{"id":1004032841,"date":"2011-10-05T10:32:15","date_gmt":"2011-10-05T18:32:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/?p=1004032841"},"modified":"2022-11-30T23:35:27","modified_gmt":"2022-12-01T07:35:27","slug":"lodging-sectors-fortunes-tied-to-the-larger-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/lodging-sectors-fortunes-tied-to-the-larger-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Lodging Sector&#8217;s Fortunes Tied to the Larger Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Maria Maslovsky,<\/strong><br \/>\n<em>Assistant Vice President, Moody\u2019s<\/em><br \/>\n<a class=\"highslide\" href=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/REIT-Maslovsky_Maria2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1004032842\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/lodging-sectors-fortunes-tied-to-the-larger-economy\/reit-maslovsky_maria2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/REIT-Maslovsky_Maria2.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"350,490\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"REIT &#8211; Maslovsky_Maria2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/REIT-Maslovsky_Maria2.jpg?w=350\" src=\"https:\/\/www.commercialsearch.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/46\/2011\/10\/REIT-Maslovsky_Maria2.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"REIT - Maslovsky_Maria2\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" class=\"alignright size-thumbnail wp-image-1004032842\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The lodging sector, having experienced the sharpest downturn of the REIT property sectors during the recent recession, was on the quick path to recovery in 2010 and into early 2011. The dramatic fall and equally striking rise \u2013 with revenue per available room, or RevPAR, dropping and then increasing at double-digit rates \u2013 have once again demonstrated that lodging is the most volatile of the property sectors because of its shortest \u201clease term\u201d \u2013 typically, one night.<\/p>\n<p>The latest recovery was due primarily to business travel, which grew in tandem with corporate profits as the recession dissipated and the capital markets stabilized. \u00a0The increase in profits led to the resumption of meetings and conventions, which brought back corporate bookings. \u00a0In contrast, leisure travel remained lackadaisical owing to persistently high unemployment and tepid consumer confidence.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the fundamentals of the hospitality business have been positive. \u00a0The historically minuscule supply has been particularly encouraging for an industry known for boom-and-bust cycles brought on by overbuilding. \u00a0For the remainder of 2011 and into 2012, the key question for the industry, as well as for the U.S. economy in general, will be whether the demand will exist. \u00a0Lodging is a pro-cyclical segment of the economy, and as economic growth slowed in the summer, so did RevPAR, which declined from a year-to-date (through August 2011) growth rate of 8.1 percent, to 7.2 percent in the month of August, according to Smith Travel Research. \u00a0On the positive side, however, the first two weeks of September bounced back, with 12.8 percent and 10.1 percent year-over-year RevPAR growth, followed by 8.3 percent in the third week of September, also according to STR. Although these latest trends are encouraging, the industry dynamics, in the context of a broader macroeconomic equilibrium, are still fragile.<\/p>\n<p>We believe that this uncertain environment is likely to affect the REITs unevenly, with the extent of the impact depending on the dominant chain scale in their portfolios. \u00a0Luxury properties have performed the best on the upswing (while suffering some of the worst losses during the downturn), with upper-upscale, upscale and midscale properties posting weaker but still positive growth. \u00a0Nevertheless, absent a severe exogenous event or significant macro-economic deterioration, we do not anticipate a material decline in the lodging REITs\u2019 credit quality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Maria Maslovsky, <\/strong><em>Assistant Vice President, Moody&#8217;s<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The dramatic fall and equally striking rise of RevPAR in the hospitality sector has once again demonstrated that lodging is the most volatile of the property sectors because of its shortest &#8220;lease term&#8221; &#8212; typically, one night. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1201,"featured_media":1004032842,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37301],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1004032841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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