{"id":1004131663,"date":"2015-11-16T09:20:40","date_gmt":"2015-11-16T17:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004131663"},"modified":"2022-12-09T02:24:16","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T10:24:16","slug":"chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Chicago’s Record-Setting Office Sales Good \u2014 or Bad?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Scott Baltic, Contributing Editor<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Bruce<\/a>

Bruce Miller, JLL<\/p><\/div>\n

In the announcement touting its involvement with the $320.5 million sale of the high-profile office tower at 333 W. Wacker Drive<\/a> in Chicago\u2019s West Loop, JLL also noted a larger milestone. With the better part of two months to go in 2015, year-to-date sales of downtown Chicago office buildings have, according to JLL, hit a record $6.4 billion, obliterating the previous record of $5.3 billion set in 2006.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year\u2019s astonishing 26 CBD office tower sales and their record value speak to Chicago\u2019s place on the world stage as a city on the rise,\u201d JLL international director Bruce Miller said in a prepared statement. \u201cInvestor appetite continues to grow thanks to the city\u2019s diversified economy, talented workforce, transportation infrastructure and surging tech ecosystem. Combined with a shrinking competitive office supply, this creates significant landlord leverage.\u201d<\/p>\n

Does the record-setting volume of office sales in the nation\u2019s third-largest city in any way suggest a bubble?<\/p>\n

Decidedly no, JLL senior vice president Nooshin Felsenthal told Commercial Property Executive<\/em>: \u201cMy opinion is that we are absolutely not in a commercial real estate bubble. Market fundamentals such as absorption and rent growth support the level of investment activity, as well as the pricing being achieved.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Nooshin<\/a>

Nooshin Felsenthal, JLL<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cOver the last several months,\u201d she added, \u201cwe\u2019ve seen an incredible amount of headquarters relocations to\u00a0downtown Chicago, as well as new office openings from household-name employers. The\u2026quality and depth of the labor pool in Chicago are second to none and are primary drivers for why these companies are choosing Chicago.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another long-time observer of Chicago-area CRE does have some doubts, however. Gary K. DeClark, MAI, a senior VP with CBRE\u2019s Valuations and Advisory Services, notes that \u201cas long as developers have cash or can get cash, where there is money chasing deals, where I believe we are now, and cheap financing is still available, albeit tougher to secure due to regulation, developers will develop.\u201d<\/p>\n

He recounts a recent conversation with a broker friend, in which they discussed where they saw the market going. The broker, DeClark said, \u201cmade an interesting comment. He said that he again is seeing \u2018pricing to perfection\u2019 in the market. He saw that in previous downturns.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cPricing to perfection,\u201d DeClark explains, \u201cmeans that prices are being paid for property where there is no wiggle room for market happenings, some unseen, for example, burps in the national economy, continued world unrest or increased interest rates.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cBumps of 25 to 75 basis points will not have much of an impact,\u201d he said, \u201cbut what about 150? We agreed that there still were deals to be had in certain segments of the markets, maybe more niche plays. We both left the discussion with the notion that some caution should be exercised by the players in the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Gary,<\/a>

Gary, DeClark CBRE<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cHow healthy is the economy?\u201d DeClark muses. \u201cMany of the pundits say we are OK. Maybe OK for now, but I wonder how healthy the economy really is if Walmart is cutting back by laying some people off and thinking about closing some stores. That tells me the little guy is not doing all that well.\u201d<\/p>\n

A heavily analytical, and geographically broader, take on the question comes from Jim Costello, senior VP\u00a0at \u2028Real Capital Analytics. \u201cPeople look at the headline figures and think that because we are at levels at or above (or below for cap rates) levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis, ipso facto, we are in a bubble and due for a price correction,\u201d he told CPE<\/em>. \u201cI think this view is wrong. I would argue that a bubble is a function of poorly formed expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe important question to ask,\u201d Costello said, \u201cis \u2018How does the market get to the current price and volume levels?\u2019 In the previous boom, investors had some pretty inflated expectations on future income growth. They were using these expectations to justify the high prices they were paying.\u201d<\/p>\n

These expectations could be seen, he explained, in the spread between the rates on the mortgages that investors were getting at the time versus the cap rates for the properties: \u201cThere was negative leverage in many deals in 2006-2007 versus positive leverage today. The question today is this: Are buyers going in with the same income growth expectations as in 2006\u201307?\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Jim<\/a>

Jim Costello,Real Capital Analytics<\/p><\/div>\n

Costello recalls looking for office space in Boston in 2007 and being told that for a 2008 move-in, he should expect to pay more than $100 a square foot for space at One Post Office Square. In brief, he said, \u201cThe market never got that high,\u201d though the building\u2019s then most recent last buyer had indeed expected rents to get there.<\/p>\n

An analysis of the spreads between cap rates and mortgage rates for all commercial property (except multi-family, where the GSEs complicate matters) is illuminating, Costello said. In 2006\u201307, the average spread nationwide was 108 bps, which he contends can be misleading, as many purchases with negative leverage were driving that average down. Over the last four quarters, however, the cap rate\u2013mortgage rate spread has averaged 232 bps.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf buyers were going in with vastly over-inflated expectations on income growth in the future,\u201d Costello concluded, \u201cI expect you would see cap rates at even lower levels\u2026. [O]n average there is a lot more spread in place today versus the previous boom, suggesting more moderate expectations today.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Does the record-setting volume of office sales in the nation\u2019s third-largest city in any way suggest a bubble? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1320,"featured_media":1004131675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1491,21781,21825,13,21742,21747],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004131663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chicago","category-corporate-real-estate","category-finance","category-midwest","category-latest","category-office"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAre Chicago's Record-Setting Office Sales Good \u2014 or Bad? - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are Chicago's Record-Setting Office Sales Good \u2014 or Bad?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Does the record-setting volume of office sales in the nation\u2019s third-largest city in any way suggest a bubble?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-11-16T17:20:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-09T10:24:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Felsenthal1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"856\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"894\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"alopez\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"alopez\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/3c24268b2d76f66d0839c549a6582923\"},\"headline\":\"Are Chicago’s Record-Setting Office Sales Good \u2014 or Bad?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-11-16T17:20:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-09T10:24:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":933,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/46\\\/2015\\\/11\\\/Felsenthal1.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Chicago\",\"Corporate Real Estate\",\"Finance\",\"Midwest\",\"News\",\"Office\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.commercialsearch.com\\\/news\\\/chicago-office-sales-set-record-but-is-that-a-good-thing\\\/\",\"name\":\"Are Chicago's Record-Setting Office Sales Good \u2014 or Bad? 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