{"id":1004128499,"date":"2015-10-01T06:48:58","date_gmt":"2015-10-01T14:48:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004128499"},"modified":"2022-12-09T01:29:51","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T09:29:51","slug":"is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/","title":{"rendered":"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Scott Baltic, Contributing Editor<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The latest three-year economic forecast from the Urban Land Institute\u2019s Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, released Wednesday, calls for the CRE market to \u201ccontinue expanding at healthy and fairly steady levels for 2015 through 2017.\u201d And in a lively accompanying webinar on Wednesday morning, three industry experts fleshed out some of the areas explored by the forecast.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004128503\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004128503\" data-attachment-id=\"1004128503\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/menifee\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"694,600\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;5.6&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;NIKON D300S&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1400067730&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;112&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.008&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Menifee\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Lee Menifee, Prudential&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg?w=694\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1004128503\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg\" alt=\"Lee Menifee, Prudential\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004128503\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Lee Menifee, Prudential<\/p><\/div>\n<p>This latest semi-annual ULI Real Estate Consensus Forecast, the eighth, was based on a survey of 49 of the industry\u2019s top economists and analysts, representing 36 of the nation\u2019s leading real estate investment, advisory, and research firms and organizations.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.uli.org\/\">ULI<\/a> described this forecast as \u201cslightly less bullish\u201d than its spring 2015 predecessor, but noted that it nonetheless predicts three more years of favorable real estate conditions. With a few exceptions, real estate indicators are expected to be better than their 20-year averages this year. The exceptions are commercial property price growth, equity REIT returns, NCREIF returns for the four major property types and retail availability rates.<\/p>\n<p>The Consensus Forecast<\/p>\n<p>Among the forecast\u2019s key findings:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>CRE transaction volume is expected to increase for a further two years and then level off around $500 billion by 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Commercial real estate prices are projected to rise by 10.0 percent in 2015 and then slow to a 6.0 percent increase in 2016 and 4.5 percent growth in 2017, below the long-term average growth rate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Institutional real estate assets are expected to provide total returns of 11.7 percent this year, moderating to 9.0 percent in 2016 and 7.0 percent in 2017. Returns are expected to be strongest for industrial and retail, followed by office and multifamily, over that period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Vacancy rates are projected to continue to decrease modestly for office and retail over the next three years. Industrial availability rates and hotel occupancy rate are forecast to improve somewhat in 2015 and then level off in 2016 and 2017. Apartment vacancy rates are also expected to decline slightly in 2015, but then rise slightly in 2016 and 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Commercial property rents are expected to increase for the four major property types in 2015, ranging from 2.0 percent for retail up to 4.6 percent for apartments and 4.9 percent for industrial. Hotel RevPAR is expected to increase by 7.9 percent in 2015 and 4.2 percent in 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>In the capital markets, CRE transaction volume is expected to remain stable at around $500 billion per year. CMBS issuance is expected to continue to grow steadily through 2017, with projected increases to $110 billion in 2015, $130 billion in 2016 and $140 billion in 2017.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A wide-ranging webinar<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004128507\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/McCullough.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004128507\" data-attachment-id=\"1004128507\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/mccullough\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/McCullough.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,597\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Wallis Photo LLC&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;wallisphoto.com&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"McCullough\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Andrew McCulloch, Green Street&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/McCullough.jpg?w=800\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1004128507\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/McCullough.jpg\" alt=\"Andrew McCulloch, Green Street\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004128507\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Andrew McCulloch, Green Street<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Moderated by Anita Kramer, senior vice president at the ULI Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate, and Lee Menifee, managing director and head of Americas Research at Prudential Real Estate Investors, the webinar featured a panel of three CRE experts: Margaret Harbaugh, vice president at Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing; Steven Laposa, principal, Global Real Estate Knowledge Center, Alvarez &amp; Marsal; and Andy McCulloch, managing director, Real Estate Research &amp; Analytics, Green Street Advisors.<\/p>\n<p>Asked about the outlook for various CRE property types, the panelists focused mostly on the hot multifamily sector.<\/p>\n<p>Multifamily has defied expectations for two to three years so far, Harbaugh said, but added that she expects ongoing strength there. Apartment living is attractive to both Boomers and Millennials, neither of which generations typically has many kids, she said, adding that the homeownership rate has declined to a level last seen in 1967.<\/p>\n<p>McCulloch, too, is still bullish on multifamily, commenting \u201cWe\u2019re just creating a lot more households than housing units.\u201d He also likes that the sector is uncluttered by extraneous factors like Airbnb (in hospitality) and e-commerce (in retail).<\/p>\n<p>Laposa cautioned that Alvarez &amp; Marsal has been approached by private equity interests regarding possible vulture funds scouting for apartments in about two years\u2019 time.<\/p>\n<p>He was guarded also about retail, where, he said, too many tenants are restructuring or going to smaller spaces.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>A question from a webinar listener turned the panel\u2019s attention to downtown versus suburban office.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s been a strong renaissance in most downtown markets, said Laposa, and if gas ever gets to $5 a gallon\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Harbaugh agreed that downtown office markets are stronger (with the possible exception of walkable, transit-oriented suburban office developments) and provided some historical context. Since 2000, there\u2019s been structurally higher demand for CBD office space, she said, such that vacancy rates for the two categories have diverged more widely since then.<\/p>\n<p>On the retail side, the panelists agreed that it\u2019s hard to generalize. \u201cThere\u2019s a lot of different parts to retail,\u201d McCulloch said. \u201cIn retail, it\u2019s very nuanced.\u201d He\u2019s bullish on Class A regional malls, but not so much on Class B, and believes that strip retail is generally improving.<\/p>\n<p>Harbaugh agrees regarding that quality divergence and in addition likes high-street retail in major cities and grocery-anchored centers. She noted that the relative dearth of first-time homebuyers (and second-time buyers moving up) seems to be one of the factors holding retail back.<\/p>\n<p>Laposa said he has worked with e-retailers that want to establish a bricks-and-mortar presence and commented that their location decisions are driven by <em>very<\/em> detailed customer information.<\/p>\n<p>Menifee\u2019s next question related to any warning signs of the next bubble.<\/p>\n<p>Laposa expressed some concern about multifamily, though not on a nationwide basis. On the retail side, he mused, are there too many banks? Too many urgent-care centers?<\/p>\n<p>CRE investors need to underwrite the possibility of a tech hiccup or shakeout, potential issues around the Fed and\/or the next presidential administration, and concerns about China, and possibly Europe, said Harbaugh.<\/p>\n<p>In the corporate bond market, \u201cyields have gapped out pretty materially,\u201d with some issuances being pulled, McCulloch said, and there are some negative signs from the REIT market. \u201cThe signals we\u2019re getting today are pretty bearish.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For his final question, Menifee asked, \u201cWhere do you put your money today?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Manufactured housing communities, which are being driven by good demographics, was McCulloch\u2019s answer.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOffice!\u201d said Harbaugh, while Laposa, despite his misgivings, voted for multifamily, saying, \u201cWe all need a place to live.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The exchange brought a closing laugh from Menifee, who commented: \u201cWe have a consensus forecast and no consensus among our panelists!\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Urban Land Institute surveyed 49 top analysts in its latest forecast, while three CRE panelists sounded off on the subject in a webinar yesterday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004128503,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21783,21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004128499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.4 (Yoast SEO v24.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright? - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Urban Land Institute surveyed 49 top analysts in its latest forecast, while three CRE panelists sounded off on the subject in a webinar yesterday.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-10-01T14:48:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-09T09:29:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"694\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Scott Baltic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/\",\"name\":\"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright? 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He started writing about CRE in 1988 for a group of Chicago-based publications and in 1989 became the editor of Midwest Real Estate News. After moving on from there in 1991, Baltic continued writing occasionally about real estate, for publications like the Chicago Sun-Times, National Real Estate Investor, Urban Land, Shopping Center World and Architect\u2019s Newspaper. He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright? - Commercial Property Executive","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright?","og_description":"The Urban Land Institute surveyed 49 top analysts in its latest forecast, while three CRE panelists sounded off on the subject in a webinar yesterday.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/","og_site_name":"Commercial Property Executive","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive","article_published_time":"2015-10-01T14:48:58+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-12-09T09:29:51+00:00","og_image":[{"width":694,"height":600,"url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Scott Baltic","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@cpexecutive","twitter_site":"@cpexecutive","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/","name":"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright? - Commercial Property Executive","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg","datePublished":"2015-10-01T14:48:58+00:00","dateModified":"2022-12-09T09:29:51+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg","width":694,"height":600,"caption":"Lee Menifee, Prudential"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/is-the-cre-future-bright-according-to-economists\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Hey Economists\u2014Is the CRE Future Bright?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/","name":"Commercial Property Executive","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/61ac1450f3ffaa0e850b834c28526555","name":"Scott Baltic","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2022\/06\/Scott.jpg?w=96","caption":"Scott Baltic"},"description":"Scott Baltic has been a contributing editor with Commercial Property Executive since 2011 and also wrote for its predecessor, Commercial Property News. He started writing about CRE in 1988 for a group of Chicago-based publications and in 1989 became the editor of Midwest Real Estate News. After moving on from there in 1991, Baltic continued writing occasionally about real estate, for publications like the Chicago Sun-Times, National Real Estate Investor, Urban Land, Shopping Center World and Architect\u2019s Newspaper. He earned a master\u2019s in journalism from Northwestern University\u2019s Medill School of Journalism and has a bachelor\u2019s from North Park University.","url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/author\/scott-baltic\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2015\/10\/Menifee.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004128499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/882"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1004128499"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004128499\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1004612914,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1004128499\/revisions\/1004612914"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004128503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1004128499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1004128499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1004128499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}