":"2022-12-07T12:33:56+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/72a93f240402a8c7f4e56a69aed5f713"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg","width":1249,"height":700,"caption":"Mortgage Bankers Association\/Federal Reserve"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/yield-curve-concerns-to-keep-rates-relatively-low\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Yield Curve Concerns May Keep Rates Relatively Low"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/72a93f240402a8c7f4e56a69aed5f713","name":"Therese Fitzgerald","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/02\/head.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2023\/02\/head.jpg?w=96","caption":"Therese Fitzgerald"},"description":"Therese Fitzgerald has nearly 20 years experience writing and editing commercial real estate content. She got her start writing about the New York City market with Real Estate Weekly and later joined CPE\u2019s predecessor publication, Commercial Property News, where she held various positions including editor in chief. In addition to working on the CPE and MHN websites, she edits CPE's Capital Markets Newsletter and MHN's Finance &amp; Investment Newsletter. Tune into her Sustainability Street podcast on CPE.","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/therese-fitzgerald\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2019\/01\/CroppedChart-of-the-Week-01042019-Final-3.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004290277","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/756"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004290277"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004290277\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004290901,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004290277\/revisions\/1004290901"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004290610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004290277"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004290277"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004290277"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}