{"id":1004048134,"date":"2012-09-01T12:38:51","date_gmt":"2012-09-01T20:38:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004048134"},"modified":"2022-12-04T16:49:38","modified_gmt":"2022-12-05T00:49:38","slug":"the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment\/","title":{"rendered":"The Best and Worst Cities for Investment"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Mid-Year Update on the Top Options for Reward Over Risk\u2014and What to Avoid<\/strong><\/p>\n

By Suzann D. Silverman, Editorial Director<\/em><\/p>\n

Just when investors were feeling good again about commercial real estate, the economy took a turn for the unpredictable, and the political climate has only piled on some extra insecurity. Good investment opportunities can still be found, but the list of likely locations has changed. CPE<\/em> examines the latest research findings and offers insights into the investment strategies of some of the most active players on the current field.<\/p>\n

After warming to the capital markets for the past\u00a0couple of years, investors have been more cautious in 2012 in the face of renewed economic volatility triggered by European unrest, anticipated year-end tax policy issues and suspense over the November elections. That has resulted in something of a paradox: a slowing rate of investment accompanied by increasing sales volume. During the first half of 2012, 7,590 properties traded hands for a total of $108.8 billion, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc. That represents a 1 percent drop in the number of transactions, but a 4 percent increase in their aggregate value, compared to the same period in 2011.<\/p>\n

Assets for sale remain limited, which has increased competition for solid prospects in key markets, and that combined with economic uncertainty has led investors to further reduce their return expectations. That is likely to remain the norm for at least the near future, as returns\u2014already in the 8 to 10 percent range\u2014promise to decline even further over the next couple of years, according to Ryan Severino, senior economist for REIS Inc.<\/p>\n

But while caution is tempering the risk-reward quotient, it appears to be redirecting investment, not stalling it entirely. Indeed, those players that are active are embracing opportunity\u2014and finding it in new places.<\/p>\n

While apartments have a well-earned reputation as the darling of the recessionary marketplace, it is the office sector that has actually been topping property categories by volume for the past two-and-a-half years on the strength of large institutional deals. That changed only in the second quarter of 2012, when apartments took first place for the first time in 10 quarters, netting $17.1 billion in volume as opposed to $16.3 billion for office, noted Marisha Clinton, director of research for the capital markets at Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. The switch resulted from a combination of events: an increase in financing from the government -sponsored enterprises, the availability of distressed apartment assets and investors\u2019 sense of diminished possibilities in the office sector.<\/p>\n

Industrial properties are also gaining in popularity, as evidenced in a mid-year update to the annual \u201cEmerging Trends in Real Estate\u201d report produced by PricewaterhouseCoopers L.L.P. and the Urban Land Institute. \u201cPeople believe they\u2019re going to see more manufacturing in the United States,\u201d observed Chuck DiRocco, director of real estate research for PricewaterhouseCoopers.<\/p>\n

Development has picked up slightly, but the improvement is largely limited to apartment properties and will likely remain minimal over the next few years, according to Severino. \u201cYou won\u2019t see a glut necessarily, but you will see significantly more additions to inventory over the next couple years,\u201d he said. \u201cDemand is so strong, as (product) comes online it will be absorbed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Top Prospects<\/strong><\/p>\n

Development targets remain limited to larger markets, but that is to be expected, as investors continue to view those markets as the best places to buy assets, as well. That said, more investors are studying secondary markets\u2014and to a smaller degree tertiary markets\u2014as they find themselves priced out of top-tier cities. The office sector offers a case in point: In the first quarter of 2012, primary markets saw 59 percent of office sales, but that dropped to 53 percent in the second quarter, according to Jones Lang LaSalle statistics. And in the first half of 2012, primary markets tallied 53 percent of office transactions, down from 58 percent over the same period last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cAbout 12 months ago, we started to see a shift in momentum from the major cities to secondary cities,\u201d noted Dan Fasulo, managing director for Real Capital Analytics. \u201cThe big year-over-year gains in activity are definitely in more secondary locations.\u201d He listed among them Seattle, Miami, Charlotte, Baltimore, Austin, Nashville, Hawaii and Broward County, Fla. To that list, Severino added San Jose, San Francisco, Raleigh-Durham and Houston.<\/p>\n

Such locations feature strong bases in growth industries, most notably technology, energy, education and healthcare. These economic drivers promise further influxes of new companies and new employees, suggesting potential for increased real estate liquidity and thus greater return on investment.<\/p>\n

In the six months from year-end 2011 to mid-year 2012, Seattle, Phoenix and San Jose all entered the top 10 on Real Capital Anal-ytics\u2019 ranking of markets by sales volume (see chart at right). San Francisco rose from eighth to fourth, reflecting its continued recovery, but at the same time technology companies are bypassing its more expensive digs in favor of cheaper opportunities for creative space in downtown Seattle, noted Richard Mack, North America CEO for AREA Property Partners.<\/p>\n

Seattle, in fact, experienced a 148 percent increase in volume between the first half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, Clinton noted. San Francisco\u2019s volume also increased, but by a much smaller 8.9 percent during that time (the long-suffering city did register a significant uptick in 2011, however, with volume increasing 312 percent year-over-year in the first half). Technology-driven San Jose grew by 65.9 percent, and Phoenix\u2019s education and leisure markets helped take its commercial real estate transaction volume up by 44.8\u00a0percent. Phoenix has been experiencing both corporate and individual in-migration from California, DiRocco noted.<\/p>\n

Other fast-growing newcomers to the investment scene include Charlotte and Denver. Charlotte has seen \u201cconsistent positive growth,\u201d Clinton observed, thanks to an influx of capital driven by stability in the finance and banking sector, as well as growth in energy. While it ranked only 13th on Jones Lang LaSalle\u2019s list of top-growing cities by investment volume (at $1.9 billion) and 20th on Real Capital Analytics\u2019 list (at $1.6 billion), the pace of its growth is extraordinary: a 163 percent year-over-year jump for the first half of 2012, following a 175.5 percent increase during the same period last year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.<\/p>\n

Denver, too, is seeing something of a rebirth, thanks to the strong energy market. Investment sales grew 27 percent in the first half of the year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle data; both Jones Lang LaSalle and Real Capital Analytics ranked it 12th, with $2.3 billion in volume.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn spite of economic volatility, investors continue to favor safe havens,\u201d observed Clinton.
\nPerennial favorites like New York, Boston, Dallas, Houston and Los Angeles remain among the top picks, although their performance has not been as robust as investors have focused on less expensive markets. Prices in the six biggest markets have returned to the pre-recession levels of 2007, DiRocco noted, driven by intense competition. That can make it difficult to justify cap rates\u2014an issue that will only intensify in a few years, when inevitable interest rate increases apply upward pressure to cap rates, Severino said. \u201cThat\u2019s a pretty big risk, buying at low cap rates.\u201d
\nManhattan, in fact, saw an 11 percent decrease in volume in the first half, and Los Angeles\u2019 volume dropped by 14 percent, according to Real Capital Analytics. In Manhattan, \u201c(investors are) going to have to draw the line at some point on prices,\u201d DiRocco said, pointing out that 5 and sub-5 cap rates \u201cmight just be too much.\u201d He does not believe fundamentals will support prices as they did in 2007. On the other hand, certain submarkets offer greater opportunity than others, noted Clinton, pointing to growth in Lower Manhattan and Midtown South.<\/p>\n

Down but Not Out<\/strong>
\nOther big cities offer a mix of recovery and reduction that has attracted a few investors but is largely keeping them at bay.<\/p>\n

The biggest surprise has come from the nation\u2019s capital. Parts of Washington, D.C., continue to offer opportunity, including NoMa (North of Massachusetts Avenue) and City Center, according to Clinton. But the longtime stalwart, perennially considered recession-proof, has lost much of its following this year, thanks to government cutbacks and fear of resultant reductions in business for government contractors. Already, they have shifted to 30- to 60-day continuances rather than the multi-year contracts they previously held, Clinton noted. Overall, investment volume dropped by 16 percent in the first half over the same time last year, with the office sector down 29 percent.<\/p>\n

Fasulo found an even greater drop, at 33 percent overall. \u201cRegardless of which administration gets in next year, the public\u2019s appetite for expanding government is at an end, so we\u2019re not going to see any major expansions in government anymore,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Miami gained followers among Emerging Trends respondents but still represents risk, according to DiRocco. While terming it \u201ca decent market to look at,\u201d he noted that job growth is expected to rise by only about 20 basis points next year\u2014not much of an improvement, considering that the market is still almost 70,000 jobs short of its pre-recession peak. Meanwhile, the housing market continues to be soft, despite reduced completions, he warned.<\/p>\n

Las Vegas is still risky for investors, DiRocco added, and while Detroit showed increased interest among investors at mid-year and is \u201cstarting to show some signs of life,\u201d it still has a long way to go.<\/p>\n

David Gilbert<\/strong>
\nChief Investment Officer\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\n & Head of Acquisitions<\/em>
\nClarion Partners<\/strong>
\nStrong employment growth is primarily in technology, energy and healthcare, while government, finance and construction remain weak. Consequently, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Houston, Austin and Raleigh are high on our target market list, driven by high-growth industries. At this stage of the recovery cycle, we are concentrating on the apartment and industrial sectors. Generally, the greatest opportunities are in a value-add strategy and urban apartment ground-up development. We recently completed several warehouse acquisitions in strategic distribution markets like the Inland Empire, Miami and Northeast Pennsylvania. We also purchased a number of prime office assets in select CBDs including San Francisco, West Los Angeles and Houston.<\/p>\n

Debra Cafaro<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a>Chairman & CEO<\/em>
\nVentas<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are investing in high-quality, private-pay senior living communities and medical office buildings (MOBs) located in the top MSAs because they offer investors core characteristics of good, reliable growth with resiliency in a downturn at above-core returns. In our MOB portfolio, 94 percent of our assets are on campus or affiliated with top hospitals and healthcare systems, and that remains the focus of our investment strategy. In our private-pay seniors housing portfolio of 214 communities managed by Sunrise Senior Living and Atria Senior Living, net operating income increased in the high single digits. Our second-quarter acquisition of 16 communities from Sunrise
\nSenior Living for $362 million includes
\nlocations in top MSAs.<\/p>\n

Patti Morris<\/strong>
\nChief Real Estate Officer\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\nWells Real Estate Funds<\/strong>
\nWells believes in the core investment strategy and continues to invest in institutional-quality real estate, targeting Class A office and industrial buildings with strong credit tenants diversified by industry and long-term leases. We target primary and secondary markets and are particularly interested in cities with historical\/expanding industries, such as energy and technology. These cities typically have a well-educated workforce with solid secondary and post-graduate university systems. They have strong and improving infrastructure that includes public transportation and interstate systems, offering a quality lifestyle for young professionals. We have seen these trends in the major coastal cities but are also seeing improvement in the larger inland cities.<\/p>\n

David Dowell<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a>Director<\/em>
\nThe Praedium Group<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong>We prefer primary and secondary markets with barriers to entry and proven job drivers, a strategy that has only become more important. We see opportunities to buy into growth (multi-family) or buy at attractive discounts (distressed), in combination with value-add strategies to increase cash flows through capital investment and operational execution. We look for multi-family opportunities that have attractive cash-on-cash returns, are the most efficient asset class to finance, are highly liquid (even in secondary markets) and have strong leasing demand growth. We do not invest in tertiary markets. Recent deals include the Alexandria Portfolio outside Washington, D.C.; The Residences at the Collection in Carrollton, Texas; and 33 North in San Rafael, Calif.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indraneel Karlekar<\/strong>
\nExecutive Vice President & Chief Investment Strategist\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\nCole Real Estate Investments<\/strong>
\nRegional patterns of economic growth have historically proven to be significant drivers of demand for commercial real estate. In the current economic cycle,\u00a0industries exposed to\u00a0technology and commodities\u00a0are generating strong economic growth in certain regions, strengthening those commercial real estate markets.\u00a0Markets with exposure to technology-oriented industries\u2014like Seattle, San Francisco, Austin, Raleigh and Boston;\u00a0cities with exposure to\u00a0commodity\u00a0industries, such as Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City; or both, as in the case of Denver\u2014could be strong performers.\u00a0Meanwhile, Phoenix, which attributed much of its pre-recession economic growth to housing,\u00a0continues to\u00a0lag behind.<\/p>\n

Rodney Richerson<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a>Regional President<\/em>
\nKBS Realty Advisors<\/strong>
\nWe typically are looking at the major growth markets across the country for our core real estate investments, with an eye on job growth, population growth, business growth and a variety of other indicators. We also operate an opportunity fund that has been very active securing value-add and opportunistic deals in markets that may not be at the top of our list for well-leased core investments. We will buy an underperforming asset in a tertiary market if the opportunity is right. We are a little hesitant to say which markets carry risk, because where there is risk there can also be great reward. KBS has completed approximately $520 million in acquisition volume since January of this year, and we hope to double that by year-end.<\/p>\n

Richard Mack<\/strong>
\nNorth America CEO\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\nAREA Property Partners<\/strong>
\nWe are looking for mid-teens levered IRRs with levered cash-on-cash yields in the high single\/low double digits. While we have generally been sellers of core office buildings in gateway cities, we have been buyers of other asset classes in non-gateway major markets in the United States that exhibit the same or better job growth but fewer barriers to entry. In many cases, you\u2019re still able to buy well enough below replacement cost in markets like Houston, Dallas and Austin that increasing supply will have a lower impact. Job growth in these markets is driven by some or all of the currently strong U.S. industries: healthcare, education, energy and technology. We\u2019re also relatively bullish on South Florida. We have been net sellers of office in San Francisco and New York.<\/p>\n

Peter DiCorpo<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a>President of the Managed Accounts Group<\/em>
\nCBRE Global Investors<\/strong>
\nMany of our collective clients are still quite interested and quite engaged in markets like New York, San Francisco, Boston, D.C. We\u2019re looking at them, but we\u2019re taking a very cautious approach to them. We\u2019re typically much more focused these days on what we\u2019ve defined as the next-tier cities, cities that have strong fundamentals in terms of rent growth, occupancy and a limited new pipeline of product but aren\u2019t necessarily getting the same level of hype and attention that the trophy cities are getting. These are cities like Austin, Denver, Dallas, Houston, San Diego and Seattle. Energy is obviously very important within some of those major areas. Technology is also very important. And those markets aren\u2019t as overheated.<\/p>\n

Kevin Smith<\/strong>
\nHead of U.S. Business\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\n& Co-Manager of the<\/em>
\nPRISA Fund, Prudential <\/strong>
\nReal Estate Investors<\/strong>
\nWe divide our investing thinking into two different types of markets: longer-term markets, typically markets where there are greater barriers to new supply and a higher level of human capital, a higher level of education, maybe a more entrepreneurial type of people. We think that, long term, those are the markets that are going to drive more job growth. The San Francisco Bay area, New York, Boston, Seattle, Washington, D.C., and San Diego are all examples. The other side would be what I think of as trading markets. Those markets will typically grow more quickly. Most are in the Southeast and Southwest. They\u2019ve got more growth in population and jobs, but they typically have fewer limits on new supply.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Bob Plumb<\/strong>
\nManaging Director<\/em>
\nDirect Investment and Group Acquisitions, AEW Capital Management L.P<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

We use five criteria that we think are really important to be successful in real estate investment. We invest in what we like to call peak-to-peak rental growth markets: markets where there are supply constraints, physical barriers, governmental and legal restrictions, and economic factors that work to keep a market at equilibrium and allow for absolute growth in rent. We also want to invest in markets with educated populations and strong job growth, in markets and properties that will see investment in emerging technologies and industries, as well as those that will benefit from changes in governmental expenditure. And we want to be diversified\u2014not by market and product type but from an economic perspective.<\/p>\n

Martha Peyton<\/strong>
\nHead of Global Real Estate Strategy and Research\"\"<\/a><\/em>
\nTIAA-CREF<\/strong>
\nWe remain largely focused on core properties, with selective interest in value-add and development opportunities. To date, only the six \u201cmajor\u201d markets comprising Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., have shown material recovery in property values, with improvement focused on the best-quality and most desirable locations. We consider historical investment performance. We also evaluate the composition of the investible property universe in each market and its attractiveness to an increasingly globalized investor community. We see coastal markets as offering the strongest supply and demand factors that contribute to investment performance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CPE’s September Special Report gives a mid-year update on the top options for reward over risk and what to avoid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":952,"featured_media":1004048283,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22251],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004048134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-in-focus"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Best and Worst Cities for Investment - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Best and Worst Cities for Investment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CPE's September Special Report gives a mid-year update on the top options for reward over risk and what to avoid.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Commercial Property Executive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/CPExecutive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-09-01T20:38:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-05T00:49:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2012\/10\/Dave-Gilbert.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2100\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Anna Spiewak\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@cpexecutive\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/the-best-and-worst-cities-for-investment\/\",\"name\":\"The Best and Worst Cities for Investment - 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