{"id":1004054054,"date":"2012-12-05T13:42:38","date_gmt":"2012-12-05T21:42:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004054054"},"modified":"2020-05-11T02:20:02","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T10:20:02","slug":"retail-reits-stabilizing-fundamentals-support-stable-credit-outlook-for-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retail-reits-stabilizing-fundamentals-support-stable-credit-outlook-for-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail REITs \u2013 Stabilizing Fundamentals Support Stable Credit Outlook for Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Merrie S. Frankel, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Vice President &amp; Senior Credit Officer<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/Merrie-Frankel-pic1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004054059\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retail-reits-stabilizing-fundamentals-support-stable-credit-outlook-for-sector\/merrie-frankel-pic-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/Merrie-Frankel-pic1-e1449088752958.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"800,896\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Merrie Frankel pic\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/Merrie-Frankel-pic1-e1449088752958.jpg?w=800\" class=\"alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-1004054059\" title=\"Merrie Frankel pic\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/Merrie-Frankel-pic1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Real estate fundamentals for retail properties have stabilized further over the past several quarters. Occupancy, leasing spreads and renewals, have all improved, which also bodes well for the credit ratings of retail REITs. We do not expect the investment-grade retail REITs to see material changes to their current ratings or rating outlooks over the next year. Moody\u2019s has a stable outlook on nine of its 17 rated retail REITs, a positive outlook on six, one negative outlook and one on review for upgrade.<\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s retail group maintains a stable outlook on the U.S. retailers. We expect growth in U.S. retail sales growth to soften in the first half of 2013 because of consumer uncertainty surrounding the U.S. fiscal cliff and potential tax increases, but sales will strengthen in second quarter of 2013 because of pent-up demand.  However, Moody\u2019s expects 2012 holiday sales will overcome the fiscal cliff and rise about 4 percent (compared with 6.5 percent growth in November-December 2011). This compares favorably with ICSC\u2019s forecast of a 4.2 percent increase for 2012 holiday sales. The success of Black Friday and Cyber Monday suggest the generally favorable holiday trend.<a title=\"\" href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/AnnaS\/Desktop\/CAPITAL%20MARKETS\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.docx#_ftn1\">[1]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Consumers will continue to focus on value, which should benefit discounters and dollar stores. There is a significant bifurcation in performance among retailers. Retailers operating at both ends of the value spectrum \u2013 luxury merchants on the one side and dollar stores, auto-part retailers, drugstores, discounters and warehouse clubs on the other side\u2013are outperforming other segments such as apparel and supermarkets.<\/p>\n<p>Retail REITs tend to have properties that are above average in quality. Many have long-term leases with solid occupancies that support relatively stable cash flows. \u201cB\u201d and \u201cC\u201d properties, in secondary and tertiary locations with weaker tenants, continue to feel the effects of the weakening economy more acutely than do their \u201cA\u201d counterparts. National retailers, however, are showing increased interest in leasing the \u201cB\u201d space and private investors have low-cost debt capital available to purchase these noncore properties.<\/p>\n<p>Although recent re-leasing spreads have been trending positive, they may be poised to turn negative. Leases signed at the market peak in 2004-07 may incur roll-downs when retailers sign renewals. Some small businesses such as the mom-and-pop stores are still feeling pressures due to low sales, which impacts inline store leasing and the ability to increase rents. One positive for leasing is that fresh retail concepts continue to spur new store openings as national retailers exploit the opportunity to capture attractive stores in quality locations that failed retailers previously occupied. Also helpful is the dearth of new retail development, allowing landlords to lease presently vacant space and regain pricing power. In addition, malls are reinventing themselves by becoming multidimensional purveyors of not only apparel and cosmetics, but also services such as hair salons, crafts, and yoga.<\/p>\n<p>E-commerce sales comprised 5.2 percent of total retail sales during third quarter and increased 17.3 percent from the third quarter of 2011, while total retail sales increased 4.6 percent during the same period. The prevailing notion is that bricks-and-mortar space and e-commerce are both fundamental elements of a successful retail strategy, which is spurring some retailers to downsize store sizes.<a title=\"\" href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Users\/AnnaS\/Desktop\/CAPITAL%20MARKETS\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.docx#_ftn2\">[2]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Outlet centers performed well throughout the recession, prompting an increased number of REITs such as Taubman, Macerich, and CBL to explore this sub-sector. Both Simon (with Calloway REIT) and Tanger (with RioCan REIT) have entered joint ventures to build outlets in Canada. Although the US-style outlet center has not existed in Canada to date, Canadians frequently cross the border to shop in the US outlets.<\/p>\n<p>Some overseas investment has occurred &#8212; such as Simon\u2019s investment in Kl\u00e9pierre and continued expansion of its Asian outlets, as well as Kimco\u2019s investment in Mexico and DDR\u2019s in Brazil. Still, the vast majority of retail REITs\u2019 portfolios remain in the US.<\/p>\n<p>Most retail REITs are managing their balance sheets conservatively. Retail REITs rated by Moody\u2019s have maintained stable leverage metrics due to robust equity issuances, cost containment and astute balance sheet management. For Moody\u2019s rated retail REITs, average secured debt\/gross assets (23.6% at 3Q12) and debt\/EBITDA (7.1x at 3Q12) have declined for the past three years, and fixed charge coverage has increased to 2.5x at 3Q12 because of improved earnings and decreased interest expense. (See graph below).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004054064\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retail-reits-stabilizing-fundamentals-support-stable-credit-outlook-for-sector\/reits_frankel_12_4\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"432,300\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;Michelle Matteson&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;REITS_Frankel_12_4&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"REITS_Frankel_12_4\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg?w=432\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1004054064\" title=\"REITS_Frankel_12_4\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"432\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg 432w, https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/12\/REITS_Frankel_12_4.jpg?resize=300,208 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 432px) 100vw, 432px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<p>[1] Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Industry Outlook, US Retail: US Consumers Remain Cautious, Limiting Earnings Growth in 2013, Nov 2, 2012; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icsc.org\">www.icsc.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>[1] U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 3<sup>rd<\/sup> Quarter 2012, Nov. 16, 2012.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong> <strong>Like us on facebook:<\/strong><a title=\"Commercial Property Executive\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Commercial-Property-Executive\/258033884191\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Commercial-Property-Executive\/258033884191<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Merrie S. Frankel, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Vice President &#038; Senior Credit Officer: Real estate fundamentals for retail properties have stabilized further over the past several quarters. Occupancy, leasing spreads and renewals, have all improved, which also bodes well for the credit ratings of retail REITs. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1269,"featured_media":1004505630,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37301],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004054054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Retail REITs \u2013 Stabilizing Fundamentals Support Stable Credit Outlook for Sector - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/retail-reits-stabilizing-fundamentals-support-stable-credit-outlook-for-sector\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Retail REITs \u2013 Stabilizing Fundamentals Support Stable Credit Outlook for Sector\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Merrie S. 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Frankel, Moody\u2019s Investors Service, Vice President & Senior Credit Officer: Real estate fundamentals for retail properties have stabilized further over the past several quarters. 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