{"id":1004103729,"date":"2014-09-15T06:29:26","date_gmt":"2014-09-15T14:29:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004103729"},"modified":"2022-12-07T21:16:45","modified_gmt":"2022-12-08T05:16:45","slug":"prea-survey-shows-commercial-real-estate-growth-expected-to-slow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/prea-survey-shows-commercial-real-estate-growth-expected-to-slow\/","title":{"rendered":"PREA Survey Shows Commercial Real Estate Growth Expected to Slow"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Greg<\/a>

Greg MacKinnon<\/p><\/div>\n

By Keith Loria, Contributing Editor<\/p>\n

The Pension Real Estate Association’s newly released results of its latest Consensus Forecast Survey of the U.S. commercial real estate market showed a positive outlook for 2014, although things are expected to slow down in the ensuing years.<\/p>\n

According to the report, forecasts for increasing\u00a0full-year 2014 returns are due to the market continuing to surprise to the upside,\u00a0with the first half of 2014 having again seen strong returns on commercial real estate overall.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe general theme seen in the results is that\u00a0while 2014 is shaping up to be another strong year for commercial estate, the average forecaster sees returns slowing going forward,\u201d Greg\u00a0MacKinnon, PREA\u2019s director\u00a0of\u00a0research, told Commercial Property Executive<\/i>. \u201cNot a reversal in the market,\u00a0certainly,\u00a0but a slowdown, with 2015 returns expected to be lower than this year and 2016 lower again.\u00a0Over 2015-16, the returns are still predicted to be good,\u00a0but not as strong as we have seen over the last couple of years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the survey shows that the outlook for 2015 has been getting more bullish in the last two quarters,\u00a0which is likely due to an increased acceptance that the U.S. economy is finally gaining momentum,\u00a0combined with a reduction in the fear that the market could be derailed by interest rate increases.<\/p>\n

According to the average forecast, it looks as if the next year is going to see good returns,\u00a0although perhaps not as strong as they have been over the last couple of years.<\/p>\n

\u201cStill,\u00a0a forecast return of 8.6 percent\u00a0overall for 2015 would be considered quite attractive, given the low interest-rate environment\u00a0in which we continue to find ourselves,\u201d MacKinnon said.\u00a0\u201cOf course,\u00a0there is risk involved and no guarantee that things will develop as expected,\u00a0as well as disagreement across the various forecasters about the future path of the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

A major change in the direction of the economy or a sudden spike in interest rates could obviously change things, he said, but at this point the balance of probabilities appears to indicate that commercial real estate\u00a0returns will continue to be attractive going forward,\u00a0even if at a somewhat reduced level.<\/p>\n

Although MacKinnon said none of the results were very surprising, he did find it interesting that multi-family,\u00a0which had been a great story over the past few years,\u00a0is predicted to lag the other property types substantially.\u00a0\u201cOn that other hand,\u00a0industrial is expected to be the top returning sector in both 2015 and 2016,\u00a0as well as over a five-year horizon,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Twenty-two firms participated in the survey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Pension Real Estate Association’s newly released results of its latest Consensus Forecast Survey of the U.S. commercial real estate market showed a positive outlook for 2014, although things are expected to slow down in the ensuing years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":755,"featured_media":1004103732,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004103729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPREA Survey Shows Commercial Real Estate Growth Expected to Slow - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/prea-survey-shows-commercial-real-estate-growth-expected-to-slow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PREA Survey Shows Commercial Real Estate Growth Expected to Slow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Pension Real Estate Association's newly released results of its latest Consensus Forecast Survey of the U.S. commercial real estate market showed a positive outlook for 2014, although things are expected to slow down in the ensuing years.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/prea-survey-shows-commercial-real-estate-growth-expected-to-slow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-09-15T14:29:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-08T05:16:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2014\/09\/Greg-MacKinnon.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"452\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Suzann D. 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