{"id":1004262437,"date":"2018-09-05T23:01:41","date_gmt":"2018-09-06T07:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004262437"},"modified":"2022-12-08T09:48:22","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T17:48:22","slug":"bears-eye-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/bears-eye-view\/","title":{"rendered":"Bear\u2019s-Eye View"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Paul Rosta, Executive Editor<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004226297\" style=\"width: 360px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004226297\" data-attachment-id=\"1004226297\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retail-in-a-nutshell\/p_rosta\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,600\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"P_Rosta\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg?w=800\" class=\"wp-image-1004226297\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg\" alt=\"Executive Editor Paul Rosta\" width=\"350\" height=\"263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg?resize=300,225 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/05\/P_Rosta.jpg?resize=768,576 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004226297\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Executive Editor Paul Rosta<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Reporters and real estate professionals alike find major anniversaries a good time to take stock, and we\u2019re about to get an earful about a watershed event. Exactly ten years ago this month was the beginning of the capital markets meltdown that launched the worst economic crisis in 75 years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\"><a style=\"padding: 5px 24px;border: 0;border-radius: 6px;font-weight: bold;letter-spacing: 0.0625em;text-transform: uppercase;background: #960505;color: #ffffff;text-decoration: none\" href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=524961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">READ THE DIGEST<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Like all reporters, I watched the impact on the commercial real estate industry from the sidelines. Yet the recession made its mark on my perspective, too. For instance, I\u2019ll never longer look at indicators quite the same way I did before September 2008.<\/p>\n<p>If there\u2019s plenty of capital flowing into real estate to fuel development, investment and refinancing, my first thought is still that it\u2019s a boon for business. As Amanda Marsh writes in this month\u2019s capital markets update, the entry of new players into the debt markets is expanding choices for commercial real estate lending. Meanwhile, most current research suggests that industry fundamentals remain basically sound, notwithstanding the inevitable ebb and flow among asset categories.<\/p>\n<p>Hard on the heels of that first thought comes a second: What goes around comes around. Yes, conditions today are different from what they were a decade ago. For years, lenders and borrowers have insisted that they have been chastened by the lessons of the recession. Nevertheless, I can\u2019t help wondering whether eagerness to make the most of this moment is pushing some lenders and their customers into risky territory. So call me a little bearish.<\/p>\n<p>As the 10th anniversary of the 2008 crash arrives, I\u2019m also taking to heart the assessment of Hugh Kelly, the longtime real estate economist and CPE columnist. In March, he warned of signs pointing to a recession starting by late 2019 or early 2020. Kelly elaborates in his latest column, citing Congressional Budget Office projections that basically convey the message, \u201cRight now, it\u2019s as good as it will get.\u201d The benefits of last year\u2019s tax cuts won\u2019t last forever, he argues; moreover, demographic trends, structural changes to the economy and government policies will combine to dampen economic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.purpoself.com\">growth<\/a> from about 2020 to 2028.<\/p>\n<p>It is admittedly difficult to start thinking about a downturn when the real estate market continues to be in growth mode on so many fronts. Even with the help of the best forecasting tools, predicting the impact of a recession is mostly guesswork. Still, this is the time to consider how the prospects for your business will look when capital is less plentiful and opportunities for growth are scarcer. In other words, keep your sunny side up, but start thinking a little like a bear, too.<\/p>\n<p>Read the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mydigitalpublication.com\/publication\/?i=524961\">September\u00a02018<\/a> CPE Digest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Reporters and real estate professionals alike find major anniversaries a good time to take stock, and we\u2019re about to get an earful about a watershed event. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":445,"featured_media":1004226297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,21788],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004262437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-editors-notes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - 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