{"id":1004045661,"date":"2012-08-18T19:16:58","date_gmt":"2012-08-19T03:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004044741"},"modified":"2022-12-06T00:01:55","modified_gmt":"2022-12-06T08:01:55","slug":"best-cities-investors-talk-about-their-strategies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/best-cities-investors-talk-about-their-strategies\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Cities: Investors Talk About Their Strategies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Some of today&#8217;s leading investors spoke with <em>CPE<\/em> editorial director Suzann D. Silverman about their current strategies. Shorter versions of their commentaries appeared as part of the Special Report: The Best and Worst Cities for Investment in the September 2012 issue of <em>CPE<\/em>. Following are the more complete details of their strategies:<\/p>\n<p><strong>David Gilbert<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Chief Investment Officer &amp; Head of Acquisitions<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Clarion Partners<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The country is going through a slow and uneven economic recovery. Strong employment growth is primarily in technology, energy and healthcare, while government, finance and construction remain weak. Consequently, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, Houston, Austin and Raleigh are high on our target market list, driven by high-growth industries.<\/p>\n<p>At this stage of the recovery cycle, Clarion Partners is concentrating on the apartment and industrial sectors, which are outperforming other property types. Generally, the greatest opportunities are in a value-add strategy and urban apartment ground-up development. Clarion Partners recently completed several warehouse acquisitions in strategic distribution markets like the Inland Empire (Calif.), Miami and Northeast Pa. We also purchased a number of prime office assets in select CBDs including San Francisco, West Los Angeles and Houston.<\/p>\n<p>Although core property returns have compressed over the past two years, we believe that attractive relative returns\u2014in comparison to stocks or bonds\u2014can be achieved in this real estate cycle. Due to the global economic slowdown\u2014attributed mainly to the euro-zone debt crisis, which has worsened over the past quarter\u2014the U.S. economic recovery has slowed. We are taking a more cautious approach to our investment selection, although our investment strategies and target markets have not changed.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Debra Cafaro<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Chairman &amp; CEO<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Ventas<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We are investing in\u00a0high-quality, private-pay senior living communities and medical office buildings (MOBs) located in the top MSAs because they offer investors core characteristics of good, reliable growth with resiliency in a downturn at above-core returns.<\/p>\n<p>In our MOB portfolio, 94 percent of our assets are on campus or affiliated with top hospitals and healthcare systems, and that remains the focus of our investment strategy. Our second-quarter acquisition of Cogdell Spencer for $760 million is a good example. Its 71 MOBs, mostly located in the Southeast, are affiliated with a dozen highly rated healthcare systems.<\/p>\n<p>In our private-pay seniors housing portfolio of 214 communities managed by Sunrise Senior Living and Atria Senior Living, net operating income increased in the high single digits.\u00a0 Our second-quarter acquisition of 16 communities from Sunrise for $362 million includes locations in top MSAs.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Richard Mack<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>North America CEO<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>AREA Property Partners<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We are looking for mid-teens levered IRRs with levered cash-on-cash yields in the high single\/low double digits. While we have generally been sellers of core office buildings in gateway cities, we have been buyers of other asset classes in non-gateway major markets in the United States that exhibit the same or better job growth but fewer barriers to entry. In many cases, you\u2019re still able to buy well enough below replacement cost in markets like Houston, Dallas and Austin, so that increasing supply, the risk in these high-growth markets, will have a lower impact. These markets are also characterized by having better-than-average growth prospects for jobs, driven by some or all of the currently strong U.S. industries: healthcare, education, energy and technology. Other important factors are very good population growth and positive financial leverage, i.e. cap rates in excess of borrowing costs.<\/p>\n<p>We see this opportunity as being especially prominent in the multi-family rental side, which we also believe has solid demand fundamentals nationwide. You can still buy good risk-adjusted returns in multi-family apartments in these Texas markets.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re also relatively bullish on South Florida. There\u2019s a little less job growth\u2014although it\u2019s stronger there than many places in the United States\u2014but it\u2019s becoming more and more a gateway to Latin America, and you see more and more capital going there and driving the economy. We generally won\u2019t buy office there, but certainly multi-family and, with the increases expected for commercial trade volume in Miami\u2019s port, distribution.<\/p>\n<p>We have been net sellers of office in San Francisco and New York, and have not been buyers of multi-family in these two gateway markets because of negative financial leverage. However, multi-family development is starting to make sense to us because we see sale values for cash-flowing assets at well above replacement cost. We are not necessarily building in the more established\/main locations but rather in less established locations such as Jersey City and Williamsburg in New York and places like lower Pacific Heights in San Francisco that are around the fringes of established markets for rentals. We believe new neighborhoods are going to have to emerge, given rental rates. You can build on the fringes of these cities at favorable rates relative to exit cap rates. In New York, technology and media are driving the economy on the margin. In San Francisco, it\u2019s technology, but more and more the media side of technology companies that want to be downtown. They\u2019re driving rates not just for office but for multi-family.<\/p>\n<p>Some technology companies are looking for space in Seattle because their employees want to be in a creative urban environment, and creative space has become so expensive in San Francisco. Seattle is rapidly urbanizing, with more and more people wanting to be located in offices and apartments in the urban core, but because there is little multi-family with positive leverage available to buy in Seattle, we are developing multi-family there, too.<\/p>\n<p>We also like bulk distribution, and we\u2019re trying to invest in markets that are going to be disproportionately driven by growth in the U.S. of e-commerce and global trade.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Peter DiCorpo<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> President of the Managed Accounts Group<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> CBRE Global Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Many of our collective clients are still quite interested and quite engaged in markets like New York, San Francisco, Boston, D.C. There are still some opportunities in those markets to the extent that you have good solid rent growth in most of the product types;\u00a0 you also have good demand. We\u2019re looking at them, but we\u2019re taking a very cautious approach to them. We\u2019re typically much more focused these days on what we\u2019ve defined in our organization as the next-tier cities, cities that have strong fundamentals in terms of rent growth, occupancy and a limited new pipeline of product but aren\u2019t necessarily getting the same level of hype and attention that the trophy cities are getting. These are cities like Austin, Denver, Dallas, Houston, San Diego and Seattle. A couple of things are driving them. Energy is obviously very important within some of those major areas. Technology is also very important. And those markets aren\u2019t as overheated.<\/p>\n<p>D.C. is not a market we have a major focus on, although we\u2019re still looking at opportunities there. With the public sector slowing, it\u2019s definitely cooling down, and you\u2019re going to see very little real estate activity in D.C. through the election. It\u2019s gotten a little bit soft on the office side. That being said, many of the foreign investors are still excited about the D.C. market, so you\u2019re getting a softer market but you\u2019re not getting much softening in the pricing. Right now, we view D.C. as not appropriately valued for what we want to do.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re investing across the spectrum. We\u2019re looking at some core for some of our investors, but we\u2019re also looking at value-add for one of our funds. We think value-add is the next stage of investing in this cycle. People, I think, are getting their sea legs back with regard to real estate and willing to take on a little bit more risk. Not a ton of risk, but a little bit more risk.<\/p>\n<p>We would like to be more active in multi-family development\u2014I still think there are some selected opportunities in office and industrial, but multi-family development is a great opportunity. The demographics for multi-family are tremendous right now, with the Echo Boom generation trying to get out of mom and dad\u2019s basement and get into their own apartments. The pipeline, while more active than any of the other product types, is still well below our historical averages. I think there\u2019s also opportunity to acquire multi-family, even though cap rates have come down considerably since the downturn. That really is the asset class that has recovered the best.<\/p>\n<p>We also think that office offers a great opportunity for investment, and we like industrial. Your neighborhood grocery-anchored stores in areas of high demographics, where there\u2019s a good level of wealth, are also great opportunities, and you should take advantage of those any chance you get.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kevin Smith<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Senior Managing Director, Head of U.S. Business<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Prudential Real Estate Investors<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We divide our investing thinking into two different types of markets. One would be longer-term markets, typically markets where there are greater barriers to new supply and a higher level of human capital, a higher level of education, maybe a more entrepreneurial type of people. We think that, long term; those are the markets that are going to drive more job growth. The San Francisco Bay area, New York, Boston, Seattle, Washington, D.C., and San Diego are all examples. The other side would be what I think of as trading markets. Those markets will typically grow more quickly. Most of them are in the Southeast and Southwest United States. They\u2019ve got more growth in terms of population and jobs, but they typically have fewer limits on new supply, which makes the timing of entering and exiting that much more important. The larger markets are places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte\u2014major markets, but in general we would look at them as short-term holds.<\/p>\n<p>The thing that has changed in our view is the importance of focusing on the human capital element in these longer-term markets. It\u2019s not enough to be a large market; it\u2019s not enough to be a market where it\u2019s hard to build. \u00a0We\u2019ll focus more on markets where those drivers of growth are around people who are highly educated and are interested in building businesses, and the environment in the area is supportive of that\u2014it has a human capital infrastructure, if you will. That just encourages more innovation and more job growth. These markets are faring better generally as they come out of the Great Recession because of those attributes.<\/p>\n<p>We typically deal across our funds in the top 20 metros in the United States. We have not done a lot in tertiary markets and don\u2019t plan to. In most times we just don\u2019t feel like you\u2019re getting paid for the extra risk\u2014either leasing risk or liquidity risk. The returns outside of the five or six prime markets in the U.S. are more attractive today, and recently we\u2019ve spent more time in those markets looking for opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve spent the last couple of years focused significantly on apartments, mainly via development, financing that with various development partners. To date, the bulk of that activity has been in the trading markets to try to take advantage of the surge in apartment demand that goes along with population and job growth. \u00a0We\u2019re also looking at more urban investments, so we\u2019re doing many more infill apartments\u2014a lot of them are midrise, some high-rise. I expect that our apartment activity is going to pull back some as we go forward just because we don\u2019t expect the same level of rent growth over the next two or three years that we\u2019ve had over the last two years.<\/p>\n<p>We continue to exercise caution in certain metro areas. For example, we\u2019re going to be very selective in looking at opportunities in Chicago. And we are being a little bit more cautious about how we underwrite rents in Washington, D.C., because the jury\u2019s out as to what the trajectory of the growth there is going to be going forward, because it feels like this may be a little bit more permanent than an election year hiccup. We like Washington, D.C. long term for a lot of reasons but we\u2019re a little cautious right now.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bob Plumb<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Managing Director of Direct Investment and Group Acquisitions<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> AEW Capital Management L.P.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We use five criteria that we think are really important to be successful in real estate investment. We invest in what we like to call peak-to-peak rental growth markets: markets where there are supply constraints, physical barriers, governmental and legal restrictions, and economic factors that work to keep a market at equilibrium and allow for absolute growth in rent. Markets that have done that are Boston and New York and West L.A., parts of Seattle.<\/p>\n<p>We also want to invest in markets with educated populations and strong job growth. We seek to exploit the changing demographics of America: the aging Baby Boomers, the coming of the Age of the Echo Boomers and immigration trends.<\/p>\n<p>The third criteria we call \u201ctracking the money.\u201d \u00a0We want to invest in markets and properties that will see investment in emerging technologies and industries, as well as those that will benefit from changes in governmental expenditure. We want to be in liquid markets. We\u2019re also very sensitive to what I would call a liquidity premium. If we are going to go to a market other than a major market, we would really take a look at the liquidity premium there and figure out what it is really going to cost us to exit. We\u2019ve invested in Portland, Ore., particularly downtown Portland. We\u2019ve made investments in Albuquerque, N.M.<\/p>\n<p>The fourth filter is globalization. We want to be in the path of continued globalization and we want to take advantage of trends and markets that are affected by globalization and the world economy.<\/p>\n<p>And then we want to be diversified\u2014not by market and product type but from an economic perspective.<\/p>\n<p>We focused on 12 to 15 markets two or three years ago, and now we probably have a universe that is double that: 30 markets. We are still applying the same criteria, though, and we\u2019re really focusing on markets that have specific economic drivers, such as education and healthcare. We tranche the markets every quarter into top tier, second tier and third tier. In some cases, markets come back. Atlanta is a good example of that. Atlanta has a very diversified, strong economy, and you\u2019re actually seeing improved job growth there.<\/p>\n<p>There is a segment of Florida that I think is very safe, West Palm to Miami\u2014it\u2019s healed really quickly. And now you\u2019re seeing recovery in Tampa-Clearwater, then next it\u2019s going to be Orlando. Texas has always been a very solid, stable market\u2014it\u2019s the Energizer Bunny from an economic standpoint. It\u2019s got great job growth, great numbers and it never really fell. \u00a0And then you\u2019ve got energy\u2014we like energy right now, so we\u2019re mining the Houston Energy Corridor a great deal.<\/p>\n<p>Another market that we\u2019ve moved into in the last two years is Denver. We\u2019re very intrigued by what\u2019s going on there. We\u2019re not jumping exclusively into secondary markets, but opportunities are limited for institutional investors in some of the major markets so we are trying to be smart when we go into smaller markets. We\u2019ve looked at the Southeast, like Raleigh and Charlotte. Same with Minneapolis. Salt Lake City has got great numbers, and we\u2019re looking at opportunities there, as well.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019re doing development in multi-family. We\u2019re also building industrial. Retail, we\u2019ve focused on redeveloping. We like retail because there are so many different product types, and it tends to get broad-brushed with a pretty negative point of view. We\u2019ve been able to find some diamonds in the rough and reposition them in different markets.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Martha Peyton<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Head of Global Real Estate Strategy and Research<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> TIAA-CREF<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We remain largely focused on core properties, with selective interest in value-add and development opportunities.\u00a0 To date, only the six \u201cmajor\u201d markets comprising Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., have shown material recovery in property values, with improvement focused on the best-quality and most desirable locations. While we have focused our investments in these markets over the last two years, we are not limiting our attention to them exclusively.<\/p>\n<p>We take a research-based approach to targeting markets for investment.\u00a0 We consider historical investment performance versus benchmarks, current market conditions, supply discipline, employment composition and demographic vitality.\u00a0 We also evaluate the composition of the investible property universe in each market and its attractiveness to an increasingly globalized investor community.\u00a0 This analytical process points us toward the coastal markets among the six noted above, plus a number of less prominent coastal markets. We see coastal markets as offering the strongest supply and demand factors that contribute to investment performance.<\/p>\n<p>In our view, the uncertain path of the U.S. economy, especially given the ongoing Eurozone financial crisis, is the chief risk facing real estate investors. This uncertainty is reinforcing the dominance of the most liquid markets; however, we also find that deal flow in the smaller coastal markets is adequate to address our appetite.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Patti Morris<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Chief Real Estate Officer<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Wells Real Estate Funds<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wells Real Estate Funds believes in the core investment strategy and continues to invest in institutional-quality real estate, targeting Class A office and industrial buildings, with strong credit tenants diversified by industry and long-term leases.<\/p>\n<p>We target primary and secondary markets and are particularly interested in cities with historical\/expanding industries, such as the energy sector and technology industry. These cities typically have a well-educated workforce with solid secondary and post-graduate university systems. They have strong and improving infrastructure that includes public transportation and interstate systems, offering a quality lifestyle for young professionals. These markets are experiencing recovering market fundamentals, increased demand in office space, trending toward increased rental rates and growing returns for investors.<\/p>\n<p>We certainly have seen these trends in the major coastal cities but are also seeing improvement in the larger inland cities such as Chicago and Denver, where we have recently completed transactions.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>David Dowell<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Director<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> The Praedium Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We prefer primary and secondary markets with barriers to entry and proven job drivers, a strategy that has only become more important. We see opportunities to buy into growth (multi-family) or buy at attractive discounts (distressed), in combination with value-add strategies to increase cash flows through capital investment and operational execution. We look for multi-family opportunities that have attractive cash-on-cash returns, are the most efficient asset class to finance, are highly liquid (even in secondary markets) and have strong leasing demand growth. We do not invest in tertiary markets.<\/p>\n<p>Some examples of deals we transacted recently include the purchase of the Alexandria Portfolio.The Portfolio is just 14 miles outside Washington, D.C., and within three miles of the Franconia-Springfield and Van Dorn Metro stations, as well as several major interstates, including I-495, I-95 and I-395. It is located within the jurisdiction of the Kingstowne Residential Owners Corp., a master-planned community, and residents are zoned for the Fairfax County Public School System, one of the top school systems in Virginia. The area is also recognized as the most populous jurisdiction in the Washington, D.C., metro area and a major hub for economic activity.<\/p>\n<p>The Residences at the Collection is located in the Carrollton submarket of Dallas, where REIS is projecting cumulative rent growth of 23.6 percent over the next five years. It is ideally located in close proximity to a number of neighborhood destinations and amenities, and is served by the Lewisville Independent School District, a preferred school district in northwest Dallas, and offers an easy commute to numerous Fortune 500 employers located in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.<\/p>\n<p>33 North is in San Rafael, Calif., in the affluent Marin County submarket, which has one of the highest median household income averages in the nation, as well as strong anti-development sentiment that has created severe supply constraints. The highest-quality asset in the area, the property is located directly off U.S. Route 101, and is only 15 miles from Downtown San Francisco. The property was acquired through a 363 Bankruptcy sale, at a significant discount to replacement cost and construction cost.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Indraneel Karlekar, Ph.D.<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Executive Vice President &amp; Chief Investment Strategis<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Cole Real Estate Investments\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Regional patterns of economic growth have historically proven to be significant drivers of demand for commercial real estate. In the current economic cycle,\u00a0industries exposed to\u00a0technology and commodities\u00a0are generating strong economic growth in certain regions of the country, strengthening those commercial real estate markets.\u00a0Markets with exposure to technology-oriented industries\u2014like Seattle, San Francisco, Austin, Raleigh and Boston;\u00a0cities with exposure to\u00a0commodity\u00a0industries, such as Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City; or both, as in the case of Denver\u2014could be strong performers.<\/p>\n<p>These patterns are already beginning to surface: According to CBRE Group Inc.,\u00a0reported\u00a0net asking office rents\u00a0remained broadly unchanged in the first half of 2012\u00a0on a national basis,\u00a0but\u00a0they continued to register impressive growth in\u00a0San Francisco\u00a0(14 percent)\u00a0and\u00a0Denver (7 percent), and continued their\u00a0positive trend in Houston (2 percent), Oklahoma City (2 percent) and Austin (1 percent). Meanwhile, Phoenix (-3 percent), which saw much of its pre-recession economic growth attributable to housing,\u00a0continued to\u00a0lag behind.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rodney Richerson<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Regional President<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> KBS Realty Advisors<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We typically are looking at the major growth markets across the country for our core real estate investments with an eye on job growth, population growth, business growth and a variety of other indicators. We also operate an opportunity fund that has been very active securing value-add and opportunistic deals in markets that may not be at the top of our list for well-leased core investments. We will buy an underperforming asset in a tertiary market if the opportunity is right. We are a little hesitant to say which markets carry risk, because where there is risk there can also be great reward.<\/p>\n<p>KBS has completed approximately $520 million in acquisition volume since January of this year, and we hope to double that by year-end. Some of the key transactions have included\u00a0Bellevue Technology Center in Bellevue, Wash. (formerly QBE Corporate Campus); Martin&#8217;s Point, a 256-unit apartment community in Lombard, Ill.; Gateway Tech Center in Salt Lake City; Legacy Town Center in Plano, Texas; and Summit I &amp; II in Reston, Va.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Leading investors speak with CPE editorial director Suzann D. Silverman about their current strategies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":755,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37301],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004045661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Best Cities: Investors Talk About Their Strategies - Commercial Property Executive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/best-cities-investors-talk-about-their-strategies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Best Cities: Investors Talk About Their Strategies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Leading investors speak with CPE editorial director Suzann D. 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