{"id":1004131629,"date":"2015-11-18T07:37:58","date_gmt":"2015-11-18T15:37:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004131629"},"modified":"2021-05-15T08:32:18","modified_gmt":"2021-05-15T16:32:18","slug":"reit-column-will-property-prices-bull-or-bear-in-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reit-column-will-property-prices-bull-or-bear-in-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"REIT Column: Will Property Prices Bull or Bear in 2016?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Andy McCulloch, Managing Director, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenstreetadvisors.com\/about\/page\/rea\/#!\/macro\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Real Estate Analytics<\/a>, Green Street Advisors<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004131818\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reit-column-will-property-prices-bull-or-bear-in-2016\/andrew-mcculloch-green-street\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"600,652\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Wallis Photo LLC&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;wallisphoto.com&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Andrew McCulloch-Green Street\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg?w=600\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-1004131818 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg\" alt=\"Andrew McCulloch\" width=\"276\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/Andrew-McCulloch-Green-Street.jpg?resize=276,300 276w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 276px) 100vw, 276px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Optimism regarding commercial property values has been entirely warranted over the past six years. Amid a backdrop of solid fundamentals, minimal supply concerns, very low interest rates and a flood of capital into U.S. property markets, values have doubled since the recovery commenced in 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Green Street\u2019s Commercial Property Price Forecast, which combines signals from the corporate bond market with signals from the REIT market, had been sending off very bullish signs for real estate over this entire time frame \u2014 until recently. Over the past several months, Green Street\u2019s forecast has turned decidedly bearish, as REIT share prices have taken a turn for the worse and corporate bond yields have gapped out.<\/p>\n<p>Green Street\u2019s forecast, which is based on the firm\u2019s proprietary time series of unlevered return expectations and REIT NAV premiums\/discounts, has been very reliable in predicting changes in commercial real estate pricing. The tool is not precise enough to put much weight on the forecast magnitude of pending price moves, but it does help provide a sense of the directional changes that lie ahead.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Green Street CRE Forecast Track Record<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004131649\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reit-column-will-property-prices-bull-or-bear-in-2016\/cre-forecast-track-record-chart-1\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,442\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CRE Forecast Track Record Chart 1\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg?w=800\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1004131649 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg\" alt=\"CRE Forecast Track Record Chart 1\" width=\"300\" height=\"166\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg?resize=300,166 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-1.jpg?resize=768,424 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004131656\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reit-column-will-property-prices-bull-or-bear-in-2016\/cre-forecast-track-record-chart-2-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,366\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CRE Forecast Track Record Chart 2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg?w=800\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\" size-medium wp-image-1004131656 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg\" alt=\"CRE Forecast Track Record Chart 2\" width=\"300\" height=\"137\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg?resize=300,137 300w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/11\/CRE-Forecast-Track-Record-Chart-21.jpg?resize=768,351 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>*Past performance cannot be used to predict future results. View our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenstreetadvisors.com\/about\/page\/trackrecord\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">full track record and disclosures.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The shift from a \u201creal estate is cheap\u201d to a \u201creal estate is expensive\u201d environment has been abrupt. The cyclical nature of property prices means that they seldom settle near fair value but instead tend to overshoot in both directions. The process of overshooting on the high side is now clearly underway. Will valuations correct in the next few months? Don\u2019t bet on it. History says there is a good chance they will be lower in a year, but the historic record is also full of alarms that went off too early.<\/p>\n<p>Precise predictions are for fools, but it increasingly looks like a reasonable base-case forecast for commercial property prices in 2016 is a modest (less than 5 percent) decline, bounded by a good case that might consist of a similar-size uptick and a bear case that would entail a worse result. Each of the three scenarios probably has a roughly equal chance of panning out. That two of the three scenarios entail a directional move downward should come as no great surprise on the heels of an incredibly bull market in property, but it is nevertheless hard to overstate the extent to which this view is out of sync with today\u2019s conventional wisdom.<\/p>\n<p><em>For more information about Green Street Advisors and our Real Estate Analytics product offering, please visit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenstreetadvisors.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">www.greenstreetadvisors.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Andy McCulloch, Managing Director, Real Estate Analytics, Green Street Advisors: Green Street Advisors&#8217; outlook for REIT and commercial property prices in 2016.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":948,"featured_media":1004131818,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21684],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004131629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-viewpoint"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>REIT Column: Will Property Prices Bull or Bear in 2016? 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