{"id":1004184812,"date":"2017-07-24T01:53:19","date_gmt":"2017-07-24T09:53:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004184812"},"modified":"2021-05-14T23:43:33","modified_gmt":"2021-05-15T07:43:33","slug":"trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Scott Baltic<\/p>\n

\"Charlie<\/a>

Charlie Hewlett<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cHow long will the expansion continue?\u201d was the central question posed, and answered perhaps as best it could be, by the Mid-Year 2017 Sentiment Survey from RCLCO, of Washington, D.C., formerly known as Robert Charles Lesser & Co.<\/p>\n

Compiled by Managing Directors Charlie Hewlett and Len Bogorad and Senior Associate Mark Simpson, the report was released in two parts, late last week and a week earlier.<\/p>\n

One key point is that two-thirds of survey respondents think the current cycle\u2019s expansionary phase is likely to last for at least another 18 months. Further, they see most product types as no closer or only a little closer to downturn conditions than six months ago.<\/p>\n

\"Len<\/a>

Len Bogorad<\/p><\/div>\n

The immediately prior survey, at year-end 2016, reflected post-election optimism that the new administration, along with GOP control of both houses of Congress, would buoy the economy through \u201ctax reform, deregulation and other business-friendly policies,\u201d<\/em> according to RCLCO.<\/p>\n

\u201cEnthusiasm for the new president and his ability to deliver on concrete policies has faded,\u201d<\/em> the survey found, but even so, respondents overall remain cautiously optimistic. And though the current cycle is seen as likely \u201cin the process of sunsetting, fundamental conditions remain strong for the near- to mid-term.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

The survey participants were a \u201chighly experienced pool of real estate professionals\u201d<\/em> nationwide, though weighted toward the coasts and the Sun Belt, and mostly C-level and other senior executives. Developers and builders comprised the plurality, followed by investors or capital allocators. <\/p>\n

As a kind of bottom line, the survey\u2019s metrics yielded a figure of 68.0 (on a 100-point scale) on RCLCO\u2019s Real Estate Market Index, versus 70.8 six months ago.<\/p>\n

Scattered clouds, little chance of downturn<\/h2>\n

Almost two-thirds of respondents think the coming downturn won\u2019t begin until 2019, while about a quarter believe it will be next year, leaving only a small minority expecting the downturn this year.<\/p>\n

The respondents perceive most product types as firmly in the early stable phase of the real estate cycle, with retail and multifamily, and perhaps hospitality, in the late stable phase. Retail also showed the most prominent change in sentiment, \u201cmost likely in part reflection short- and longer-term concerns\u201d<\/em> about the threat posed by e-commerce.<\/p>\n

Similarly, multifamily, in the opinions of those surveyed, is heading for a (somewhat delayed) downturn within the mid-term. Concerns about an apartment bubble are strongest regarding metro Washington, D.C.; the Southwest; and the Southeast (Florida excepted).<\/p>\n

On the financial side, RCLCO notes that Trump administration policies<\/a> \u201chave had little impact on capital markets for real estate.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

The amount of equity continues to exceed available opportunities, though as operating fundamentals moderate, upward pressure on asset prices is neutralized. Meanwhile, debt too is helping to brake asset price inflation, as demand for debt appears to exceed what traditional lenders are willing to extend.<\/p>\n

RCLCO concluded that though the current expansion could continue for a further 18 to 24 months, \u201cthe probability that unexpected events derail this trajectory continues to be high.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

The full report is available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almost two-thirds of respondents think the coming downturn won\u2019t begin until 2019, while about a quarter believe it will be next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004184826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21782,21808,21783,23891,21742],"tags":[36907,36908,36905,36906],"class_list":["post-1004184812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-development","category-featured","category-investment","category-national","category-latest","tag-charlie-hewlett","tag-len-bogorad","tag-rclco","tag-sentiment-survey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Almost two-thirds of respondents think the coming downturn won\u2019t begin until 2019, while about a quarter believe it will be next year.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-07-24T09:53:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-05-15T07:43:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2017\/07\/Mr.-Hewlett-800x620.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"620\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott Baltic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/\",\"name\":\"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey - 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He started writing about CRE in 1988 for a group of Chicago-based publications and in 1989 became the editor of Midwest Real Estate News. After moving on from there in 1991, Baltic continued writing occasionally about real estate, for publications like the Chicago Sun-Times, National Real Estate Investor, Urban Land, Shopping Center World and Architect\u2019s Newspaper. He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey","og_description":"Almost two-thirds of respondents think the coming downturn won\u2019t begin until 2019, while about a quarter believe it will be next year.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2017-07-24T09:53:19+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-05-15T07:43:33+00:00","og_image":[{"width":800,"height":620,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2017\/07\/Mr.-Hewlett-800x620.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Scott Baltic","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/","name":"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2017\/07\/Mr.-Hewlett-800x620.jpg","datePublished":"2017-07-24T09:53:19+00:00","dateModified":"2021-05-15T07:43:33+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2017\/07\/Mr.-Hewlett-800x620.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2017\/07\/Mr.-Hewlett-800x620.jpg","width":800,"height":620,"caption":"Charlie Hewlett"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/trump-bump-gone-optimism-still-prevails-rclco-survey\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Trump Bump Gone, Optimism Still Prevails: RCLCO Survey"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555","name":"Scott Baltic","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","caption":"Scott Baltic"},"description":"Scott Baltic has been a contributing editor with Commercial Property Executive since 2011 and also wrote for its predecessor, Commercial Property News. 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