{"id":1004145314,"date":"2016-06-02T06:10:28","date_gmt":"2016-06-02T14:10:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004145314"},"modified":"2022-12-06T20:41:33","modified_gmt":"2022-12-07T04:41:33","slug":"1004145314","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/1004145314\/","title":{"rendered":"Spring Voices"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Paul Rosta<\/p>\n

\"Paul<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s been the noisiest spring in memory, thanks to the current political scene, so lately I\u2019ve been turning down the volume and listening to the quieter voices of those who are sizing up what\u2019s next for commercial real estate. A sampling of those voices, including some of those in our June 2016 digital issue<\/a>, indicates a more cautious mood than existed a few quarters ago, yet as is usually the case, the story is more complex.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s early jitters about volatility in the economy and capital markets have raised the level of caution in the industry. When DLA Piper polled its clients in 2014, 89 percent of respondents called themselves bullish about the U.S. commercial real estate market. Only 62 percent of the law firm\u2019s clients did so in the survey released at the beginning of May<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The decline is striking but should be kept in perspective, as Jay Epstien, global co-chair of DLA Piper\u2019s real estate practice, pointed out. \u201cIt\u2019s still a pretty good number of people optimistic about what\u2019s going on out there. That\u2019s an important takeaway,\u201d Epstien told CPE<\/a> Contributing Editor Barbra Murray.<\/p>\n

I was also struck by the subdued tone of the Urban Land Institute\u2019s recent Real Estate Consensus Forecast<\/a>. Real estate economists estimate that transaction volume will dip from $534 billion in 2015 to $475 billion in 2018. Moreover, they expect price growth to slow from 5 percent in 2016 to 3 percent in 2018.<\/p>\n

Lately we\u2019ve also been hearing revealing insights about strategy in this uncertain time. As Associate Editor Samantha Goldberg reported, several CEOs at ULI\u2019s Spring Meeting in Philadelphia<\/a> displayed both prudence and a touch of optimism. Brandywine Realty Trust is an active seller, having disposed of some $1.2 billion worth of assets in the past 12 months or so. \u201cI think most of the markets that were going to move have moved; most of the rental rate increases will be the same; growth is decelerating,\u201d the REIT\u2019s president & CEO, Gerard Sweeney, told his audience.<\/p>\n

Brandywine\u2019s outlook is not entirely downbeat, however. Proceeds from those sales are enabling the company to fund an $800 million development pipeline while avoiding burdensome debt. \u201cWe have positioned ourselves so that if there\u2019s a downturn coming, we\u2019ve got all our sales or repositioning done. If it\u2019s a false beep and things rebound, we\u2019re in great shape,\u201d Sweeney explained.<\/p>\n

As the second half of the year approaches, these industry veterans sound realistic without crossing into pessimism. While it\u2019s impossible to foretell what the rest of 2016 holds, the prudence conveyed by these voices is enough to make you feel, well, a bit optimistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Words of caution, yet not necessarily pessimism, as 2016’s midpoint nears.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":445,"featured_media":1004134895,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1521,21788,23891],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004145314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-digital","category-editors-notes","category-national"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSpring Voices - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/1004145314\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Spring Voices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Words of caution, yet not necessarily pessimism, as 2016's midpoint nears.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/1004145314\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-02T14:10:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-07T04:41:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2016\/01\/paul-e1460486842891.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"589\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Paul Rosta\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Paul Rosta\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ed97e8245f278ce01a7b951f706152af\"},\"headline\":\"Spring Voices\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-02T14:10:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-07T04:41:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":447,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/46\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/paul-e1460486842891.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Digital Edition\",\"Editor's Note\",\"National\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/1004145314\\\/\",\"name\":\"Spring Voices - 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