{"id":1004087271,"date":"2013-11-21T07:46:09","date_gmt":"2013-11-21T15:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004087271"},"modified":"2022-12-06T01:42:46","modified_gmt":"2022-12-06T09:42:46","slug":"reis-3q-briefing-gives-reason-for-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reis-3q-briefing-gives-reason-for-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"Reis 3Q Briefing Gives Reason for Optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><i>By Scott Baltic, Contributing Editor<\/i><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_1004087274\" style=\"width: 160px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2013\/11\/Ryan-Severino.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1004087274\" data-attachment-id=\"1004087274\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/reis-3q-briefing-gives-reason-for-optimism\/ryan-severino\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2013\/11\/Ryan-Severino.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"235,264\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Ryan Severino\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Ryan Severino, of Reis&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2013\/11\/Ryan-Severino.jpg?w=235\" class=\"size-thumbnail wp-image-1004087274\" alt=\"Ryan Severino, of Reis\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2013\/11\/Ryan-Severino.jpg\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1004087274\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Ryan Severino, of Reis<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u201cAll indicators are pointing toward another year of recovery\u201d was the optimistic bottom line of Wednesday\u2019s Q3 2013 Capital Markets Briefing from Reis Inc. Hosted by Reis senior economist Ryan Severino, the conference call promised to tackle angles such as economic growth and the capital markets, interest rates and cap rates, and the GSE pullback.<\/p>\n<p>Though he cautioned that the data are still preliminary, Severino said that GDP growth at an annualized 2.8 percent in the third quarter is better than what had been expected by many and added that job creation figures look good: \u201cWe are now ahead of last year\u2019s pace of job creation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He does, however, expect a slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter, in part because of lingering effects from the government shutdown.<\/p>\n<p>In the office sector, Severino said, \u201cdemand continues to slightly outpace new construction.\u201d He noted, though, that improvement in the office sector has been largely concentrated in a limited number of markets, such as metro areas with strong high-tech industries.<\/p>\n<p>In the multi-family sector, \u201cthe market has hit a floor, at least temporarily,\u201d he said, and any future cap rate compression will be \u201cfar more gradual.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>As for retail, Severino said, there\u2019s \u201cmore evidence that retail cap rates have hit a floor.\u201d This product type, he said, is the one \u201carguably with the weakest recovery,\u201d not least because \u201cconsumer spending remains depressed.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>An examination of 12-month rolling cap rates found that, like last quarter, \u201cwe\u2019re getting complicated results,\u201d he said, with a few markets represented in the top 10 for one product type and the bottom 10 for another. (Detroit, for example, is in the top 10 in retail (3.7 percent) and in the bottom 10 (11.1 percent) in multi-family.)<\/p>\n<p>These anomalies, Severino explained, are probably caused by a \u201cshallow transaction environment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The briefing highlighted a string of positive signs for the economy and the CRE sector.<\/p>\n<p>* The Mortgage Bankers Association\u2019s Originations Index has approximately tripled since the lows of 2009, from roughly 50 to about 150 (100 = the 2001 quarterly average).<\/p>\n<p>* A year-over-year decline in outstanding balances on GSE loans obviously reflects those entities\u2019 mandate to cut their originations, but Severino also suggested that the GSEs would in any case be getting more competition in the current multi-family lending market.<\/p>\n<p>* The CMBS recovery remains intact, with originations on track to total $80 billion this year, \u201cwell ahead of predictions,\u201d according to Severino.<\/p>\n<p>* A Federal Reserve survey of bank senior loan officers found a higher percentage reporting stronger loan demand than at any time in the past 13 years.<\/p>\n<p>* The overall commercial mortgage delinquency rate, now at 2.7 percent, has fallen 300 basis points in three years. Or, as Severino put it, \u201cIt\u2019s coming down about as fast as it went up\u201d from 2008 to about 2010.<\/p>\n<p>One intriguing question toward the end of the conference call was whether cheap capital is artificially inflating CRE prices. Severino answered that two quarters ago he might have said yes, but that the improved economy has allayed some of those concerns.<\/p>\n<p>The economy is probably more resilient than many thought, Severino said, and though the credit market will remain \u201cchoppy in the short term,\u201d if the capital markets behave well, \u201cWe could be on the verge of a real recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cAll indicators are pointing toward another year of recovery\u201d was the optimistic bottom line of Wednesday\u2019s Q3 2013 Capital Markets Briefing from Reis Inc., hosted by Reis senior economist Ryan Severino.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":882,"featured_media":1004087274,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21742],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004087271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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