{"id":1004207574,"date":"2018-02-19T05:54:56","date_gmt":"2018-02-19T13:54:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004207574"},"modified":"2022-12-08T20:58:09","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T04:58:09","slug":"irr-report-sees-surprising-resilience-in-retail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/irr-report-sees-surprising-resilience-in-retail\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail Shows Surprising Resilience: IRR Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Scott Baltic, Contributing Editor <\/em><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004207583\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004207583\" data-attachment-id=\"1004207583\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/irr-report-sees-surprising-resilience-in-retail\/hugh-kelly-phd-cre\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,620\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Hugh Kelly, PhD, CRE\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Hugh Kelly, PhD, CRE&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Hugh Kelly, PhD, CRE&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg?w=800\" class=\"wp-image-1004207583 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg\" alt=\"Hugh Kelly, PhD, CRE\" width=\"300\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg?resize=300,233 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2018\/02\/Hugh-Kelly-PhD-CRE.jpg?resize=768,595 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004207583\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hugh Kelly, PhD, CRE<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The latest Annual Retail Report from Integra Realty Resources is notably upbeat about retail real estate, a sector that has, by many accounts, taken the worst drubbing of any major commercial real estate product type in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>No, it isn\u2019t as if e-commerce and all those retail store closures never happened. But it is that the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/irr-report-cautious-optimism-for-moderate-steady-growth-in-2018\/\">retail sector<\/a> is for the most part actually in reasonable balance and that overall it\u2019s no worse off nationally than a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>The report, by Hugh F. Kelly, Ph.D., notes a few key points. First, though bankruptcies in the retail sector continued through 2017, mostly driven by e-commerce model, \u201c<em>this could also be seen as an industry correction, as the U.S. is an over-retailed country.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Second, \u201c<em>The critical segmentation of the shopping center industry means that broad-brush depictions of trends must give way to a more pointillist perspective.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Third, e-commerce, on top of the \u201c<em>deconstruction of the department store model<\/em>\u201d and \u201c<em>a growing demand for experiences versus goods,<\/em>\u201d are having an effect on retail transactions.<\/p>\n<p>In all, the report concludes, the sector\u2019s moderation is likely a sign that retail developers and investors put on the brakes soon enough to avoid an out-and-out crash.<\/p>\n<h2>Getting into some specific numbers<\/h2>\n<p>Retail property trading velocity continues to decline. By dollar value, it fell 19 percent from late 2016 to late 2017, and by number of assets traded it fell 9 percent, based on data from Real Capital Analytics.<\/p>\n<p>The West Coast and Denver are anticipating 2018 retail rent increases of 3 to 4 percent, while the Midwest is being forecast to be substantially more sluggish. (Central region markets are also on average those with the highest vacancies for community and neighborhood centers).<\/p>\n<p>Select markets in other regions are looking at up to 3 percent rental rate bumps at best; these include Wilmington, Del.; Providence, R.I.; Austin, Texas; Charleston, S.C.; and Orlando, Fla., though not necessarily for all product types in each of these metros.<\/p>\n<p>Still, for all the talk of retail doom, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irr.com\/research\/?utm_source=ConnectMedia&amp;utm_medium=Email&amp;utm_campaign=Viewpoint%202018#!force-open-research-card=8745&amp;offset=0&amp;limit=24&amp;open-research-card=8745&amp;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">commercial real estate report<\/a> notes that the vast majority of U.S. metro areas are in the recovery or the expansion phase of the economic cycle, and that about two-thirds are in the expansion phase.<\/p>\n<p><em>Image courtesy of Integra Realty Resources\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite retailer bankruptcies and the onslaught of e-commerce, the retail real estate sector in most markets is in reasonably good shape, the analysis concludes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004207583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21808,21783,23891,21742,21749],"tags":[32914,36149,34748,34006],"class_list":["post-1004207574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","category-retail","tag-e-commerce","tag-hugh-kelly","tag-integra-realty-resources-inc","tag-real-capital-analytics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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